Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?

When reports of a new virus circulating in China’s Hubei province first began to emerge, I was cautious about overreacting. I’ve reported on health long enough to know that just because a pathogen is new doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a crisis.

Of course, I quickly realized this isn’t just any virus. We’re currently battling a global pandemic unlike any we’ve seen in over a century.

But it’s also not the first modern virus we’ve faced. In the past two decades, the world battled Ebola, SARS and more than one major flu outbreak. Those left tragedies in their wake but didn’t cause the same level of societal and economic disruption that COVID-19 has. As a result, they can help us understand this new coronavirus — to capture how unique our new reality is, it helps to look back at similar outbreaks that threatened to upend society, but ultimately stopped short.

In late 2002, an emerging pathogen that likely spilled over from the animal world started to cause severe respiratory illness in China. Sound familiar? Through the first half of 2003, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) spread through 26 countries, infecting at least 8,098 people and killing at least 774.

If the name didn’t give it away, SARS was caused by a virus similar to the one that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, but it didn’t have nearly the same impact. This is in spite of having a relatively high case fatality rate of 9.6 percent, compared to the current estimate for COVID-19: 1.4 percent.

Another respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, has an even higher case fatality rate of 34 percent. But it’s also led to fewer deaths than what we’ve already seen from COVID-19:

So far Covid has less deaths in the US than the Asian flu of 1957–58 for which 116,000 American deaths are assigned (among about half of today's total US population). Also there was the Hong Kong flu of 1968–69 with its 100,000 American deaths.

How did America endure (by the grace of God): Major modern influenza pandemics: Basic source is from Wikipedia, but with specific US data added as well as for the 2017-18 flu season, with other words in [brackets] being added, and formatting improved, while reference numbers are removed for clarity (see original for such)

Name	[Main]Date	U.S. population	World pop.	Sub-type	Reproduction rate	Infected (est.)	U.S. Deaths	[Tot.] Deaths world-wide	U.S. fatality rate	[World] Case fatality rate	Pandemic severity	I also added this column: During the 2017-2018 flu season the the % of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks, and exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. For this 2019-20 season, the CDC reports (March 28) that deaths due to P&I was 7.4%, which is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. The increase is due to an increase in pneumonia deaths rather than influenza deaths and may be associated with COVID-19. However, the CDC reports now that the flu rate is low and its FluView data has been discontinued, even though the percentage of pneumonia and influenza is above the epidemic threshold of 7.0% for week 15. The reason for this discontinuation is likely because deaths that are normally attributed to influenza are being listed as due to Covid.
1889–90 flu pandemic [Russian influenza]	1889–90	62,979,766	1.53 billion	Likely H3N8 or H2N2	2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[33]	20–60% (300–900 million)	[13,000**]	1 million	N/A	0.10–0.28%	2
1918 flu	1918–20	103,208,000	1.80 billion	H1N1	1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)	33% (500 million) or >56% (>1 billion)	[500,000 to 675,000]	20–100 million	N/A	2–3% or ~4%, or ~10% ~10%	5
Asian flu	1957–58	171,984,130	2.90 billion	H2N2	1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)	>17% (>500 million)	[116,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2% [0.6%]	2
Hong Kong flu	1968–69	200,706,052	3.53 billion	H3N2	1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)	>14% (>500 million)	[100,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2%	2
2009 flu pandemic	2009–10	308,745,538	6.85 billion	H1N1/09	1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)	11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)	[12,469]	151,700–575,400	[0.02%]	0.03%	1
2017–18 flu season*	2017–2018	325,084,756	7.53 billion	H1N1 / H3N2	1.53	45 million	[61,099 (prior est. 80,000)]	N/A		N/A	N/A
Typical seasonal flu	Every year		7.75 billion	A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ...	1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)	5–15% (340 million – 1 billion) 3–11% or 5–20% (240 million–1.6 billion)	[12,000 to 61,000]	290,000–650,000/year	N/A	<0.1%	1
2019–20 seasonal flu	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion	A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2)	[1.4 to about 5]	11%[t 2] (800 million[t 2])	[Over 24,000 as of March 28]	0.45-1.2 million[t 2])	N/A	ongoing	1
COVID-19	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion			[2,313,897 4-18, 3p]	[38,244 April 18, 3p]	[159,033 April 18, 3p]
[Notes * P+I deaths at or above epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. *as should be assumed in other cases, death rates include those due to complications accompanying the flu. We have the CDC morality rates for the flu per state for 2017-18 (13 states above 17 per 100,000 total population) and for Covid here (only 5 states above 17 per 100,000 people, as of April 16). And according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm)* with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. Meanwhile a study in Iceland reports that as of April 11, the country has “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” and that “about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic” (show no symptoms), which is “a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.” Another report is that those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/) Other infectious diseases include: Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and the mortality rate for SARS, that killed nearly 800 people, is estimated at 1 % by the C C, and with a R rating of 5. MERS, which stands for Middle East re respiratory syn drone, had a mortality rate of 5% and a R rating of 2]. Measles: Mortality rate: unclear; R rating: 12 to 18 Ebola Mortality rate: exceeds 50% R rating: about 2 Source: .cnbc.com]

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