Posted on 05/25/2020 8:41:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new model shows reopening states and ignoring the pandemic could result in more than 5 million people contracting coronavirus.
According to Yahoo Finance, a Penn Wharton Budget Model shows reopening states could cause positive coronavirus cases in the U.S. to jump to 5.4 million by the end of July. The model, which assumes states reopening May 18, explores various scenarios under which states reopen.
The model also includes lockdowns, a partial reopening, and takes into account whether social distancing rules would continue to be adhered to or are relaxed.
If states fully reopen with no social distancing rules in place, the model shows as many as 5.4 million people could contract coronavirus. If states reopen while still practicing measures of social distancing, the number drops to nearly 4.3 million. Partially reopening the states with social distancing rules in place would result in nearly 3.2 million positive cases, according to the model.
The current death toll in the United States is more than 91,000, according to Johns Hopkins. With states under a full lockdown, the model still projects the death toll at just over 156,000, an increase from its previous forecasts of 117,000.
A Penn Wharton Budget Model from May 1, showed more than 200,000 deaths related to coronavirus pandemic.
Although the model predicts a significant rise in cases and deaths, it does show that the economy will rebound faster if states are reopened. According to the model, if states stay in lockdown with social distancing orders in place, the U.S. GDP will shrink by 10.8% year over year by July 24.
However, reopening states will save the country from severe economic losses. If states reopen, the GDP would decline by 7.7% compared to 2019. If social distancing is reduced, GDP would decline by 6.6%.
Reopening states in spite of the coronavirus would also benefit job growth. More than 30 million Americans are currently unemployed. But if states reopened, 1 million jobs would be created by the end of July. If states aren’t reopened, millions more will join the unemployed ranks.
So you “contract” the Chinese Chest Cold. Then you get better. Because it’s a chest cold. It’s not like you’re “contracting” AIDS or Hep-C. Elderly and vulnerable people need to protect themselves from this, just like the flu. But for the near totality of anyone else, it’s a nothing-burger. We’ve been had.
Well, if the actual mortality rate from coronavirus turns out to be as low as it is looking like it might be... (far less than seasonal flu) And if suicide rates (attempts and deaths) are really several higher now (and probably getting worse)... Then reopening everything and accepting a few additional deaths could result in a net savings of lives. There, see. We can use “could” too...
Let’s see. The test kits don’t work. False positives, false negatives. So absolutely no way to quantify the Corona cold virus.
So how can any model even pretend at accuracy?
RE: Is that the same model that predicted 2 million dead by now and bodies in the streets?
Nope, the article says it’s a NEW model.
By my math: 97,794 deaths divided by 1,646,495 cases is a 0.0593 death rate if the numbers are correct. That leads to 296,976 deaths, or about triple the current number of deaths. Seems high to me, but that’s predicated on 5 million infections.
There are models showing it will be gone as well
I have a model that predicts 100% of cable news will reflect on this and ring its hands and Kozak will show up and and celebrate every grim thing and then be said when they don’t materialize.
This is getting ridiculous
Oh good. more inaccurate fearmongering models.
Throw enough ‘model crap numbers’ at the wall, eventually something will stick.
Kind of like predicting the stock market. If someone gets lucky and predicts a sell off, they are considered a guru and make lots of money consulting people about the next “big” move.
I’ve seen two different things - one out of Germany and another out of NY (IIRC)... That suggest something like 80% or even as high as 96% of people who “get” CV don’t show any symptoms. If these numbers hold up - then it is likely tens of millions of people have already had CV and the mortality rate is actually a fraction of the mortality rate of the seasonal flu.
Yeah, riiiight.
Sorry, anyone taking this cr*p at face value should go into journalism because actual technical work is far, far, FAR beyond their meager liberal abilities.
Two tons of fun.
KISS OFF
And the numerator is likely wrong because we have not been regularly testing asymptomatic people. Even the CDC admits the death rate is around 0.26%
See, you are posting too many bogus virus articles. Stop it. It burns. /s
Over 5 Million People WILL Contract Coronavirus by July whether we reopen or not. Makes no difference. So why punish the vast majority with continued lockdown?
I just think nobody cares anymore.
Those who try to sensationalize will find themselves singing to nobody.
We’ve entered the phase where numbers don’t matter anymore.
Which also showed no second wave which I doubt will come.
Look you have done Yeomans work documenting this and I, for one, appreciate it
That being said, every worthless Ph.D in the world is creating models hoping to be the right one because if you hit the correct curve it means money and grants forever
The natural history of pandemics suggest this one is almost over. Death rates are plummeting. We are getting very mixed numbers due to the over testing and nature of testing.
Worldodometer shows Florida with 800+ cases today. But if you delve into the report, Florida DOH reports all positive tests then extracts from thst set the number of new positives which is much lower. Because this is PCR testing dead viral particles will create a positive test even on recovered patients. That’s the dilemma with the testing thst is ongoing.
Anyway. This as a political football is now more dangerous than the rapidly extinguishing virus in the United States
Thanks for your diligence, sincerely.
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