[Swordmaker]

Many times in history the well have been quarantined. Stopped what ever it was from spreading and after the quarantine you know you didn’t have it. Sometimes you would quarantine a whole town or ship if you had a single suspected case.

But not the country or the world. That’s where this has gone off the rails. Yes, we’ve quarantined people coming from a specific location. We’ve forced people to stay on Ellis Island for three weeks before being allowed on to the mainland. We have NOT forced New York City residents to stay inside every time an Ocean Liner arrived at the dock. That’s the difference.

We are treating this using a MODEL based on the same math as GLOBAL WARMING! Bogus math. . . Only this math is showing to be bogus a lot faster than the bogus math of Global Warming math model can be shown to be bogus. Even the guy behind the model has admitted he was WRONG! It’s nowhere nearly so bad as he thought it would be. His model for the UK deaths from COVID is now 20 times LOWER than his original prediction upon which they made all of their policy decisions. Many of our state governors made their policy decision using HIS models. . . yet they have not changed their policies despite his disavowal of his model three weeks ago!

[CJ Wolf]

“But not the country or the world. That’s where this has gone off the rails.”

It is a bit mad. Cant say I disagree but we find ourselves here.

[semimojo]

Even the guy behind the model has admitted he was WRONG!

That's not true.

This is what Neil Ferguson, the man behind the Imperial College study, said:

"I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged."

His model for the UK deaths from COVID is now 20 times LOWER than his original prediction upon which they made all of their policy decisions.

Do some research.

The Imperial College Covid-19 study provided a range of possible deaths in the UK of 5,600-550,000, depending the timing and type of mitigation strategies implemented.

The paper made 80 separate projections based on the combination of measures taken. This was and remains useful information for policymakers.

The model hasn't changed, only the policies and behaviors of the population.