I ask that because outside my window, the squirrels are carrying on as thought everything was perfectly normal. Climbing trees. Gathering nuts. Running in front of cars and sometimes getting squished.
To the squirrels, it's business as usual.
Posted on 04/28/2020 2:21:05 PM PDT by Capt. Tom
What’s next for Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL)? RCL stock has rebounded off last month’s lows as investors bet on a recovery post-novel coronavirus. Things may not be so dire for other hard-hit industries. But, for the cruise line industry, it’s a long road to recovery.
Sure, you can make the argument that cruise ships aren’t toast. Once the pandemic subsides, cruise ships could make a comeback, as millions getting “cabin fever” right now decide to take long-overdue vacations. But this is assuming operations will resume within a few months. That’s the current projection, but with multiple stakeholders mulling when it’s safe to “return to normal,” there are no guarantees.
With no revenue coming in, high fixed costs, and heavy debt on their balance sheet, Royal Caribbean looks like a bankruptcy waiting to happen. However, analysts at Stifel believe things may not be so bad. They’ve given shares a “buy” rating, and a price target of $48 per share.
Despite its woes, RCL stock appears priced for a turnaround. With shares up more than 90% from their late-March lows, stock market investors may assume the company’s risks have diminished. Yet, from the eyes of bond investors, the opposite is happening.
This Seeking Alpha contributor recently broke down the situation. Action in the bond markets points to bad news for the cruise line. Royal Caribbean’s bond prices have cratered. The cost for investors to ensure their bonds against default has skyrocketed. Based on his calculations, the underlying equity may be worthless.
Cruises Will Keep on Sailing—Just Don’t Expect RCL Stock to Recover Cruise ships aren’t going anywhere. Despite the recent troubles, many people are still looking to get back on the high seas once the pandemic subsides. Based on reports from Carnival, bookings for 2021 are up from 2019 levels.
(Excerpt) Read more at investorplace.com ...
I did my last two cruises on the RCL Serenade of the Seas a mere 2,040 passenger cruise ship and really enjoyed it.
We can expect changes in the immediate future ,because of this economic disaster we are now experiencing.
Most of the cruises are wiped out for all cruise lines for the next month or so.
With all the planes not flying and the cruise ships not cruising I expect gasoline fuel prices to stay at giveawy prices plus taxes. -Tom
I ask that because outside my window, the squirrels are carrying on as thought everything was perfectly normal. Climbing trees. Gathering nuts. Running in front of cars and sometimes getting squished.
To the squirrels, it's business as usual.
It won't be business as usual for the cruise lines.
One thing that will help them, is lower fuel costs.- Tom
Capt. Tom wrote: “I am sure us cruisers on FR have spent time on RCL ships. RCL has a large 24 ship fleet with some of the largest cruise ships afloat. Four carrying over 5,400 passengers and 3 carrying over 4,000 passengers”
We’ve done a couple of RCCI cruises. Freedom and Oasis. Not our favorite cruise line but it would be if we had children to entertain.
We’ve been on a couple of Princess cruises which we liked better.
Our favorite is Holland. We’ve got a Holland booked to Panama in December and a Princess Toronto to Fort Lauderdale in 2021.
Are you aware of cruisecritic.com? Fairly good place for all sorts of cruising information. Very similar to freerepublic in that you can post threads and debate subjects. The big subjects now are complaints about delays in refunds and what cruising will be like in the future.
I can’t wait for cruise business to open up again so I can achieve my goal of 50 cruises before kicking the bucket.
Would you care to explain why you like Holland America better? It is the line we have not tried yet, been on all other cruise lines. H-A ships seem smaller than likes of Oasis of the Seas which I liked a lot because of the amenities and quality of shows only a 6000 passenger ship can afford. And it never felt crowded in spite of the 6000 passengers.
The first cruises for Carnival start on June 27...
Some of the May, June, cruises to Alaska-Bermuda-New England/Canada , got canceled because Canada and Bermuda closed their borders and the foreign flagged cruise ships couldn't leave an American port and return to an American port without visiting a foreign port.(Canada-Bermuda for example, closed their ports.)
Also our CDC didn't want them to cruise from our ports, at this time.-Tom
Absent a vaccine, cruise ships will have to overhaul their ventilation systems to stop the sharing of air between cabins...and I don’t see that happening.
So they’ll try to restart - then have breakouts, then shutdown for months (yet again), and then try to restart again, more breakouts, etc.
“It won’t be business as usual for the cruise lines.”
Why wouldn’t it be? This corona virus won’t likely be around once public immunity is achieved globally. SARS-1 lasted one season. Spanish flu lasted 2 seasons due to a favorable mutation. Unfortunately, all the closings and quarantining of healthy people delays the time until immunity is reached.
I say FL cruise ports will be open within 6 months and the corona virus will be gone in two years. And that’s spotting it a favorable mutation and re-infection.
I wouldn't depend upon a vaccine as there are no vaccines yet available for many virus diseases.
The cruise ships might have to have an ultra violet light or similar lights installed in the air ducts to kill all viruses, especially the airborne norovirus.
Times are a changing. -Tom
I’ll stick with my January prediction of no recovery, at least to anything near normal.
...but we shall see!
Carnival’s Alaska cruises are cancelled for the rest of the year...
Bermuda starts in August...
Business is better than ever...
Theyre booked out for months to come once they start up again...
People who were cancelled rebooked later in the year or next year...
Same here. We’ll be back on board I have no doubt.
In that case, you probably wouldn’t care for Holland. It’s a smaller, more classical, cruise. The typical passenger is older, significantly older, than RCCI. You won’t find a lot of late night activities. Nor will you find a lot of children. It’s mostly for adults in their fifties or older. BTW, it’s typically cheaper than RCCI.
Now, one thing you may like is Holland tends to do longer cruises and visits many locals that RCCI doesn’t. After awhile the Caribbean gets a bit old. Holland and Princess are the premier cruise lines for alaska where Princess owns most of the facilities.
I would suggest visiting cruisecritic and spend some time looking through the forums on the various cruise lines.
Install UV lights in every cabin and in the HVAC ducts. Install them all over the ship.
No corona virus has had a vaccine invented for it. Not SARS for example, though lots of money was spent.
From IBT 4/27/20
Survivors of last year's New Zealand volcano eruption are planning to sue cruise ship company Royal Caribbean for failing to warn of the risks involved in touring the area, lawyers said Monday. There were 47 people, mainly Australian tourists, on White Island when it erupted on December 9 last year, killing 21 people.
Lawyer Rita Yousef, from Sydney-based Stacks Goudkamp, said the firm was preparing to launch legal action against Royal Caribbean on behalf of survivors and families of the victims, many of whom were passengers on the cruise liner Ovation of the Seas.
My daughter likes to take cruises with MSC, and has a trip planned on the Meraviglia around July 18, out of Copenhagen.
I have been sending her e- mails on the cruise lines moving their departure dates back on a monthly basis.
About 2 weeks ago she sent me an e-mail with one word. STOP!
I couldn't resist sending her the latest MSC info.-Tom
Geneva, Switzerland (April 29, 2020) – MSC Cruises announced today a further extension of the halting of all its new cruise departures fleet-wide through July 10.
I’m fortunate. My two cruises are booked for Dec 2020 and Oct 2021. I’ve only got a total of $400 on deposit for all of them.
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