COVID-19 Update - 04/01/2020

My own workup | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

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COVID-19 Update

As of 03/31/2020 22:37 PDT (taken at 23:59)

To the report...

This information addresses solely the United States

A Trend vs A Base Camp

Several days ago I was feeling pretty good about a decrease
in the volume of growth I had observed, and was presenting
to you. It looked like we were seeing a trend toward
stagnation in growth. Sadly, the numbers have begun to grow
rapidly again.

The flatening of the growth of each previous day, appeared
to be developing a plateau. Instead it now looks more like
COVID-19 was simply building a base camp.

Lets go to the numbers.

            EOD    Day's  Size of
Date      Cases    Grwth     Gain
03/22    33,206    8,459
03/23    46,442   11,236
03/24    54,893    8,789
03/25    60,197   13,966    5,177        
03/26    85,991   16,794    2,828
03/27   104,839   18,848    2,054
03/28   124,665   19,826      978
03/29   143,025   18,360   -1,466
03/30   164,620   21,595    3,235
03/31   189,624   25,004    3,409

For the last two days, the number of new cases grew by
the previous day's rise plus 3,235 cases and then 3,409
cases.

Notice that one week ago on 03/24, we had 54,893 cases.

So COVID-19 has left the base camp and is headed for the
summit.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

Let's take a moment to address where the U. S. stands
in relation to rest of the nations in the world.

Several days ago I touched on the fact that the U. S.
populace is roughly 4.252% of the global populace.
Despite this, we have 22.045% of the declared cases.
If we address just the current active cases of which
99.57% are now outside Mainland China, we have 27.89%
of them. Not real thrilled about these numbers.

Today our daily resolved case number came in at 2,629.
That's the highest we've seen, by 832 cases, and it's
going to go up more in the coming days.

This helps us a little bit to keep our active cases down.
At the end of the day 03/31/2020, we have 178,318 active
cases in the United States.

Fatalities in the United States

                   Per
Date       Fatal   Day
03/26/20   1,301	
03/27/20   1,704   403
03/28/20   2,229   525
03/29/20   2,484   255
03/30/20   3,170   686
03/31/20   3,889   719

To keep them in perspective, we have 189,524 active cases
in the United States at this time. None the less, I'm not
liking where this is seemingly headed.

While I'm not particularly bothered by the mortality rate,
it's the numbers of cases that is troubling. Even with a
low mortality rate, if you have enough cases, more people
than we want to, are going to secumb to the disease.

It is still good to remember what the general guidelines
are. In general terms, if you are younger and have no
other health problems, you don't have as much to worry
about. Try not to let this get to you. Your chances don't
improve in correlation to the amount of concern you have.

Eat right. Drink lots of fluids. Get adequate sleep.
Don't stress yourself right now. Follow the guidelines.
Just do what you know to be right.

If you're a Christian, remember the core values of your
faith.

I'd also like to mention that older aged people have been
termed high risk, but we don't know all the answers about
this disease. I've been hearing about people over ninety
and even 100 that were just honery enough to pull through.
Nothing says you can't. Don't die daily in your mind, by
giving in to fear.

This addresses the situation outside
Mainland China.

Growth is off the charts, so for right now it's time
to buckle up for the ride.

Let's Look at the Global Numbers

              EOD    Day's   Size of
Date        Cases    Grwth    Growth
03/20/20   194,148   30,824
03/21/20   225,932   31,784
03/22/20   257,820   31,888
03/23/20   297,172   39,352
03/24/20   341,530   41,462 
03/25/20   390,378   48,848    7,386
03/26/20   451,006   60,628   11,780
03/27/20   516,124   65,118    4,490
03/28/20   583,107   66,983    1,865
03/29/20   641,588   58,481   -8,502
03/30/20   704,051   62,463    3,982
03/31/20   880,000   78,000    5,000

There's no sugar coating it. These numbers are big
and likely to get bigger. Think of it as a statistic
and don't let it get to you personally.

Nations With Lots of Cases

One morning after the beginning of March I was talking
about a number of nations that might go over the 1,000
mark. I actually lowered my estimation a bit before
writing about it. (as I recall, hopefully accurate)
I believe I addressed it as a dozen to fiften nations,
in my hypothetical. I remember thinking 15-20, but
reducing my number for my comments here.

Lets look at today's reality.

At the end of the day on 03/31/2020, there are 47
nations with 1,000 cases or more. There are also six
nations that are on the verge of hitting that mark.

There are 13 nations with counts above 10,000, and
again, there's a few poised to join them.

There are 5 nations with counts above 50,000 excluding
Mainland China.

