Vaccine or herd immunity only way for grandparents to safely hug their grandchildren again[?]

God reports ^ | April 22, 2020 | Mark Ellis

[daniel1212]

Many hold out hope for a vaccine to bring our present COVID-19 pandemic to an end. But development of a vaccine is not a certainty and could take months or years to develop, while millions suffer job losses and economic devastation. The second-best hope to escape our nightmare in a timely way is herd immunity.

A month ago, Dr. David L. Katz, wrote a significant piece in the New York Times, “Is our fight against Coronavirus worse than the disease?” He advocated a pivot from our current health policy to a “surgical approach” in fighting the disease. On April 19th, he appeared on the Mark Levin program, “Life, Liberty, & Levin,” with an updated view.

Dr. Katz is the founding director of Yale University’s Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center.

He observed that recent setbacks in Singapore and South Korea demonstrate that shutting people away only forestalls the inevitable spread of the virus.

“One of the things we’ve heard in the news is that Singapore did so well but now they are starting to have a resurgence of cases or South Korea the same. That’s what will happen if you lock everybody away from everybody else and wait for things to get better and then let everybody out in the world. The virus is still out there. We don’t have antibodies. We’ll just get it later,” he told Levin.

“If all you do is flatten the curve, you don’t prevent deaths or disease, you just change the dates. We don’t want to do that.”

He says there are only two options to prevent that course. One is a vaccine and the other is herd immunity.

“Herd immunity is when people who are prone to the milder forms of this infection get it, get over it, get antibodies and are immune…if I have antibodies, I can’t get it and I can’t give it to you, so it doesn’t matter if you’re vulnerable. If we shake hands you won’t get it from me.”

When enough people have antibodies, the virus can’t get through the population. “It finds it harder to get through to a host where it can survive and it dies out, that’s herd immunity,” Dr. Katz told Levin.

“This looks to me to be the best way where we can get to a place where grandparents can once again hug their grandchildren,” he noted. “I have 80-year-old parents and my mother doesn’t want to get coronavirus and die. She also doesn’t want to die of something else before ever being able to hug her grandchildren again because she’s still waiting for a vaccine.

“Herd immunity give us a much more proximal way to get back to life in the world as we knew it.”

In Dr. Katz’s piece in The Times, he wrote: “As we battle the coronavirus pandemic, and heads of state declare that we are ‘at war’ with this contagion, the same dichotomy applies. This can be open war, with all the fallout that portends, or it could be something more surgical. The United States and much of the world so far have gone in for the former. I write now with a sense of urgency to make sure we consider the surgical approach, while there is still time.”

His surgical approach involves preferentially protecting people with pre-existing conditions and those over age 60 from exposure, a position first advocated by this writer in a piece published March 24th.

“I’m trained in epidemiology and I understand the potential for a virus like this to hurt people and kill people. I’m also trained in social determinants of health and how food insecurity and unemployment and social upheaval can translate into health devastation,” he said.

One striking example is the 8,000% increase in calls coming into one of the three primary suicide prevention hotlines in the U.S. during the month of March due to COVID-19.

As Dr. Katz reviewed the data coming from China and South Korea, he was struck by the massive risk differentials, people at very high risk of severe complications from Coronavirus and potential death. At the same time there was an even greater segment of the population at massively lower risk.

“If that was true, a massive one-size-fits-all interdiction strategy – let’s keep everybody away from everybody and shut everything down – had the potential to hurt more people than it helped,” he concluded.

Sadly, this is the course recommended by President Trump’s closest medical advisors, which has led to job losses comparable to The Great Depression.

Tragically, as of April 20th, more than 42,000 have died due to COVID-19. But “there have been a thousand times as many people are being affected by economic upheaval and societal disruption,” Dr. Katz observed.

The original models projected millions potentially dying in the U.S. from the infection, then the numbers were lowered to hundreds of thousands, and finally the more recent estimates have been lowered to 60,000 dying – less than the seasonal flu in 2018.

The lowered estimate, however, is not due to the lock-down mitigation strategy, but because their models and data were wrong. “They never had enough data,” according to Dr. Katz.

While some say we must test everyone before the economy re-opens, Dr. Katz says a more modest and less time-consuming testing program can effectively guide good policy.

“We need to do what is called representative random sampling, a small population representative of a state or the U.S. That can take 72 hours…we do this data collection for three days and then pivot to vertical interdiction. We can phase people back to life as we knew it based on risk,” he told Levin.

