Posted on 04/23/2020 7:26:19 AM PDT by know.your.why
Plus they have over a billion people there.
Their govt is probably HAPPY to get rid of a couple million, especially if they are old or chronically ill.
It’s all part and parcel of trying to rid the US of Trump. COVID has been around longer than the lies we are being fed.
Not everyone who needs to be tested gets tested. Some people get tested more than once and “they” do not want to test for antibodies because “they” look stupid. Actually like the liars and deceivers that they are.
I worry about the US that will emerge on the other side of this.
Thanks for your post.
While we will never know exactly how many would have died if we had just sat on our hands and watched the virus spread, the measures that were taken by Trump were both rational and, IMHO, necessary.
But many if not most here at good old FR don’t agree with that view. It seems to me that they an implicit belief that the curve would have flattened naturally with negligible impact on the death rates.
Listen to Tucker Carlson. He believes that the lockdown was unnecessary and, apparently, that curve would flatten by magic. I am waiting for him to explain the mechanism for that flattening.
But it is time to move on, to end the lockdown and the Trump Plan is good as any. Let Montana go back to work but wait awhile on New York. The death count will rise as we do this but hopefully at much slower rate. I expect that the current estimate of 60,000 deaths will be surpassed as things get back to normal.
Almost nothing make sense when it comes to this virus. It is becoming obvious to me that this whole pandemic is being used to rid the world of PDJT. The Dems, Media, the whole NIH, and the globalists (Gates, Soros, etc.) are conspiring to achieve this end. It is one hell of an uphill battle for Trump.
Amen. You beat me to it.
Well, we know our media and the dems never lie. And they were dead on accurate when it came to stuff like global warming, FISA and hillary clinton had 2016 in the bag.
I thought that the first Planet of the Apes remake, with Andy Serkis as Caesar, had a good last scene that showed how the "virus" spread.
The researcher's neighbor was an airline pilot, he had gotten the virus when someone from the lab, visiting the researcher, sneezed on him. They then show him going to work, at the airport. His nose begins to bleed and a droplet hits the floor. Someone walks in the blood, they begin the spread, as the pilot flies a plane into Europe. They then start a contagion map on how the virus spreads from there.
Easily understood and simple and deadly.
First, don’t look at cases. Cases means number tested, not numbers who have the virus. Cases means nothing unless they are randomized. And in randomized studies of antibodies in small populations, there are far more cases than anyone admits to. At the low end its 10 times more cases. And at the high end its 100 times more cases. Like the study in one California county by Stanford found 40 to 85 times more cases than reported.
So you should be looking at deaths per million population in first world countries. Europe is especially analogous to the US. Asian countries like South Korea Taiwan and Japan are Islands. They are also homogeneous. So they can control their population more. Europe has lots of ports of entry.
In Europe the deaths are somewhere between 600 at the high end to 60 at the low end for large countries that can be trusted to give reliable numbers. Reliable numbers are numbers that count deaths. But that does not mean they are all the same. There are deaths with comorbidities. And there are deaths in the presence of the virus. And their are deaths which have not been tested but circumstances or symptoms lead healthcare workers to assume the virus was most likely present even if there was no test to verify.
Hiding old people and people at risk while doing nothing else, you could look at Sweden and get 192 deaths per million. Germany did some more. Hide the old people and do small lock downs. They are at 63 deaths per million. Italy and Spain locked down after the virus was fully taken hold. They are around 450 deaths per million. The US is around 144 deaths per million. We are on the low side. Only Germany has fewer.
But you need to look at the states. In New York state the deaths per million are over a thousand. Next door in Jersey they are 570 per million. Between them they have more than 50% of all the cases in the US. And these two states did not record cases earlier than other states. So how is New York state fatality rate 2 to 10 times more than most other states and most other countries. There are two likely scenarios. New York is counting more deaths by counting deaths in the most liberal manner possible. And that is true. And their subway system and density may have spread the virus far more completely than the rest of the world. This can only be true if you believe New York was especially bad and late when it comes to shutting down. And that is demonstrably true as well.
New York did encourage people to go out and “enjoy the restaurants, and use the subways” right up to mid-March when virtually everyone else was closing down. And the counting of virus fatalities could be explained as attention grabbing, to get more support from the federal government and to make Trump look bad. Both encourage liberal fatality counting.
The virus is the same everywhere. So the strategy that seems to work the best is hiding the vulnerable and lightly locking down the worst behavior like large crowds and unprotected mass transit. Severe lock downs just get smacked by second waves, like in China, Singapore and Japan. And doing nothing can overwhelm the health system, like in Italy and Spain. Hiding the vulnerable and lightly locking down, saves the health system and quickly establishes herd immunity without destroying the economy.
We should open up. We will get a light second wave. But we can easily handle it now. The vulnerable should continue to hide as much as they can.
That could be related that people who live in big cities are more or less dependant on their government and choose big government politicians. Because they live in population dense environment...cov19 spreads fast. Solution: buy your stuff (one month supply) out of town. Hunker and if necessary bunker down....always have 6 months living income stashed away...
“How many times before it is so thick you can’t fold it any more.”
Answer: 7
I would agree and I think it points to this being a deliberate act. One strsin escaping may be an accident. Two strains centered in different parts of the world and resulting in far different outcomes...accident...I don’t think so.
A rounding error.
And I am beginning to wonder if this virus “antigen” packages resembles other human tiisue so that our immune system attacks other tissues. Supposedly it piggybacks in the cell via ACE2 receptors on our cell surfaces.
You are correct in surmising that it will take months to determine what really happened.. Our surveillance is so incomplete at present.
At present, a great bindrance in this battle is the politization of it by many democrat party hacks and their subservient media minions.
Apparently those on the front lines, in the media and both political parties, cannot overcome their inability to say “I was wrong” or to even say “fooled me.” The President hurts his own case sometimes when he fails to acknowledge even accepting bad information from his own team of experts, amplified by the experts doing the same. Talk about exponential rate of growth. Couldn’t just one genius say “sorry, I goofed and fed in some bad data. Mea culpa?”
The European (==Eastern US) virus is definitely a successful mutation of the virus that was in China. It outcompeted the Chinese version by its better ability to reproduce (thus to infect too).
The Western US virus is the original virus, thus the problems in California and St. of Washington -- places where the virus showed up first -- are minor comparing to the East Coast.
But: we don't even know who had the virus first: California or China or some other places. Estimates show that the weaker version of the virus existed as early as September 2019... but it also can be a mutation of something that existed in humans *somewhere* even earlier.
I agree with your last statement.
It can now be seen that specific demos in the population, i.e. age and other underlying conditions, are vulnerable to infection and death.
Allowing the rest of us to work while isolating the vulnerable and quarantining the sick is the way forward.
Unlimited Communist Chinese immigration into this country kills
So is ours. Watch what they do, not what they say.
Communist countries can shut things down way better than we can. Also they can lie about the stats way better. Our numbers really aren’t unfathomable. They’re basically the numbers you get when a nasty cold or flu runs through. The only difference is we’re paying attention. Usually we don’t.
You cited as your source for what you posted, but the latter is actually a comments and not the article. Nonetheless, aside from the data that you question, it does state this which is relevant to your question:
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...] - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison
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