Corona Virus Daily Thread #43

[LilFarmer]

Previous thread here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3833419/posts

[chris37]

You know what I think. I think each of us might try to find something to do on a given day that we really love, but that, to the best of your ability, doesn’t carelessly endanger anyone else.

Truth of the matter is that the human spirit must be free.

One of the worst things about Coronavirus, aside from the obvious horrible death, is the horrible life. How it oppresses and isolates and makes suspicious and defensive. I can’t even have my best friend over, because he may... well I won’t even say it. This thing sucks.

I did a thing that was a risk today. I could end up regretting it. But I chose to take that risk, and in doing so, I stated that I am free. The water washed so much fear away. I know it will be back. Today it was gone, and that tasted good.

[plushaye]

NJ and NYC ER docs are seeing a turnaround - more discharges, more patients off ventilators.

In an NJ hospital, when a patient is recovered enough to be taken off vent or is discharged, there’s a special signal that raises the spirits of the medical staff. They get the overhead music to play a special Beatles song...

@DrSamGirgis tweets today: “”When a #COVID19 patient is being discharged or comes off the ventilator call the switchboard operator by dialing 0. The operator will play Here Comes The Sun overhead” ...And I’ve been hearing it ALL DAY!”

[Paul R.]

To be fair, there was SOME modest mitigation of flu in 2017-18, and, of course, a vaccine which was rather off target, but did SOME good nonetheless. Around here, some school districts closed briefly, and I observed sanitizer in short supply.

One wonders how much a vigorous PSA campaign of simple measures but no business shutdowns would have helped. I’ll bet that death toll could have been reduced 25% or more.

[Paul R.]

Agreed. That Wikipedia article is quite informative: Sweden is actually doing quite a bit of mitigation — what would have seemed like drastic measures here, a couple months ago. Yet they still are having a rough go of it.

[amorphous]

Thank you for the link and for the kind words!

You got me to thinking with your talk about a barrier, though I had been thinking along the same lines. Notice Italy with its gradual slope to a DFR of 3 on previous graph. So, what if we took Italy's slope and applied it to the US. And lets say in about 20 days, the US hits 3, Italy's number now - though frankly I'm not too sure the US will be that low in 20 days. Using that anyway, below is what our actual curve might look like, barring any errors on my part, and projected out for 20 days from today.

The peak in this projection is on the 23rd of April. And the 27+k on the 15th, closely matches a previous 27K projection on the 15th I had made on the 6th. I think the "peak" is going to be much flatter than the pros are predicting. What do you think, and how low of a DFR number do you think we realistically may be at by the 30th?

[miserare]

LOL!

[chris37]

I don’t know if it’s just me being tired, but I’m looking at that graph thinking that’s a whole lot of deaths. And then it doesn’t just stop on the 30 either. I really hope that doesn’t happen.

[BenLurkin]

No, the coronavirus is not the leading cause of death in the US, CDC says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-not-leading-cause-of-death-us-trnd/index.html

[Myrddin]

I've been waiting for months for a warm enough day and free time to enjoy taking my motorcycle out. Today was it. 66 degrees. All critical software complete. 40 minutes cruising on my Yamaha SR400. No need to fire up the big Harley. It was nice to get the 70 hour week millstone complete. Next week is clean up documentation and the start of work with a completely different project.

Tonight I worked off a couple more Security+ training modules. I'll need that cert for the cybersecurity assignments ahead.

Thanks for the pics of Petunia playing in the water. I have 8 dogs here. They enjoyed a romp in the backyard after I returned from the bike ride. Even the Maine Coon cat took a stroll out to nibble some grass.

[blueplum]

trouble in SAUDI

Up to 150 members of the Saudi royal family ‘are infected with coronavirus’: King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman ‘have both gone into isolation to avoid the outbreak’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204099/Up-150-members-Saudi-royal-family-infected-coronavirus.html

[gleeaikin]

In MD/VA/DC area the death rate amont blacks and Latinos is much higher than for whites. In addition to lower income and food deserts, there is the added factor of skin pigmentation, so I think that subclinical VItamin D deficiency is an important factor. Vitamin D is formed in skin oils by the sun and absorb into the body over hours. No sun, no skin (as in winter), no oil, no absorption. Also pigmentation from tropical racial origin protects from too much sun. Good near the equator, not so much here. In addition many have lactose intolerance so might miss the modest D amounts in milk as well. I am alerting local black and Latino politicians and activists on this topic.

