Posted on 10/30/2020 4:32:06 AM PDT by Cathi
Video of Patrick Basham (Democracy Institute) interview by Canadian news. His poll has Trump 46; Biden 45.
This company got it right during 2016. They are going to publish their next poll Nov. 1.
Says that there are more "shy" Trump voters than last year. And that they are blacks, Hispanics and educated suburban women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHM1MnRmjB0&feature=emb_logo
I think he will win but I have to admit, it’s looking pretty dicey at this point. Back in 2016 starting ten days before the election Hillary was diving in the polls. Biden on the other hand is doing the opposite, he has been going up....HOW? I sure as hell do not know......
CNN as your source. Go back to your corner and suck your thumb.
The battleground polls are the only ones that matter and Trump is just 3.2 pts. down (within the margin of error) which, by the way, is the smallest it has been since June. So Trump is going up not down.
But, more importantly, the “shy” Trump voters are not in ANY poll and the 3 top pollsters (read: most accurate over the last several cycles) say that there are more “shys” this time than in 2016. Cahaly from Trafalgar says they are “double.”
“educated suburban women”
Wow, they exist? LOL. Probably country gals like myself who moved to a city for God knows what reason. (snickering)
“Expects Trump to be re-elected”
Who woke this guy up? I mean that train left the station long ago!!
Trump voters were mostly just laughed at in 2016 (prior to the election, at least). Now it’s much, much worse. Would not be surprised at all if there’s a lot more shy Trump voters this time around.
Will it be enough? There are also a lot more Marxist traitors in the US than I thought...
Those polls are bogus. But the question is whether Trump can overcome the massive fraud.
It’s not only the “shy” voter but just like 16 there will be a lot of folks who haven’t voted in a lot of elections showing up for Trump. Polls don’t catch them because they are considered “unlikely” voters if target get polled at all.
They either fell for the fear mongering in 16 or felt Trump was just another politician making promises he had no intention of keeping. 4 years later they know better and will show up.
Actually since most “educated” suburban women are not Trump fans it isn’t comfortable in their social circle for them to volunteer that they are going to vote for Trump. So they keep it to themselves and don’t get counted in polls. Just like blacks who support Trump or Hispanics.
But, they do vote...:-)
Basham feels those 3 groups will make up the biggest portion of “shy” voters.
In Rich Baris’s polls (People’s Pundit) he asked the question “Are there a significant number of “shy” Trump voters. 65% said yes; 17% said no.
In Arizona 81% said yes....guess they are very shy in Arizona.
Then he asked all of them if they were “uncomfortable” telling a pollster who they intend to vote for. 4 out of 10 said they were.
Yes, Cahaly says that “low propensity voters” (people who have only voted once or twice in 20 years) are the biggest group of new voters he is finding.
It reminds me of those after rally reports that almost always show about 25% of the people at Trump rallies have not voted in 2016 or at all.
“”””“educated suburban women”
Wow, they exist? LOL. Probably country gals like myself who moved to a city for God knows what reason. (snickering)””””
My wife is technically one of those. We live in the burbs just west of Minneapolistan. Not so much by choice but as a necessity for income and such. Once she retires in two years we will move back to America.
She got a call from a pollster a few days ago. She said...I don’t give my opinions to strangers and hung up.
If her employer and fellow employees knew she was a Trump supporter they would throw her out a window. Government people don’t have much time for Trump.
So we live in a world now where you can’t say things without serious repercussions. We could not put out a Trump yard sign here because of the real threat of violence. I don’t wear my Trump gear in public here. A few weeks ago the BLM thugs came out and blocked off a main street for an afternoon. Why? Just because they could. The suburbanites didn’t think too highly of that.
She will go vote today and pull the lever for every Republican on the ticket. So will millions more just like her.
I learned something interesting this week: To be a likely voter one needed to have voted last time. Does this mean that’s an early screening question for pollsters, who stop the interview at that point? Not sure, but if that’s true the polls aren’t picking up the huge % who, for example, show up at trump rallies but haven’t voted before
Different pollsters have different formulas for being considered a likely voter though recent voting history is a large component of it.
But, yes, you are right that those “low propensity voters” that are a large part of Trump rallies are much less likely to be polled.
Give her a hug for me :)
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