COVID-19 cases overstated by one hundred percent because of indiscriminate testing

American Thinker ^ | 07/21/2020 | By Erwin Haas, M.D.

[SeekAndFind]

Brief Note: It is a well known principle in statistics that all tests will have some biologic false positives that unfortunately label individuals as being diseased but who are not afflicted. The corona viral dna tests have a reported 4% false positive rate that, when applied to the nearly 50 million tests done so far result in 2 million falsely labelled as having COVID-19.

 

For some weeks I have been watching the COVID-19 scene with some distress. Brian Joondeph,  a physician and one of the smartest people that I read vaguely hinted at the solution yesterday but didn't really nail it. So, I'm going to make my addition to this article here:

Link

All tests in medicine have a certain number of false positives, meaning that the test is positive but that the patient does not have the disease.  I found only one published false positive rate for the COVID-19 PCR test. Four percent of tests are thought to be positive but the patients do not have the virus. I find this number to be low but it will do.

 

COVID-19 News reports that 48.3 million tests have been done in the United States as of Monday. Four percent, or over 1.93 million are false positives. These patients are not infected. The same publication  alleges that about 3.9 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19. They did not subtract the nearly 2 million false positives. Fewer than 2 million Americans have truly positive tests for COVID-19 (but it’s not always certain which ones.) 

 

Link, VirusNCov.com

[SeekAndFind]

NOTE FOLKS:

The scam starts when an one individual is tested and is found to be falsely positive. All of his contacts will then be traced and tested. If there are 25 contacts, one of them is likely to be falsely positive as will, in turn, one of his 25 contacts.The entire chain is actually negative but this kind of creative and unwarranted testing does swell the numbers.

This is playing out as a manufactured epidemic in rural United States where a new population of COVID-19 cases has arisen in the last 2 months; Many of the new cases are in younger healthy individuals tested as part of contact tracing. To invent a meme; It’s not the same COVID-19 that we knew in the old days.

[SeekAndFind]

ON THE ISSUE OF DEATH RATES...

This is dropping. Michigan, as an example, reports one or two new deaths per day but on many days also reports a half dozen deaths retrieved in chart reviews of cases from February or March. This gives the false impression of a high mortality. The virus has burned itself out.

[RayChuang88]

I wouldn't be surprised that we may have Federal audit of COVID-19 case reporting at the hospital level.

[ClearCase_guy]

They need to keep shoveling the BS for over 3 more months. Not going to be easy. I expect COVID19 to virtually disappear on the first Wednesday in November, but I think it will be challenging to keep it going that long.

[House Atreides]

QUESTION: Should the 4% false positive rate be applied to the TOTAL NUMBER OF TESTS or does the 4% false positive figure actually represent the percentage of positive tests that are false positives?

The answer is critical to arrive at a proper and rational conclusion!

[FamiliarFace]

This is interesting to me. Just a couple of weeks ago, a family friend who works at a restaurant was on the contact trace list for someone he worked with. The coworker was supposedly positive but had no symptoms, and needed the money, so continued working. Eventually someone found out so they had everyone tested. That’s how our family friend was found to be positive.

On the day his test came back positive, he said he guessed he felt a little “blah” but nothing else really. Needless to say, my son had spent 3-4 hours with him a day or two before he tested positive, so my son got a test. He was negative. The family friend quarantined for 2 weeks or so until he was cleared which was Sunday. Now I’m wondering if his positive test was a false positive, and maybe even the coworker was a false positive. Neither had symptoms.

[HighSierra5]

The hysteria has morphed into full blown societal insanity. Dontcha know.I’m the only sane one left.

[upchuck]

IMHO, contact tracing in something as pervasive as the Wuhan virus is meaningless and leads to inflated numbers.

We don’t contact trace the yearly flu. Why not?

[FamiliarFace]

Oh, meant to say, nobody else at the restaurant tested positive. I don’t know how many people they employ, but I would guess around 40-50.

[Vermont Lt]

Its probably not overstated, but “accurate.” And that is not bad.

This virus is pretty contagious. And yet, almost half of those infected show no symptoms.

Testing everyone and anyone will result in very high numbers. That’s fine. It will truly reflect the case rate and the death rates—which will be incredibly low.

