Okie-doke. Oh, Auntie Em, I DO believe!
Posted on 05/23/2020 11:23:57 PM PDT by Olog-hai
Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in the UK on September 30, according to modeling from scientists.
A team at the Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the pandemic to pinpoint the date cases will die out in countries hardest hit by the disease.
They predict a total eradication of the bug in Britain with no new cases — or a second wave — at all from the end of September.
The US, where most COVID-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11.
The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12.
By plotting the acceleration and deceleration rates of each country’s outbreak, the scientists have conjured up a prediction of when the virus will wane. …
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Modeling for predictions is a really shaky proposition! Even worse than polls or even studies. Man models and God laughs!!!
Okie-doke. Oh, Auntie Em, I DO believe!
________________
I guess we will see.
By the way, what's all that I've been hearing about what's going on now in China???
I'm a professional, and I would never make such a prediction from a model. Anyone willing to put out such nonsense is playing politics, not applying math. We do not have enough data to say that there will be a second wave, and we do not have enough data to say there won't. We cannot make an informed prediction in any direction. All an honest statistician can do is learn from our mistakes in this first round - and especially learn not to try another nationwide or even statewide shutdown.
Sounding more and more like the "climate scientists" every day.
I haven't heard anything going on in China.
Why did you ask if something was going in Hong Kong?
I mean China! China.
It's not like this whole COVID thing has been one huge faint by Xi and the CCP to cover for their execution and deletion of the "One country, two systems" agreement with Hong Kong or anything like that.
The US already has an R₀ below 1 all but 5 states according to this analysis: Click Here. This means that the pandemic will end in the US. We just don't know exactly when. Models cannot accurately determine that, but some may make good guesses.
The words “Scientific model predicts...” are now followed in my head by the sound of a phonograph needle being forcibly dragged across a record, then by the lilting swoosh of the old Flushometer.
We have to adjust to the reality that just because words come out of the mouth of a “Scientist”, it don’t mean they were wrote by the Very Finger of God His/HuhSeff.
“Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave”
“I’m a professional, and I would never make such a prediction from a model.”
You must have missed the part about these being SCIENTIFIC models, not just normal models.
Just like election predictors and climate change predictors at some point they have to honestly analyze and report the data to maintain a degree of credibility.
The “models” and “experts” during my lifetime have mostly been wrong about just about everything always consistently.
Reminds me of 1 Corinthians 1:27.
Yes. Good catch.
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