How Control Theory Can Help Us Control COVID-19

IEEE Spectrum ^ | 17 April 2020 | Greg Stewart, Klaske van Heusden and Guy A. Dumont

[kosciusko51]

As we write these words, several billion people, the majority of the world’s population, are confined to their homes or subject to physical-distancing policies in an attempt to contain one of the worst pandemics of modern times. Economic activity has plummeted, countless people are out of work, and entire industries have ground to a halt.

Quite understandably, a couple of questions are on everyone’s mind: What is the exit strategy? How will we know when it’s safe to implement it?

Around the globe, epidemiologists, statisticians, biologists, and health officials are grappling with these questions. Though engineering perspectives are uncommon in epidemiological modeling, we believe that in this case public officials could greatly benefit from one. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t an obvious or typical engineering problem. But in its basic behavior it is an unstable, open-loop system. Left alone, it grows exponentially, as we have all been told repeatedly. However, there’s good news, too: Like many such systems, it can be stabilized effectively and efficiently by applying the principles of control theory, most notably the use of feedback.

[kosciusko51]

Interesting article on how to implement a coronavirus exit strategy.

[taxcontrol]

“Control” is an illusion.

[ClearCase_guy]

Better than KAOS.

[a fool in paradise]

>> in an attempt to contain one of the worst pandemics of modern times

AIDS has killed many more and they won’t close the bathhouses.

They also have changed laws so it is no longer criminal to withhold positive HIV-AIDS status from a (potential) sex partner. Informed consent? Social distancing? Abstinence? What’s that???

[rightwingcrazy]

I was hoping they would introduce concepts like Kalman filtering, that address the problem of unknown variables and other uncertainties which affect your results. The models that I’ve seen all seem to pretend that they’ve accounted for everything. Everything that’s important, anyway.

[GSWarrior]

Those who claim that “public health” is on their side will take any action to reinforce that assertion.

[kosciusko51]

What I think the authors were trying to show is that there are ways of easing back the restrictions so that the R0 rate remains low. Also, that binary restrictions/no restrictions are not a good idea.

[PGR88]

They also have changed laws so it is no longer criminal to withhold positive HIV-AIDS status from a (potential) sex partner. Informed consent? Social distancing? Abstinence? What’s that???

Excellent point. Part of the Left’s absolute political requirement for maximum-homosexuality-always-and-everywhere.

[kosciusko51]

I don’t disagree with you at all. None of those decisions were based on medical science, just politics.

[SunkenCiv]

It isn't about Covid19, it's about control. Hydroxychloroquine in the title, since the 12th (that was the most recent file).