It is already know that older people are at greater risk, along with those with heart disease and diabetes. “We can already say there are low-risk populations that can start to go back to the world. The CDC does these representative random samples all the time, so get that data and use it to inform public policy so we know who is at lower risk here and who can go back to the world.

“We have to go back to the world if we want the world back before there is a vaccine, which is 18 months to two years. We don’t know, it is just hope that we can have a vaccine – it could be much longer.”

The shocking conclusion is that those at low risk need to get the virus so that the vulnerable will be protected! “The only other way to get back to the world as we knew it is to develop herd immunity, which is to admit that those of us at low risk for severe infection actually need to get this thing and get over it and make antibodies.”

All of this should be data informed, according to Dr. Katz. Pivoting to a risk-based interdiction and phasing people back to work could start right away, as the work of gathering data proceeds to further refine the approach – always with the goal of minimizing harm.

“The virus can hurt people, unemployment can hurt people, social upheaval can hurt people. We want to minimize all of those harms across the expanse of public health and the economy.

“We already have a lot of information about these risk differentials and targeting protections to those who most need it and phasing people back in the world.

“This looks to me, as it did a month ago when I wrote in the New York Times, as the best way to minimize the total harms of this.”

[daniel1212]

One opinion, and while Covid-19 is not the flu, and the CDC estimates that influenza has only resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths in America annually since 2010, yet while the issue is why did we not see a comparative proportionate response to the Asian flu with its est. 500 million infection WW and 1–4 million deaths and 116,000 (according to the CDC) deaths in America, when the population was about half what it is today?

[Cowboy Bob]

Many hold out hope for a vaccine...

Each year, there is a vaccine for the flu...yet thousand still die. What makes people think that a vaccine for the coronavirus will prevent anyone from dying?

[daniel1212]

Each year, there is a vaccine for the flu...yet thousand still die. What makes people think that a vaccine for the coronavirus will prevent anyone from dying?

That will be for a replacement of panic=control when Democrats are in control.

[HollyB]

BS. I’ll say it again. I’m a bone marrow transplant patient. My son travels internationally. after he gets in from the airport, he changes his clothes snd I give him a hug. He’s been in and out of S Korea, Japan, Ireland for months, I can go on. I have an effed up immune system. He doesn’t have a sniffle nor do I. Why? We practice good hand washing. We learned good hygiene when I got AML leukemia and it’s kept me from getting sick.

[politicianslie]

What makes people think that a vaccine for the coronavirus will prevent anyone from dying?

Because Bill Gates and his whore Dr. Fauci have moved the goal posts. The original lock down goal was to flatten the curve so we didn't overload ICU/hospital staffs.

Now that hospitals are sending staff home because hospitals are nearly empty, it's time to get the vaccine registry scam going. Want a driver's license? Want to get on an airplane? Want to keep your job?

You'd better have your vaccine registry up to date. You will take what vaccines they tell you to take, or else.

I was talking to a DemonRAT voter the other day who has the SF whore ex-presidential candidate bumper sticker on her car and she was all in favor of a national vaccine registry. I asked her which is better, natural immunity or immunity from a vaccine?

Of course she picked vaccine immunity. Many Americans really are that dumb.

She wouldn't even take into consideration the fact that Pharma has immunity- from lawsuits.

There are three people who are NOT going to get vaccine immunity: ME and the two guys they send to inject me...

[Tennessee Nana]

New Zealand has just gone from Level ...

That means the schools are open so that children of workers have somewhere to go they will have class....the rest don’t have to go back to school until its mandatory at Level Two...

Also now my brother in NZ can visit and hug his children and grandchildren for the first time in 4 weeks... only family members...

The lockdown in NZ was house arrest...They didn’t have the freedom we have here in TN...we could leave home whenever we wanted to...

and its not winter out there as yet....

[silverleaf]

What makes people think the Fauci Birx Redfield team that has failed to produce a vaccine for hiv after 30 years of tax sucking research is gonna produce a miracle cure for covid19-20-21-22-23-24 and 25.

[Bratch]

'Paid for the damn virus that’s killing us': Giuliani rips Fauci over grants to Wuhan laboratory

by Madison Dibble | April 26, 2020

---

According to a report, the U.S. Intelligence Community has growing confidence that the current coronavirus strain may have accidentally escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology rather than from a wildlife market, as the Chinese Communist Party first claimed. During a Sunday interview on The Cats Roundtable, Giuliani questioned why the U.S. gave money to the lab.

