The Polls Are Pumpkin Goo. (Larry Schweikart Twitter thread)

LS Via Twitter ^ | 10/5/2020 | By Larry Schweikart

[Lazamataz]

1. Folks I am pissed. (I NEVER use that word, so excuse me). But this is ridiculous.
   
   
2. First, if you're new, I don't "do" polls because they are flat out lying. However, I think it is legit to ask not only if they are lying (they are) but WHY?
   
   
3. There are several explanations.
   
   Explanation 1: They lie because they are in such a bubble that they have pre-conceived notions of what the poll "should" show. Living in their NY/DC bubbles, with their Swamp friends, they "know" that Americans must hate Drumpf. That means that they view any and all results that do not conform to this as "outliers" and somehow corrupted data. Since it's got to be wrong, they adjust and "correct" til they get the "right" data.
   
   If any of you are in science you know this completely defies the notion of data. You are entitled to ask why the results differed from your hypothesis, but are not allowed to constantly scream at the data "YOU'RE WRONG!"
   
   
4. This Explanation 1 is more or less a cultural/behavioral view of why polls are pathetic. Except for Trafalgar, Richard Baris/Big Data, and Democracy Institute, none of the people in the big polling orgs are "for" Trump. They have no problem viewing data this way.
   
   Explanation 2: They are setting the stage for 4 years of "resistance" due to "but the polls said. . . therefore muh Russia/Borneo interference."
   
   I'm less likely to believe this one only because it requires a level of planning and conspiracy that I'm not sure they possess....it IS possible however. Who would have thought prior to 2016 that a dozen or more FBI, CIA, DOJ employees would literally conspire to stage a coup because someone they didn't like gained the presidency?
   
   In Explanation 2, they know their numbers are pumpkin goo, useless fecal droppings of iguanas. But it doesn't matter. The purpose is to ignite the WLs to new Drumpf hate after Nov. 3.
   
   NOTE: Explanation 2 goes very well with the effort to delay the certification of votes. When the first stories about Trump winning a "landslide" on election night, but it wouldn't be real cuz, you know, VBMs began to surface, I think this explanation of polling can make sense.
   
   I won't rule it out.
   
   
5. Explanation 3: Self-delusion. This kind of goes with #1, but in this version the pollsters have convinced themselves that since Trump "must be" losing, they need to develop data that proves it.
   
   Their samples, after all, were wrong. So as we heard last week, one thing they appear to be doing is on the surface keeping their DemoKKKrat/Republican splits "accurate" (that is, close to what they are "supposed to be".) This in itself is a problem. Any poll of OH that isn't R+4 or R+5 is pterodactyl dung.
   
   So here is how they do it: the LABELS are correct (i.e., they interview 38% "Republicans") but the PEOPLE they target are not at all "random" Republicans.
   
   What they have done is to zip-code target the shakiest of R suburbs where the Karens mass.
   
   These will likely be more anti-Trump. But they AVOID the heavy red rural areas. In AZ, for example, they sample only Rs in, say, Tempe while avoiding those in Bullhead City.
   
   When it comes to "DemoKKKrats," same thing in reverse: they avoid any Ds in industrial, manufacturing areas with high unemployment due to trade and instead focus on urban whites.
   
   
6. They they twiddle with all this via their "turnout" models, which as I've shown are appearing to be horribly flawed.
   
   For example, in very early NC and FL vote by mail (VBM) we are seeing a noticeable shortfall in 18-24 year olds.
   
   Dese "Yuts" would be college kids who . . .
   
   AREN'T ON CAMPUS. They do NOT tend to vote by mail or from home. Their "turnout" falls 30% if not on campus.
   
   
7. Do you think one single pollster has accounted for this?
   
   
8. Another piece of data that doesn't fit their preconceptions is R turnout and the infamous "shy Trump" voter. So they miss millions this way.
   
   
9. Whichever of the three motivations for the pollsters you accept, realize that I think even the "good" pollsters such as Trafalgar, Democracy Institute, and Big Data are still going to miss a lot of the student/shy Trumper effects.
   
   
10. I think even the "good" polls are off.
    
    
11. Just one last point before we leave this: we KNOW none of this is just incompetence or "accidental."
    
    Easy.
    
    Why? Because if it was accidental, we'd get polls that were just as often off in TRUMP'S FAVOR as against him. But that never happens, does it?
    
    
12. So as a somewhat related addendum, for those of you who watch Faux and Tokyo Rove, his explanation for the recent Faux poll is that DemoKKKrats are fleeing the blue states like CA and NY and going to AZ, NV, NM, CO, on the west coast and FL, NC on the east.
    
