Posted on 07/01/2020 10:16:29 AM PDT by Red Badger
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is either slightly ahead or way ahead of Republican Donald Trump with just 13 days until Election Day, according to new polls released Wednesday.
An AP-GFK poll shows Clinton leading by an astonishing 14 points, 51 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, in a four-way race. In a two-way heat, Clinton’s lead narrows to 13 points.
A new Fox News poll finds Clinton ahead by a much smaller margin ― just 3 points ahead in a four-way race, 44 percent to 41 percent. She also leads by 3 points head to head with Trump.
Other recent polls show Clinton with a lead ranging from 2 points to 12 points.
It’s best not to freak out just yet over which of Wednesday’s polls are right. Instead, consider the aggregate of recent polls for a more sober look at the race.
According to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, Clinton is leading by about 7 points in the four-way race, 46.6 percent to 39 percent.
In the head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
Both new polls are consistent with that aggregated result when you consider their margin of error. The Fox News poll has a 2.5-point margin of error. When applied to each candidate’s share of the vote, that means there could be as much as a 5-point fluctuation in the Fox poll margin. The AP-GFK poll has a slightly higher margin of error, also placing its results within the range of what the aggregate shows.
Another reason for variation in the new polls could be the dates the surveys were administered. The AP-GFK poll was conducted Oct 20 to Oct. 24, just after the Oct 19 presidential debate, where Clinton was praised for a strong performance.
The Fox News poll was conducted a few days later, from Oct 22 to Oct. 25. Perceptions of the debate may have been more muted in people’s minds by then.
In addition, the AP-GFK poll was conducted online. Fox used live phone interviews. Each of the pollsters uses different techniques to screen for likely voters.
Regardless, the aggregate of polls confirms that Clinton is winning. Clinton leads in a two-way race in all 36 polls conducted in October. In the four-way race, she’s ahead in 48 of 52 October polls.
The HuffPost Pollster presidential election forecast gives Clinton a 97.5 chance of winning..............
Look at St. Louis “conservative’s” posting history. It’s a classic troll. It disappears for months. Comes back from time to time to drop biased poll droppings over the forum and then leaves again.
It’s not a conservative and it HATES President Trump. It’s a pathetic, worthless, cowardly troll who is worried about “tone” and “twitter.” I found its old blog and it’s clear that it’s a Myth Romney type.
Worse than a liberal.
It needs a zot.
It the risk of stating the obvious the 2016 polls were right, especially the ones showing a 3 or 4 point difference. Clinton did win the popular vote by over 2 points. But as they apparently forgot, popular vote doesn’t determine who becomes president.
And the state-by-state polls showed no path to 270.
Wrong. If you say I’m pessimistic on the current race, guilty as charged. But I’m hardly alone in that sentiment even on this board.
Furthermore I hope I’m wrong. I would LOVE to be wrong.
I keep getting masked “cdc” calls I refuse to answer.
You are are a troll, and you aren’t a very good one.
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What happen when you use Statistical Methods meant for Nuts & Bolts and try to use them on people.
A few thousand people polled is supposed to tell what 300 million people think ....
That’s even if a Poll is ‘on the square’ and not manipulated as so many are.
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