• Coronavirus: Mumbai's Dharavi Slum Area to Become India's Stage For Hydroxychloroquine Experiment [04/20/2020 7:28:04 AM PDT]
• FDA allows Novartis to test Hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19: Study to be conducted in a dozen US Labs [04/20/2020 7:12:49 AM PDT]
• COVID-19 Survivor: "I Was Ready To Die" (More Hydroxychloroquine anecdotal stories in New York) [04/19/2020 8:49:54 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine: The Drug Costa Rica Uses Successfully To Fight Covid-19 [04/19/2020 8:33:58 PM PDT]
• 102-year-old grandma with 'that tough New York spirit' survives COVID-19 (Another Hydroxychloroquine anecdotal success story) [04/19/2020 8:25:49 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine: New York State remains under prohibition order against potentially life saving medication in the battle against COVID-19 [04/19/2020 8:20:50 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin treatment in 80 COVID-19 patients: short-term outcomes; New study reports the usefulness of a combination of HCQ and Azithromycin in mild cases o [04/19/2020 7:24:59 PM PDT]
• NYS Dr reply to patient inquiry for Hydroxychloroquine Treatment [04/19/2020 9:43:34 AM PDT]
• NBC News again tries to pin reported Hydroxychloroquine-adjacent death on Trump (More Fake News) [04/19/2020 7:23:44 AM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine, Other Autoimmune Drugs Don't Fully Protect Against COVID-19, Research Sponsored by Global Rheumatology Alliance Suggests [04/19/2020 6:28:07 AM PDT]
• Chloroquine gave Rita Wilson, Tom Hanks 'extreme' side effects (NOTE: Not Hydroxychloroquine) [04/18/2020 5:11:25 PM PDT]
• Factbox: U.S. hospitals differ on best use of Hydroxychloroquine for Coronavirus [04/18/2020 7:34:48 AM PDT]
• Will Hydroxychloroquine help fight COVID-19? This Vanderbilt University Medical Center trial is trying to find out [04/18/2020 7:11:12 AM PDT]
• Newport Beach Elderly Couple Survives Coronavirus After Being Hospitalized (Hydroxychloroquine) [04/17/2020 7:40:54 PM PDT]
• COVID-19 Treatment: India Ships Tons of Hydroxychloroquine To Now, 100-Plus Countries [04/17/2020 5:33:28 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine sales rise at Rite Aid pharmacies [04/17/2020 5:24:53 PM PDT]
• The Results Are In On The Texas Nursing Home Using Hydroxychloroquine (Good News!) [04/17/2020 5:15:59 PM PDT]
• Feds charge doctor who cited Trump to push Hydroxychloroquine 'miracle cure' [04/17/2020 11:55:41 AM PDT]
• Russia to treat virus cases with anti-malaria drug Hydroxychloroquine [04/17/2020 9:23:03 AM PDT]
• More Shoddy Hydroxychloroquine Journalism: From a Woman Who allegedly died because of it, to ignoring successful cases, the media shows its true colors [04/17/2020 7:51:19 AM PDT]
• Hey, NBC News, You Buried This Critical Detail in Your Article About Hydroxychloroquine And the Woman Who Died Allegedly Because of it [04/16/2020 8:08:10 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine Trial for Treating COVID-19 Disappoints [04/16/2020 8:03:10 PM PDT]
• Family of New York woman blames hydroxychloroquine combo for fatal heart attack [04/16/2020 5:45:54 PM PDT]
• India provides Hydroxychloroquine to over 50 countries. FULL LIST [04/16/2020 8:20:02 AM PDT]
• Elderly Arkansas woman, 99, on track to recover from Coronavirus after taking Hydroxychloroquine [04/16/2020 7:42:53 AM PDT]
• 39 elderly Texans successfully complete hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19, doctor says; No side effects [04/15/2020 7:58:33 PM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine doesn't help patients with coronavirus, French study finds (This study chose patients already with hypoxic pneumonia) [04/15/2020 7:56:16 PM PDT]
• Governor Cuomo acting like a King with Hydroxychloroquine use for CoVid19 virus [04/15/2020 7:27:08 PM PDT]
• Trump meets with recovered Coronavirus patients, touts Hydroxychloroquine; Some in the meeting have anecdotally said the drug has helped them [04/15/2020 7:50:43 AM PDT]
• US clinical trials of Hydroxychloroquine hit 'warp speed,' could show in weeks whether it works on Coronavirus [04/15/2020 7:46:48 AM PDT]
• LA doctor seeing success with zinc and hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 [04/14/2020 9:23:27 PM PDT]