    Small problem.
    
    In every single one of these states except CO, the GOP registration has not only outpaced DemoKKKrats, but has done so at substantial rates.
    
    FL is the best example, where Rs shaved 3/4 of a million voters off the D lead in 8 years.
    
    
13. In AZ, although there was a temporary D surge, Rs have again padded their lead with 20,000 more voters in the last few months for a 100,000 lead.
    
    (Oh, gee: in the GOP primary McSally/McCarthy had 100,000 more votes than Kelly. What a surprise).
    
    
14. In other words, except for Colorado, IF the new voters are from CA or NY, they appear to be the Republicans and conservatives who are fleeing!!
    
    
15. The best I can tell you then is, we have on one hand (polls) manipulated sets of opinions about what people say they plan to do.
    
    On the other hand, we have ACTUAL NUMBERS from voters based on their D/R ballot requests. Based on addresses, we know that . . . SO FAR . . . Ds are below their VBM targets in key states (NC, FL), that their Yut vote is underperforming 2016 and the black vote is underperforming 2016---which underperformed 2012!!
    
    All of this, I admit, assumes something very big: that Republicans will, for the most part vote Trump and DemoKKKrats for the most part will vote Biteme.
    
    For every suburban Karen, I can produce a black Trump vote.
    
    Therefore, until or unless I see REAL DATA--not made up swillpillow lugie-laden manipulated polling---I have to conclude that they are horribly wrong.
    
    I leave it to you to decide why.

[Lazamataz]

Swillpillow lugie-laden pterodactyl dung.

God, I love Larry's writing. LOL!

It's a very good assessment, the first two explanations Larry provides coincides with a premise I have, that I will expand on in an editorial of my own. In my thesis, I note that Biden-laden polls are a Win/Win for Democrats. Stay tuned for that editorial.

[Lazamataz]

Larry, if you want, why don’t you begin to ping me, maybe by phone text or maybe by Freepmail, when you write one of these. I’ll format and crosspost here.

[Lazamataz]

Another point I would add is that the fact that President Trump seems to be returning full-force after having contracted — then DEFEATED — the coronavirus, at the age of 73, while being pressured by the stresses of being president AND campaigning for re-election.....

And thus, I don’t see any other outcome than a vast increase in the polls. VAST.

"Sympathy-bump" in the polls? No no no... more like an "Invincibility-bump" in the polls, particularly among hispanics and black men. They dig a strong male leader.

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[Lazamataz]

A fun read.

[Larry Lucido]

Thank you.

[ClearCase_guy]

Explanation 2 goes very well with the effort to delay the certification of votes. When the first stories about Trump winning a "landslide" on election night, but it wouldn't be real cuz, you know, VBMs began to surface, I think this explanation of polling can make sense.

Certainly this is my fear. It's gaslighting -- convincing people that "everyone" hates Trump and will vote for Biden. Then they can produce chaos after the election as they "struggle to count" the votes. And eventually they will produce the results that "everyone" expects and demand that Trump leave the White House.

[FreedomPoster]

Encouraging for sure.

[Lazamataz]

I believe they want to win the election BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY, but the inflated polls are a component of a backup plan: Civil disorder.

And I hope President Trump goes all “Josef Stalin” on the rioters, and “Augusto Pinochet” on the leaders.

[PghBaldy]

The one group that concerns me in general, didn’t check this poll though, is old people. College kids not voting is good, but are they enough to cancel out any weakness in elderly voters?

[Pete Dovgan]

I believe they want to win the election BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY, but the inflated polls are a component of a backup plan: Civil disorder.

You got to ask yourself what is on the line for the Democrats? Do they believe that Trump is closing in on exposing them to the public, including taking down 2 former POTUS, because of illegal activity. How many co-conspirators go to jail in this scenario? How many loose jobs at the CIA, NSA, FBI, EPA, IRS for being corrupt political tools of the Democrats? How many Repbulicans follow? How about the money stream? Maybe it isn’t even jail we are talking about, it’s the more traditional way to deal with traitors. Hillary Clinton ‘If he’s elected we all can hang’.

Those are some big stakes at the poker table. Now, lets throw in a few states that have destroyed themselves to support the Democratic agenda, like California, Illinois, NY, and the list goes on. Then a few cities that have been gutted in an attempt to remove Trump. Perhaps a few thousand dead from a pesky virus...... Oh I am sure people can connect the dots when the ‘truth’ start to fall.

