The battleground polls are the only ones that matter and Trump is just 3.2 pts. down (within the margin of error) which, by the way, is the smallest it has been since June. So Trump is going up not down.
But, more importantly, the “shy” Trump voters are not in ANY poll and the 3 top pollsters (read: most accurate over the last several cycles) say that there are more “shys” this time than in 2016. Cahaly from Trafalgar says they are “double.”
It’s not only the “shy” voter but just like 16 there will be a lot of folks who haven’t voted in a lot of elections showing up for Trump. Polls don’t catch them because they are considered “unlikely” voters if target get polled at all.
They either fell for the fear mongering in 16 or felt Trump was just another politician making promises he had no intention of keeping. 4 years later they know better and will show up.
I learned something interesting this week: To be a likely voter one needed to have voted last time. Does this mean that’s an early screening question for pollsters, who stop the interview at that point? Not sure, but if that’s true the polls aren’t picking up the huge % who, for example, show up at trump rallies but haven’t voted before