• FEMA ships out nearly 20 million Hydroxychloroquine tablets [04/14/2020 6:13:49 PM PDT]
• Coronavirus pandemic | Here's a list of nations that India has helped with Hydroxychloroquine supply [04/14/2020 12:01:49 PM PDT]
• Is Hydroxychloroquine hype hampering enrollment in Gilead's Covid-19 drug trials? [04/14/2020 11:57:49 AM PDT]
• Donald Trump Meets Michigan Democrat Treated with Hydroxychloroquine [04/14/2020 11:17:40 AM PDT]
• Democrat Voters, Wealthy Far Less Willing to Try Hydroxychloroquine if They Contract COVID-19 [04/14/2020 10:40:51 AM PDT]
• Calgary researchers hope to prove Hydroxychloroquine effective in COVID-19 treatment [04/14/2020 7:00:32 AM PDT]
• CT doctors say controversial anti-malaria drug helping Coronavirus patients (Hydroxychloroquine) [04/14/2020 6:57:08 AM PDT]
• Why Did Fauci CHEER When Hydroxychloroquine Was Used In 2013 For MERS, But Is Now Skeptical For Coronavirus? [04/13/2020 3:28:36 PM PDT]
• Alberta trial to look at whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent COVID-19 hospitalization [04/13/2020 3:25:14 PM PDT]
• North Dakota: Sanford Health to conduct clinical trial for Hydroxychloroquine as COVID-19 treatment [04/13/2020 3:23:01 PM PDT]
• A Small Trial Finds That Hydroxychloroquine Is Not Effective For Treating Coronavirus [04/13/2020 3:21:05 PM PDT]
• Universityf Kansas Medical Center to participate in clinical trial of Hydroxychloroquine in healthcare workers [04/13/2020 3:19:55 PM PDT]
• Even with Hydroxychloroquine politicized, 53% GOP would take it, just 18% of Democrats [04/13/2020 3:08:12 PM PDT]
• 'Going on offense': South Dakota implements first statewide hydroxychloroquine trial in fight against coronavirus [04/13/2020 11:00:17 AM PDT]
• Fauci's Shady History With Hydroxychloroquine, Vaccines [04/13/2020 10:10:00 AM PDT]
• Hydroxychloroquine 'is the best that we've got,' N.J. doctors say, though its Coronavirus success isn't proven [04/13/2020 7:01:35 AM PDT]
• Coronavirus crisis: Netanyahu thanks PM Modi for delivering hydroxychloroquine to Israe [04/12/2020 7:05:15 PM PDT]
• Sen. Ron Johnson calls on President Trump to loosen restrictions on Hydroxychloroquine [04/12/2020 5:59:12 PM PDT]
• Some Patients Really Need the Drug That Trump Keeps Pushing; When he touts Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 shortages endanger those of us who need it. [04/12/2020 5:25:52 PM PDT]
• Coronavirus Drug Side Effects: What To Know About Hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir [04/12/2020 5:21:33 PM PDT]
• Coronavirus: UAE says it is successfully treating patients with Hydroxychloroquine [04/12/2020 5:10:02 PM PDT]
• hydroxychloroquine [04/12/2020 2:51:28 PM PDT]
• Prominent Republican physician champions hydroxychloroquine [04/12/2020 1:43:26 PM PDT]
• Former NFL player who recovered from the coronavirus says hydroxychloroquine 'worked great' as treatment [04/12/2020 9:55:28 AM PDT]
• Spain Launches Large-scale Study Of Hydroxychloroquine And Antiretrovirals To Prevent Covid-19 In Health Workers [04/12/2020 9:48:26 AM PDT]

[Governor Dinwiddie]

Great article. Thanks for posting. Makes perfect sense.

[kosciusko51]

Thank you. A friend who is a controls expert sent it to me.

[FreedomPoster]

Actually they have, in SF, but they were talking about reopening them. I imagine the pandemic will kill that talk.

[familyop]

The economy could be thriving with measures to keep employees and customers from spreading the disease while working and shopping, if the troublemakers trying to spread it were shut down or removed.

[GOPJ]

Maybe China wants to ‘clean out the riff raff’ so they can spread their filthy hellhole to all corners of the globe...

Maybe they’re so stupid they think our kindness comes from weakness rather than from our strength.

Maybe they’re in for a gruesome surprise.

[GOPJ]

Maybe China wants to ‘clean out the riff raff’ so they can spread their filthy hellhole to all corners of the globe... Maybe they’re so stupid they think our kindness comes from weakness rather than from our strength.

Then again, maybe the Chinese will wake up before they’ve ruined everything....

[nagant]

I'm trying this here. It's new to me.

[Truthoverpower]

Control fear

That is all