"Back in 2014, the Obama administration prohibited the U.S. from giving money to any laboratory, including in the U.S., that was fooling around with these viruses. Prohibited! Despite that, Dr. Fauci gave $3.7 million to the Wuhan laboratory — even after the State Department issued reports about how unsafe that laboratory was, and how suspicious they were in the way they were developing a virus that could be transmitted to humans," he claimed.

He added, "We never pulled that money. Something here is going on, John. I don’t want to make any accusations. But there was more knowledge about what was going on in China with our scientific people than they disclosed to us when this first came out. Just think of it: If this laboratory turns out to be the place where the virus came from, then we paid for it. We paid for the damn virus that’s killing us.”

---

Direct link to interview

[Tennessee Nana]

Want a driver’s license? Want to get on an airplane? Want to keep your job?
____________________________________________________________

It also forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads, so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name This calls for wisdom. Let the person who has insight calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man. That number is 666.

Revelation 13:16-18

[daniel1212]

BS. I’ll say it again. I’m a bone marrow transplant patient. My son travels internationally. after he gets in from the airport, he changes his clothes snd I give him a hug. He’s been in and out of S Korea, Japan, Ireland for months, I can go on. I have an effed up immune system. He doesn’t have a sniffle nor do I. Why? We practice good hand washing. We learned good hygiene when I got AML leukemia and it’s kept me from getting sick.

That is good, though somehow that would be construed as racist if proposed as a solution.

[HollyB]

?? I don’t understand.

[HollyB]

Because I mentioned a hot spot like S Korea. I wasn’t even allowed to see my dr till 14 days had passed after I hAd contact with my son after he visited there. That was protocol for a while.

[SuperLuminal]

Yep... For us old folks (my wife & I) this chicom sneak attack has cost us:

1. Hugging lots of grandkids and great grandkids: Extremely Important;
2. Casino access (Wife-Slots;Me-Craps): Very Important;
3. Doctor appointments (Wife every couple of months-Heart): Important;
4. Bass fishing: Slightly Less Than Important;
5. Target practice (Just me): Not Too Important; and,
6. The nightmare of taking the wife grocery shopping (Called binge label-reading): Who Cares?-Not me!

[WildHighlander57]

From the article:

“Herd immunity is when people who are prone to the milder forms of this infection get it, get over it, get antibodies and are immune…if I have antibodies, I can’t get it and I can’t give it to you, so it doesn’t matter if you’re vulnerable. If we shake hands you won’t get it from me.”

When enough people have antibodies, the virus can’t get through the population. “It finds it harder to get through to a host where it can survive and it dies out, that’s herd immunity,” Dr. Katz told Levin.”

Who was it claimed that people couldn’t get immunity from the c-virus?

[G Larry]

In what area of life have we EVER demanded 100% Risk Free interaction?

[G Larry]

In what area of life have we EVER demanded 100% Risk Free interaction?

[DuncanWaring]

What makes people think a safe/effective vaccine for the coronavirus will ever exist?

[Texan5]

I’m glad that only your wife’s doc appointments and some of your important leisure activities have been affected by the Chinese virus-but for myself and many of my neighbors-we are all over 65, healthy and own/work our one-and two person businesses-mostly construction and mechanic work-we have been hammered by a loss of income by this lockdown, when things were just getting better after the Obama crash-quite a few of us think we might have had a mild case of it in March before we had started wearing gloves to gas up our trucks, getting stuff for work in the city instead of ordering it delivered to us here, etc-we stayed home, took natural remedies, got better in a week or so and probably have some local “herd immunity” now-the very few confirmed cases in the county were all traced to travel to either the SA or Houston area or out of state-those people recovered at home.

Since this is not a crowded city, and most of us do local business only-let the rural businesses get going again-let our customers open their hair salons, farmers’ markets feed stores, tourist traps, etc-we are already developing immunity-most of us never even get flu shots or take drugs, so let us get back to making a living-I’m sick of living like I did as a broke college student, counting every gallon of gas that goes in my 4x4 and doing without any item not a necessity the only thing missing this time around is that damn hamburger helper, ramen noodles and other dorm food...

[daniel1212]

That is good, though somehow that would be construed as racist if proposed as a solution.

?? I don’t understand.

Inferring people become infected thru poor personal hygiene would be construed as racist if proposed as a solution. By a conservative (not that I am fastidiously clean).

[daniel1212]

In what area of life have we EVER demanded 100% Risk Free interaction?

Only one when an election depends upon it.