Posted on 07/01/2020 11:53:22 AM PDT by Signalman
With five months until the election, things couldn’t look any worse for the president of the United States. His approval rating is down to 40%. People are getting tired of his antics and the insults he hurls at his opponents. The media is increasingly confident that, come November, the voters will elect a new chief executive.
This might sound like June 2020, but I’m actually referring to June 1948 — when President Harry Truman, a Democrat, was running to keep his job against Republican Thomas Dewey.
The similarities between the 1948 and 2020 elections are striking. Like President Trump, Truman often ruffled feathers with his salty language. At one point, Truman even described Dewey as a fascist, a term not taken lightly just three years after World War II.
Just as with Trump, the media described Truman as desperate and unhinged. They mocked him for the more than 8,000 empty chairs at a speech he gave in Nebraska — presaging the coverage of Trump’s recent speech in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Almost everyone thought Truman would lose, including the president’s mother-in-law. A Newsweek poll reported 50 out of 50 politicos predicting a Dewey victory.
But on Nov. 3, 1948, the world woke up to the stunning news that Truman had won. The experts were left struggling to make sense of how they got it so wrong.
Today, we’re seeing poll after poll showing Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden. In the echo chamber of cable news and social media, there’s a growing consensus that Trump is headed for humiliating defeat.
Are the pundits right, or are we moving toward another stunning win by a beleaguered incumbent? Could history be repeating itself?
The 1948 election warns us that an upset is very possible. There are two dynamics at work in 2020 that were decisive that fateful year.
The first is political staying power. Prior to 1948, the Democrats had won four straight presidential elections. Many observers assumed that they were due for a loss, especially with the GOP’s large gains in the 1946 midterm elections. The media, however, underestimated the strength of the Democrats’ New Deal coalition. While commentators were thinking in terms of political cycles and party turnover, they failed to consider the New Deal’s long-term appeal for its constituents.
Today’s pundits might be making the same mistake with Trump’s 2016 coalition. Throughout the Mueller investigation, the impeachment process, the pandemic, and record unemployment, Trump’s approval rating in the RealClearPolitics average has remained surprisingly consistent (around the mid-to-low 40s), showing that at least 4 out of 10 people support the president regardless of whatever the opposition throws up. That may not be sufficient to guarantee victory, but it’s a precious asset in a general election — especially with Democratic enthusiasm for Biden comparatively low.
The second factor is that people often vote for incumbent presidents based on certain intangibles (leadership skills or likability) despite the candidate’s perceived flaws or policy disagreements. The Washington Post alluded to this phenomenon after Truman’s victory: “The American people admire a man with courage even though they don’t always agree with him.” The voters might even give the opposing party control of Congress during the midterm elections to check that president, but they will still reelect a flawed incumbent because of their supposed charisma (see Bill Clinton and Barack Obama) or boldness (see Truman).
Like Trump, Truman was seen as a fighter who was not afraid to go against the political establishment. And like Biden, Dewey was an uninspiring candidate who, because of overconfidence, played it safe and limited his public appearances.
It is possible that in a dangerous and unpredictable world, voters will prefer a feisty and aggressive Trump over a lackluster Biden.
Despite all of this, Biden could still win in November. But if history can teach us anything, it is that the experts can get it wrong. We don’t even have to go back to 1948. Exactly four years ago (in June 2016), Hillary Clinton led Trump in the polls by 5 percentage points. The night before the election, the intelligentsia was still confidently predicting a Clinton win. The next day, Trump stunned the world.
Yes, and hte liberals will be even angrier than last time.
If America votes for Biden, we deserve what we get.
An Obama/Soros puppet ushering in an era of communist totalitarianism - the completion of Obama’s “fundamental transformation” of the greatest nation in the history of the world.
The debates will have little influence — most voters will expect biden to mumble and stumble and feel that he is at a disadvantage because of his mental condition. Also, Orange Man bad and that is important.
1. It's a decent bet that Biden won't be the candidate in November.
2. Just because American doesn't vote for Biden, doesn't mean the Dems will not win. The cheating and chaos and underhanded shenanigans will be epic this autumn.
Oh boy, should I start celebrating?
I’m don’t believe elections matter all that much anymore.
Seriously, what good has having Trump in the White House done? They’ve neutered him at every turn, and that includes the Republicans.
The Left controls academia, the media/entertainment, Corporations, and even the Churches, how do you get rid of that?
The number one rule of Presidential politics is:
You can’t beat somebody with nobody.
Think about it.
Joe Biden is totally senile—there has never been a senile major candidate for President before this year.
The Trump campaign has a very clear mission—which should not be attempted until well into October (when it is too late for the Democrats to replace Biden)—and that is to make sure that every single American knows beyond any shadow of a doubt one simple fact:
Joe Biden is senile.
Game, set, match.
Never in my life have I seen this kind of despicable garbage thrown at a duly elected President.
Impeachment? Over a simple phone call? By the very people who clearly used the power and assets of the United States to try to frame him and imprison his associates, which is STILL ONGOING?
By contrast they treated Dick Nixon with kid gloves.
Any other country would be a smoking cinder now from the resultant civil war.
Neither side is going to accept the results of the election.
The Left will be more violent when they lose.
We're going to have to respond to that, and also we'll have to secure President Trump's second term in the face of their massive vote fraud.
Well of course. MAGA!
POTUS Trump may win. He will be left standing with ashes for a country. He is the only one who fights.
I have already rejected a Democrat "victory" in November.
It's our duty to make sure that the inauguration of two-term President Trump goes off without a hitch in January 2021.
I was on Twitter earlier today, and I had a thought:
All these "protests" and pulling-down of statues are practice for open intimidation of the voting public in the run-up to the November election.
The Lefty mob thinks that they'll get away with it.
.
How are the leftists going to prevent Trump vs Biden DEBATES ???
Trump will eat that senile puppet alive.
When is the Democrats Convention ? They still might have a chance to dump Biden in the 11th hour.
.
One way Trump could assure himself of a win in November would be to quit tweeting and start taking some positive action to get back control of the country. Yeah, you may piss off some people who were never going to vote for you anyway, but you would surely gain a solid backing of voters going into November. People are tired of strongly-worded tweets and want some actual action. I guarantee that would assure his victory in November.
Thomas Dewey thought he had the election in the bag, just like Hillary in 2016. Apparently he was not a very likeable guy (his running mate, Earl Warren, apparently couldn’t stand him) but he was clearly competent, a far cry from Biden in 2020 (or Biden at any earlier stage in his career).
Wrong, wrong, wrong!
The American People stunned the world.
POTUS Trump didn't elect himself.
Dementia joe will “win” only if there is massive fraud.
Who is POTUS?
Get the point?
Weakling Karens (of both sexes) feel that way. Pathetic self-loathing nitwits.
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