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The Curve Is Already Flat
Medium.com ^ | 4-3-20 | A.J. Kay

Posted on 04/05/2020 2:43:50 PM PDT by Valpal1

But there’s one data point being used in all of the prevailing models, including Imperial, that no one is talking about.

When did the COVID curve begin?

And it’s an important point. How can we interpret the data we currently have if we don’t know where on the time axis we actually are?

(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Education; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19
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To: CatOwner

You have to remember that prior to that date, they weren’t looking for or testing for covid-19.


21 posted on 04/05/2020 3:04:56 PM PDT by loucon
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To: Valpal1

Presume it is flat. The $64,000 question becomes what next?


22 posted on 04/05/2020 3:05:26 PM PDT by bramps (It's the Islam, stupid!)
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To: CatOwner

Me too


23 posted on 04/05/2020 3:08:43 PM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheelbarrow)
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24 posted on 04/05/2020 3:10:40 PM PDT by KavMan
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To: CatOwner

Same here. Co-worker got really sick with covid symptoms about 12 weeks ago.


25 posted on 04/05/2020 3:11:27 PM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: Valpal1

Beware.. this is a site KNOWN To present news that is 100% FAKE.


26 posted on 04/05/2020 3:13:44 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!it)
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To: Valpal1

Is it this article?

https://www.hsacoalition.org/web-briefing/kay-the-curve-is-already-flat/

If so, ask a Mod to link to it.


27 posted on 04/05/2020 3:15:20 PM PDT by NoLibZone (The Dems in conjunction with the MSM trashed the entire World economy to get at one guy.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Facist big brother ate the article.

“410 this post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules. There are thousands of stories to read on Medium.”


28 posted on 04/05/2020 3:16:30 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad ("the media are selling you a line of soap)
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To: loucon

That totally fails to account for mild cases that may have been raging for weeks or months prior to reaching the more susceptible population which tends to not get out as much.


29 posted on 04/05/2020 3:16:32 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: monkeyshine

“Social media war against the first amendment continues.”

The site itself says the story violates site rules.

Occasionally things happen that aren’t a conspiracy. It’s rare but it can happen.


30 posted on 04/05/2020 3:17:14 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
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To: Valpal1

First, Medium is just a blog.

Second, the CV-19 impact is just starting in the country.

It’s been a few weeks. These kinds of charts are useless until it’s been about a year.

If the point is that you should be allowed outside to congregate—go ahead. No one is going to stop you.


31 posted on 04/05/2020 3:17:28 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: NoLibZone

They only link back to Medium which has killed the article.


32 posted on 04/05/2020 3:19:48 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: KavMan

Wow.


33 posted on 04/05/2020 3:21:40 PM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: KavMan

I wish that model would keep track of projections as time moves forward. Instead they are running actual data from the past with the prediction on the right side. That way the previous prediction is erased.

Scroll down to see what I mean;
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


34 posted on 04/05/2020 3:25:20 PM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: Vermont Lt

Actually the point was that they need to ramp up antibody testing ASAP to definitively establish a seed date because there a many people being denied timely diagnostic services for cancer, diabetes, etc.

If they are wrong about the date, the models are wrong. Let’s be honest, the models aren’t standing up well to the real time data.


35 posted on 04/05/2020 3:25:28 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: Valpal1

So is the economy. DOA


36 posted on 04/05/2020 3:26:46 PM PDT by cp124 (Time for America 2.0)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Yeah, I wonder what rule that might be?

Obviously couldn’t read the article but the charts seemed well prepared. I doubt it was censored for cuss words or inciting violence.


37 posted on 04/05/2020 3:28:37 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: NoLibZone

https://web.archive.org/web/20200405014431/https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0

Ooh, the wayback machine updated and it is there!


38 posted on 04/05/2020 3:29:01 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: tomkat

It was cached. This is courtesy of another freeper.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:MWTCsraq8nMJ:https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0&client=firefox-b-1-d&hl=en&gl=us&strip=1&vwsrc=0&fbclid=IwAR0g9Qas0wGTZZ1jzydAr0SPGtfheo2xRxjDjJNEm-Rw-27gczrAxMS5wYY


39 posted on 04/05/2020 3:29:05 PM PDT by meatloaf
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To: SaxxonWoods

From their home page:

Medium is not like any other platform on the internet. Our sole purpose is to help you find compelling ideas, knowledge, and perspectives. We don’t serve ads—we serve you, the curious reader who loves to learn new things. Medium is home to thousands of independent voices, and we combine humans and technology to find the best reading for you—and filter out the rest.


40 posted on 04/05/2020 3:30:50 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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