+27312 New Cases
86,912 TOTAL DEAD
Posted on 05/15/2020 4:59:34 AM PDT by impimp
It’s just the flu, bro.
After seeing Fauci get questioned by Rand Paul it is clear that Fauci is well-spoken and intelligent. He also is very educated and experienced. For him to advise on public health policy as poorly as he has means that he is 1. evil, and/or 2. A Democrat stooge. I am glad Trump is downplaying his role and I look forward to his “retirement” in November.
It’s useful to look at how CV has played out in Italy, South Korea, Spain, and other countries that seem to be further along with disease’s progression. This CV is on the way out and any talk of second waves is overstated.
Basically the R0 for this must be overstated, probably by the same scientists who said 2.2 Million will die in the US, and this leads to a lower threshold needed for herd immunity. R0 is the average of how many people catch the virus from a single infected person, assuming everyone is susceptible. The effective R goes down as the disease spreads. Herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0. Initially scientists said 60% of the population need immunity for this disease to go away, but we are seeing a rapid decline of CV in NYC and other places with only 20% possessing antibodies.
Looking forward to Governor Abbott opening more of Texas on Monday. When a larger state like Texas opens up and everything is OK it puts tremendous pressure on those left wing governors.
After seeing Fauci get questioned by Rand Paul it is clear that Fauci is well-spoken and intelligent. He also is very educated and experienced. For him to advise on public health policy as poorly as he has means that he is 1. evil, and/or 2. A Democrat stooge. I am glad Trump is downplaying his role and I look forward to his “retirement” in November.
It’s useful to look at how CV has played out in Italy, South Korea, Spain, and other countries that seem to be further along with disease’s progression. This CV is on the way out and any talk of second waves is overstated.
Basically the R0 for this must be overstated, probably by the same scientists who said 2.2 Million will die in the US, and this leads to a lower threshold needed for herd immunity. R0 is the average of how many people catch the virus from a single infected person, assuming everyone is susceptible. The effective R goes down as the disease spreads. Herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0. Initially scientists said 60% of the population need immunity for this disease to go away, but we are seeing a rapid decline of CV in NYC and other places with only 20% possessing antibodies.
Looking forward to Governor Abbott opening more of Texas on Monday. When a larger state like Texas opens up and everything is OK it puts tremendous pressure on those left wing governors.
Ping. Freepmail Impimp to go on the ping list.
How soon will the fear per be here
Old Low IQ kojack...or LoJack. Never disappoints. Your data analysis is quite good imp. Let’s see what happens in Wisconsin. Assuming the hospitals are not totally overrun in 2 weeks. We can declare the lockdown a hoax
Very.
As we begin to emerge from our holes the scumedia and the rats are planning a 2nd wave of fear and hysteria to take us into the November election, closing the polls due to the the planned hysteria and force mail in voting so they can steal the election
Global COVID-19 Death Toll: 300,000
Global Population: 7.7 BILLION
You’re a numbers guy so I’ll let you figure the percentage.
A repost, with updates
First, the Axioms:
1.) An estimate divided by an estimate yields garbage (1)
2.) An estimate divided by a reliable number yields an estimate
3.) A reliable number divided by a reliable number yields a reliable number
Next, the Postulates:
1.) The estimates from the CDC are just that, estimates
2.) The population numbers from the Census Bureau are reliable
Then, the Definitions:
1.) The Case Morbidity Ratio (CMR) is the ESTIMATE of the number of deaths divided by the ESTIMATE of the number of cases, expressed as a percentage
2.) The Overall Morbidity Ratio (OMR) is the estimate of the number of deaths divided by the population, expressed as a percentage
Description Deaths (est) Population OMR
Spanish Flu (1918) 675 000 103 208 000 0.65%
Asian Flu (1957) 116 000 171 984 000 0.067%
Hong Kong Flu (1968) 100 000 205 806 000 0.049%
Current Flu so far 62 000 333 456 000 0.018%
COVID19 (2020 so far) 83 947 333 456 000 0.025%
Note 1: The mortality numbers we see being bandied about (5%, 10%, 15%) are Case Morbidity Ratios, and these numbers do not even rise to the level of a guess.
Note 2: All death estimates are from the CDC website. All population numbers are from the US Census Bureau website.
(I apologize in advance for the formatting - it didn’t work out quite how I expected.)
Haven’t commented on this thread in awhile. Keep up the good work!
Also, what a complete idiot Kozak is. Must lead an absolutely miserable life hiding in fear. Relax, Kozak. You only get one life...try actually living it.
All Rats and not a few here gleefully play along, joyous and hoping for more deaths
ALL FOR THE ELECTION.
After watching the fascists here after Waco II, he must be getting paid by someone.
Kozak is a one-post wonder now.
One post and then never returns.
Scrollin
PA has a death rate of 335/million and Sweden, which has been open from the beginning, bars, schools, economy, all open, has a death rate of 349/million.
That is a .000014 differential per the entire population, 14 people over spread over a million people.
How many more people died because of elective surgeries that were not performed?
Opiod overdose deaths are up 70%, which more than covers the 14 per million.
Calls to the suicide lines are up over 500% and probably more but the lines are jammed.
Depression, child and spousal abuse are way up, and that is just the tip of the ice berg.
This whole farce was intended to 'flatten the curve' so that we didn't overwhelm the medical system, not to reduce the number of deaths.
The slow down of deaths was pitched as the reason so that we could treat the patients, but we have empty beds, so empty that medical employees are being laid off.
This whole thing is worse than a farce, it is a test to see how much communism the American people will accept before we break out the weapons.
Trump really needed to kick Wolf in the chops and put some pressure on him when he was here yesterday. Highly disappointed that he did not.
I have several good friends in PA. Between Wolfe snd levine, you are a tinder box. If this thing does go the route a shooting civil war I think it will start in PA
There is supposed to be another protest in Harrisburg today.
Organizers claim they are expecting 15,000. If that is anywhere near true that CW may start today.
If CW starts during this COVID period, it will be “fought” in localities, not regional or national.
Harrisburg might ignite Lansing but they will not be connected to a great CW.
It will be skirmishes, not battles.
The State WILL lose.
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