[blueplum]

REVEALED: There are TWO strains of coronavirus spreading in Australia - as the virus mutates to beat people’s immune systems

Type A is closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and has two sub-clusters
One sub-cluster linked to Wuhan and the other to Australia and the US
Type B is derived from type A and has become the most prevalent in Wuhan
Type C is the ‘daughter’ of type B and has been recorded in Sydney

The genetic history of the coronavirus was mapped from December 24 to March 4, revealing three distinct, but closely related, variants. Scientists believe the virus may be constantly mutating to overcome differing levels of immune system resistance in different populations

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209837/There-TWO-strains-coronavirus-spreading-Australia.html

don’t know how this coorelates with the earlier talked about type S and type L

[amorphous]

>>>No, the coronavirus is not the leading cause of death in the US, CDC says<<<

Is this the same CDC who told you that masks were not effective?

---

There are no data to support that theory," Jeff Lancashire, a spokesperson for the National Center for Health Statistics, said in an email on Friday.
US coronavirus deaths pass 14,000, but future projections are better than expected
US coronavirus deaths pass 14,000, but future projections are better than expected
False claims declaring that coronavirus has become the leading cause of death in the US have swirled as the US leads the world in coronavirus cases. Those claims are made by some experts comparing how many people die of coronavirus daily with the estimate of how many people may die daily on average of each leading cause of death, using CDC data.

---

There's 2017 data. It should be close enough for this purpose:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Website snapshot:

The leading cause of death in 2017 was heart disease: 647,457 died from heart disease, according to the snapshot above from the CDC website.

647,457 / 365 days = 1,774 deaths per day from heart disease in 2017.

According to worldometers.info, 2,035 died yesterday from the Coronavirus.

It appears to take the CDC a minimum of two years to do anything, even to total fatalities for different diseases. And no doubt they'll quibble over using 2017 data for a reference.

[amorphous]

I hope it doesn’t happen either. And a lot can happen to change those numbers, plus it’s an experimental metric and unproven - so there’s that. With this in mind, the numbers are a low-ball estimate boarding on hopeful thinking.

[Fury]

“COVID-19 Update”

- see https://www.coalitionforthehomeless.org/covid-19/

[Paul R.]

So, in other words, 1% of the Saudi royal family is infected.

[blueplum]

... some people experiencing the symptoms above are also reporting a new symptom - a ‘fizzing’ or ‘buzzing’ feeling in their skin.

...In response to the tweet another person described their similar experience saying: “Wow, I thought I was imagining the buzzing, fizzing type feeling

...”Along with the fever he had something we had not read about: sensitive skin.
“His skin felt like it was burning - even when he barely had a fever of 99+.
“We literally used aloe gel for sunburn to soothe it.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-patients-describe-horrifying-new-21847282

convulsions at 102.9? viral meningitis? something CNS?

[blueplum]

FLORIDA - Walton County

Mike Huckabee sues police for threatening to arrest him on his private beach

The residents say that the Walton County order is too strict and prevents them from engaging in activities that the state’s one allows.

Their complaint claims that police officers have been patrolling the area and threatening to “arrest or fine Plaintiffs, their family members, or invitees on their private properties.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/coronavirus-mike-huckabee-sue-police-arrest-private-beach-a9459896.html

[blueplum]

LONDON - PM

Boris Johnson has been moved out of intensive care and back on to a hospital ward, Downing Street has said.
The prime minister will be closely monitored by doctors at St Thomas’ Hospital in London in the early stages of his recovery from coronavirus but he is said to be in “extremely good spirits”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-intensive-care-symptoms-update-icu-latest-a9458536.html

[blueplum]

AFRICA

Coronavirus: Gorillas and orangutans on lockdown to avoid catching Covid-19 from humans

Countries home to gorillas including Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have all temporarily suspended gorilla tourism and severely restricted access to the parks, according to the organisation Gorilla Doctors, which provides veterinary care in these countries.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/coronavirus-gorillas-orangutans-lockdown-africa-indonesia-covid-19-a9459076.html