Anyway, its all about getting “sick.” Its about getting hospitalized.

If beds are full, that is something to be concerned about. If the ICUs are unavailable, that is a concern. (Yes, I know that the hospital beds are being used by other folks—not sure how that is relevant, but I understand it.)

Counting deaths and cases is generally a waste of time without the proper context.

[SMARTY]

Right now, I can’t/won’t hear or watch anything ‘reported’ in the media.

Almost to a man, ‘Journalists’ and media officials have all been compromised or conducted themselves to the point that they compromised THEMSELVES! I mean-if I recognize ONE SINGLE media name, I have also heard of a crime or some misconduct directly or indirectly, connected with it. No intelligent person should still be referring to THEM for information.

Think of all the ‘personalities’ who work in the communications industry and the many cases where they have been charged and even successfully prosecuted for professional malfeasance (and worse), leaks, personal misconduct, professional misconduct, civil crimes, proved, continuous and OPEN financial support of politicians who themselves are compromised!

Tune in to THEIR broadcast? Value THEIR reporting? THAT’S like returning to the mechanic who routinely screws-up your car repair, then charges you up the ying-yang for the favor. Would you still take your car to HIM?

[Sir Bangaz Cracka]

If Trump loses, he can become the close everything down Nazi dictator, and talk about how essential it is to saving lives. He could really throttle down the economy, by ensuring more businesses are shuttered and more people are put out of work. Place a good ole’ recession right in “Where’s Joe?” lap. Watch dims struggle for 4 years trying to dig out. Stock markets tanked. Trump could have press conferences, and give lavish praise to Dr. Fauci and talk about how the country needs to follow Dr. Fauci’s advice on keeping the country locked down until 2022, or until a vaccine is developed.

From November 4th, till inauguration day, Trump could hold the military back in order to guarantee maximum Antifa/BLM trashing/burning/rioting/looting of big cities. He could just remind folks how the mayors got mad when he “intervened” in the “peaceful” demonstrations.

In other words, give ‘em what Democrats have been clamoring for. Trump could sit back and smile.

[exDemMom]

I would hope that anyone whose test indicates the presence of SARS-CoV2 RNA is being diagnosed on the basis of a number of indicators, not just a single virus RNA test. Are their symptoms consistent with COVID-19? Does a different kind of test also show the presence of virus? For example, is a SARS-CoV2 RNA dipstick test confirmed by rtPCR analysis and maybe viral culture?

If it were true that many cases of Covid-19 are being reported as positive without any confirmatory testing, then the implication for the death rate is actually pretty bad. That would mean the death rate is even higher than the daily case numbers show. Today, there are 3,831,450 cases reported in the US with 140,909 deaths. This gives a death rate of 140,909 divided by 3,831,450 times 100 (to make it a percent) equals 3.678%. This is high, not as high as it once was, but still very high. However, claiming that false positives are lumped in with true positives actually makes the death rate much higher when the supposed false cases are subtracted out. For example:

Using the false positive numbers claimed in this article, there would be 3,831,450 minus 1,930,000 (false positives claimed in article) equals 1,901,450 cases, for a death rate of 140,909 / 1,901,450 x 100 = 7.41%. I don't think so. I like to think that the physicians doing the diagnoses are competent enough to realize that a positive result on a single test must be confirmed. I really dislike these articles that claim that some aspect or another of the virus case reporting is way off (for reasons, of course) in an attempt to downplay the seriousness of Covid-19. When you dig into the details and do a bit of analysis, those attempts to downplay the seriousness, if true, actually would mean the virus is worse than it really is.

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Imagine a virus so deadly you had to be tested to know you had it

[Guenevere]

Bump

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Imagine a virus so deadly you had to be tested to know you had it

Well, that’s every single virus that ever existed...

[P-Marlowe]

I know of 8 people in my small circle of influence who were told they tested positive for Covid 19 but never took the test. They went to the testing center and filled out the forms but left when they were told the wait was going to be several hours. They are counting people who don’t stick around for the test as positive.

We are witnessing universal mass insanity.

[WildHighlander57]

Problem is, the common cold coronavirus will trip a covid test positive.

So, need to factor out the common colds.

[Mase]

For later....