Posted on 05/10/2020 5:32:14 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
5/6 - 2,528
5/7 - 2,129 -399
5/8 - 1,687 -442
5/9 - 1,422 -265
5/10 - 750 -672
A huge decline in deaths the past five days. We will find out tomorrow and Tuesday if this is the beginning of a trend.
Trump will be proven right yet again. The virus is weakening.
If we look at SARS, we will see COVID-19 weaken by August.
WOW must be time to start re-infecting the nursing homes!! Governor Abbott and Governor DeSantis keep a VERY CLOSE eye on your elderly!!
And even these are likely inflated given recent CDC shenanigans
Hides behind a rock.
Sunday data is often low; and it’s Mother’s Day.
A Monday + Tuesday spike will ‘catch-up’ the missing data.
“If we look at SARS, we will see COVID-19 weaken by August.”
CDC timeline records SARS-CoV-1 as contained by July 5, 2003.
Covid-19 is actually the pandemic’s name, the virus itself is SARS-CoV-2. About 90% the same as the first SARS.
The 2002-2003 SARS was much less contagious with only 8,800 cases, but way more lethal with nearly 9% of cases ending in death.
https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm
New York State had only 41 in that 750 figure. There’s probably 300 missing just there.
Are the figures inflated in any case? Sure.
But if reported semi-consistently within each state, then the trend is what matters; and numbers don’t move suddenly like that in large populations. That’s a 2 or 3 sigma change off trend. Extremely unlikely that 41 figure for NYS is real.
Sundays and Mondays are usually the lowest. So the best thing to do is compare this Sunday's number with the previous Sunday numbers.
4/12 - 1727
4/19 - 1570
4/26 - 1156
5/3 - 1153
5/10 - 750
Hopefully, previous patterns won't repeat with a big gain tomorrow and Tuesday, and this will finally be the beginning of a consistent, long-term drop.
Comparing similar days of the week or using a seven day running average there has been a consistent real 4 week drop.
SARS disappeared in four months. Assuming that COVID-19 started in late November/early December, it has been at least five months.
ha ha ha - relax - what will be will be - on-one I know is a prophet.
Each of the seven days of the week have their own reporting patterns. Sundays and Mondays are low, and Tuesdays and Wednesdays are high, for examples.
If you use a seven day running average, you can ignore the inconsistencies of the specific days of the week and you can see a real trend down over the last four weeks.
Re weekend dips:
Take a look at the John’s Hopkins CSSE COVID statistics site. In the US daily new case data there is an obvious 7 day cycle. I don’t know if it’s a quirk of the data tabulation, or social in that people do or don’t go to the hospital more on weekdays or weekends.
A few other Western countries exhibit the same weekly cyclicality.
Come on Cuomo, DeBlasio and Shumer. Do whatever you can to get those death counts climbing again. Your communist agenda depends on your actions!
Yes. There seems to be consistent delayed reporting over the weekends. Which actually does not offend me. People will be just as dead tomorrow as they are today. There is no reason for non-emergency care staff to be working around the clock.
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