Their plan is to win by any means, because they know they are already ‘dead’ if they loose. Like a cornered animal it will fight because it has no choice. They can’t cheat enough in the election, then they will go for civil war with assistance from foreign governments....LIKE CHINA and other ‘Socialist’ utopia’s.

Stay alert, don’t be caught wondering ‘if’. People who have been watching understand this isn’t about the SCOTUS or Abortion for the Democrats, it’s about survival.

[knarf]

TRUMP IN AN UNDISPUTED LANDSLIDE ....

I believe the numbers will overwhelm even the outstanding nail ins.

[napscoordinator]

Interesting about Arizona. That definitely is why they just extended registration to October 23rd. Yep an Obama judge saw the numbers and said,”oh crap. And gave a huge extension.” Yesterday was supposed to be the last day. Blamed covid of course.

[Raycpa]

The media is the customer and the customer is always right.

[GLDNGUN]

Fake Polls are a fact of life. Larry says he doesn’t do polls and has also said the media will never be fair to The Right so not even Trump should whine about it. LS starts this tweet off by saying how “pissed” he is...but then never explains about what. He lays out possible reasons or the point of Fake News Polls but if he is “pissed” about something, what is it?

[SmokingJoe]

Finally, an accurate poll?

Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win. Although majorities of partisans think their party's candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/finally_an_accurate_poll.html

[rlmorel]

Thanks for the ping, Laz...hope all is well with you and yours!

Good analysis by the famed LS...I agree with almost all of it.

I have stopped accepting polls decades ago. I just think they either manipulate the population polled to get what they want, or they manipulate the modeling and assumptions to get what they want.

And with the media, the VAST majority of the time, they have a result they want, and it is almost 100% of the time in direct opposition to what I want, so...I don’t pay attention to them.

Thanks for posting it.

[Lazamataz]

LS starts this tweet off by saying how “pissed” he is...but then never explains about what.

Try again.

[RinaseaofDs]

Uncharacteristic for LS. For me, I chalk all of this up to cognitive dissonance - the throngs turning out for DJT. Flotillas. Vigils, with people pledging they would DIE to protect this man.

Vs.

Car parades of four cars for a senile predator of children who is being carried across the finish line by people who you probably live in homes with no mirrors. If they did have mirrors, they’d have to look themselves in the eye and ask that dude, “Really?”

And yet the polls are what they are.

Here’s another explanation:

They are going to cheat on a brazen and unprecedented scale and use the manufactured polling as cover.

If we saw arrests before the election, I think there would be yellow stripes glowing on the backs of those that have been perpetrating this lie for so many years. It would scare people into trying to make deals, etc.

I don’t hold out much hope of that, though the other bit of cognitive dissonance is watching Roger Stone get hauled away in the dark of night with CNN on the scene while people like Hillary breathe free air.

For me, and my appreciation of the President, it’s the dot on the ‘i’. I do not discount how difficult it has been for him to accomplish all that he has. I’m not ungrateful.

However, without restoration of the Rule of Law, all of his other achievements are sand castles waiting for the next tide of traitorous scum (R and D) to wash it away.

And we do not have Rule of Law. By far, watching these riots night after night has been the most demoralizing to me. It’s currently Rule by Force, and if you are the wrong gender and color, and EVEN if you are wearing a body camera, you may stand a better chance allowing yourself to be killed by these criminals.

Because it is worse to properly defend your life only to have it snatched away by a court system bought and paid for be a rich lobbyist. (yes, understatement)

So, there you go. I’ve finally given voice to that festering, gnawing darkness that has been building in me as election day nears.

Without Rule of Law, after all, is there actually going to be an election?

It’s the unspoken answer to that question, which in me at least, causes me to look toward November and want to arm myself.

That impulse is why there MUST be arrests. No citizen in a functioning republic should have such impulses.

[rlmorel]

I will say, when I heard Michael Moore say he was praying for COVID-19 (and then pathetically plagarized by the likes of Chris Rock) I had a thought:

I wish Trump would get in front of a crowd:

TRUMP: "You know, I have heard people on the Left say they were praying for COVID-19...when I heard that, I said "They damn well should pray for COVID-19, because my immune system kicks ass and is going to wipe it out, so...it NEEDS their prayers to have a chance!"

[PGalt]

GRRREAT post from you and wording from Larry, Laz. HOORAY to you both.

We don’t need Ray Charles to SEE what’s going on. Just LOOK/SEE/LISTEN to FOXY Chrissy.