Posted on 04/07/2020 11:38:17 AM PDT by Swordmaker
Two problems with the “herd immunity” approach:
1. Assumes “acceptable losses”. It assumes enough have gotten it and survived, that the next wave has insufficient vectors for propagation ... which conveniently overlooks those who did get it and _didn’t_ survive. I suspect you’re with me in the “increasing risk” category, and I’m not keen on finding out the hard way whether my ticker is strong enough to fight off a bout of CV. Requires gov’t to declare a certain percentage of the population will die for the greater good; some countries might opt for this, but not ours.
2. Assumes medical facilities can manage the spike of cases resulting from letting the first wave go thru the population. They can’t, hence the “flatten the curve” imperative.
“The fact of the matter is that the treatment of this infection is completely different from any previous viral infection of the past.”
This virus has never been seen in the past (hence the word ‘novel’ when it was named). Everyone watched as it spread & seemed to devastate China and we had no idea what was really going on because the Chinese weren’t honest & forthcoming. It was discovered soon after that it was related to the deadly SARS virus. So, fear has played a big part in the world’s reaction to it. It turned out to be more contagious than other viruses, and now it’s looking like the damage to lungs & heart may be permanent in some people.
I’m hoping in the next few weeks that people will be able to return to more normal lives and those who are sick, or susceptible & more prone to serious complications are the ones remaining in quarantine.
No, it's stupid not to let this pass through the healthy part of the population as quickly as possible so the virus has fewer hosts to infect the vulnerable.
Only if you believe the original model. That’s been disproved. It’s not. They’ve discounted that now and are disavowing that model. The real world experience is now where near the predicted model numbers and in some cases 6, 8 or 40.5 times LOWER than what was predicted, depending on what the expectations were.
It is also being revealed that the are exaggerating deaths supposedly being caused by COVID19 by what ever means possible. For example a Suicide in Las Vegas was listed as a COVID19 related death, an 18 year old, listed as the youngest COVID19 in the UK, turned out to have actually have died from Leukemia and just tested Positve for COVID19, in Hamburg Germany, 50% of the COVID deaths have been reclassified as non-COVID when examined by forensic Pathologists who found cause of death to be something else, etc. In Italy, the death rate curve is hardly being raised over those expected in a normal year by the addition of the COVID19 cases in the demographics being hit. . . and what higher numbers there are might be attributed to the changes in care due to the very mitigation efforts when very high risk patients were given less care because care levels dropped due to care givers leaving nursing homes to return to their own homes under government quarantine orders. The news media made a breathless report of over 50 physicians in Italy dying during the Coron19 crisis. . . But:
Various media reported that more than 50 doctors in Italy have already died „during the corona crisis“, like soldiers in a battle. A glance at the corresponding list, however, shows that most of the deceased are retired doctors of various kinds, including 90-year-old psychiatrists and pediatricians, many of whom may have died of natural causes. (!!!!)
A mere study of statistics would show that approximately 50 retired and non-retired elderly physicians in Italy would have died during a similar period of time, irrespective of the Corona virus’ presence. Note that the new media never claimed they died of CORON19, just that they had died. This is hype on steroids.
Do you think it might be because they had proven effective therapeutic treatments, the flu wasn't as contagious or deadly, and lots of people at highest risk had been vaccinated?
Just allow your freedoms to be taken away, Semi. Go ahead. KOWTOW away. Bow down to your masters...
Right.
You asked a question in your post and I, as well as about a dozen other FReepers, gave you the obvious answer.
Now you're on about unknown bad guys seizing control and who knows what else.
Can you at least stick to the topic of your own vanity?
My lady and I were already avoiding close contact with others in self-defense as we are both at risk both health and age wise. We are not stupid. We do not need government nannies to tell us what we need to do. . . and we especially don’t need the government mommy to ORDER us what to do.
Even though thousands die from influenza every year I don't consider it a "deadly" disease. In the same vein COVID is not a "deadly" disease. It is at most a nuisance to 99% of the population.
Then people will be asking why you didn't do the obvious thing with such a contagious disease.
We know in general who's at higher risk of death, but not of contracting the disease.
Lot's of younger, otherwise fairly healthy people have ended up in the hospital, and the big point of flattening the curve has been to keep the disease within the capacity of our healthcare system.
Your definition has been duly noted.
Lots'? LOL. Almost NONE is more like it. Some young people have health problems and they were not self quarantining correctly is the reason why that tiny minority got ill.
When was the last time you heard about a friend or a relative coming down with the flu and you considered them to be in a life threatening situation? I can only speak for myself and I have never considered the flu a death sentence.
Because if they didn’t quarantine the healthy, the healthy would be able to go to work and the economy would stay healthy.
It’s fine that no visitors are allowed in nursing homes for example and younger people who know they are immuno-suppressed need to stay inside but the rest of this is nonsense.
They are being revised downward because we did not do what China did. China kept denying there was a problem and let their people roam and travel freely. Their casualty reports are just lies. They had massive amounts of death in China, and they are still lying about it.
Had we simply ignored the threat as China did early on, our death tolls would be much worse.
Nah, not really, Just a few.
But not the country or the world. That’s where this has gone off the rails. Yes, we’ve quarantined people coming from a specific location. We’ve forced people to stay on Ellis Island for three weeks before being allowed on to the mainland. We have NOT forced New York City residents to stay inside every time an Ocean Liner arrived at the dock. That’s the difference.
We are treating this using a MODEL based on the same math as GLOBAL WARMING! Bogus math. . . Only this math is showing to be bogus a lot faster than the bogus math of Global Warming math model can be shown to be bogus. Even the guy behind the model has admitted he was WRONG! It’s nowhere nearly so bad as he thought it would be. His model for the UK deaths from COVID is now 20 times LOWER than his original prediction upon which they made all of their policy decisions. Many of our state governors made their policy decision using HIS models. . . yet they have not changed their policies despite his disavowal of his model three weeks ago!
How bad does a virus have to be before you say "we should stop interacting in public"?
You seem to think that there is a number that signifies a significant enough risk to justify the current measures being taken.
Okay, how many people would have to die to make you decide that quarantine is a good idea?
Also, don't believe any of the numbers out of China. They are simply lying out their @$$.
I think it was not grossly overestimated about how contagious it is. I think it has been underestimated about how contagious it is. I think it is probably the most contagious thing we've ever seen.
I also don't think it has been grossly overestimated how deadly it is. I think it's pretty d@mned deadly, but we have better medical care than was available in China.
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