A Look at Resolved Cases

The last few mornings I've been talking to you about the
percentage of resolved cases. If you'll remember, I had
mentioned that the percentage of resolved cases had grown
on Sunday for the first time in 23 days.

Well, on the 31st, that did not continue. We slipped by
a fraction of a percent, still remaining in the top half
of the 25% range. The 31st was the 13th report we had
remained in the area from 25.649% to 25.933%. That doesn't
seem so special, but in a way it is. I pull down 3 or 4
reports a day and document them. Generally a percent doesn't
make it through more than one day. In fact, in the last few
weeks I've noticed a day when a whole percent was skipped as
the percentages of resolved cases dropped. Generally
the 28%, 27%, and 26% came and went in a matter of about
three reports, and I'm address a full percent.

Last night's last report, was the thirteenth report where
we remained between that 25.649% and 25.933%. So the
resolved cases are struggling to overcome the rapid
growth of new cases, to start cutting down the number
of active cases. It will take a while, but this is real.

220,713 declared cases have been resolved now. Yesterday
alone, 16,805 cases were resolved. The day before there
were 17,848 cases resolved.

My Outside China section declares that 99.57% of all
active cases are now outside China. The take away on
that is that we have a large body of data from outside
China, and it really doesn't matter what is going on
inside China now, other than them cooking up something
we'll see in another ten years.

Population Saturation

Here are the figures revealing how many people in each
population base represent one case.

Globally      :   12,151
Outside China :   12,203
The U. S. A.  :    1,853

Look at the population saturation in the U. S.
Not good.

New Feature: States and Counties¹⁹⁹

Here is a spreadsheet with the States and 199 Counties listed
alphabetically and by declining case numbers. access

Good morning...

All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK

...and WorldoMeters: Alternate Data Site

I have been downloading three to five reports per
day since 01/27. I have then worked up numbers that
should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.

In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global
numbers including China. You will find a separate
section addressing just the Outside China figures.
Then there is now also a section with just the
United States stats in there. There are also a lot
of special stats broken out for you to browse. The
history of 203 nations and their numbers from day one
of their reporting.

You're welcome to it.

COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

Sorry, the XLS version is not available for dibursement at this time.a

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you and good night.

[Varsity Flight]

Update are the notes are clear, for now, until they attempt to pass them off again in the stock market. No one’s yet thinking about the real update, buying contaminated Cov real estate

[cba123]

Thanks.

This seems right. We will see.

Awesome job on this. For real.

[Wuli]

Nice work, but I’d not be overly worried. I’d never expect any decline to be a smooth and steady one. There will be blips, even on the way down.

[9YearLurker]

She’s trolling us:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-outbreak-isnt-stopping-ruth-bader-ginsburgs-workouts/

[Tallguy]

Doughty... nice work. Can you add me to your ‘Ping List’?

[Chickensoup]

add me please DoughtyOne.

[Ann Archy]

Anyone who writes a letter to her right after her LYING Benghazi "testimony", and says he LOVES HER EVEN MORE is SUSPECT!

Plus he CRIED about one of his speeches he wrote to her!!He might as well drink her bathwater!!

Oh, and his wife that also works at NIH gave Hilliary $1000.00!!!

Please tell me WHY I shouldn't be biased??

[chris37]

I’m not. It’s just obvious, so I pointed it out.

People see what they want to see.

[Ann Archy]

LOL!! If it were so obvious, why did you have to point it out??

[chris37]

Cuz I’m like dat.

He’s not saying what you want him to say, so you find reasons to discount him. Attack the messenger if you don’t like the message. You know how it works.

[bitt]

p

[sodpoodle]

Had eye surgery this a.m.

Also hard of hearing;( All the medical staff were wearing masks......it was really tough to lip read !!!!!!

[gogeo]

Obviously more cases isn’t good. But I believe we don’t have more cases (comparatively speaking) I think we’re doing a better job of identifying cases than anywhere else.

[Sequoyah101]

Ping

[stylin19a]

thanks...and thanks for the ping

with johns hopkins chart you can get to the state county level. It will only list the counties that have identified cases.

In the map: Johns Hopkins Virus Map"
- select the little circle with 4 arrows under "Confirmed Cases by Country/Region/Sovereignty". A list of countries is returned.
- select US then select Admin1 at the bottom of the list. A list of Confirmed Cases by Province/State/Dependency is returned.
- select the state you want. then sele Admin2 at bottom of list. A list of Confirmed Cases by US County of the state is returned.

Right now JH is showing 190,740 confirmed US cases.
worldometers is showing 200,269 confirmed US cases.
wiki (CDC numbers ?)is showing 199,026 confirmed US cases. wiki also opens up to the state level, then selecting the state opens up to the county level. Wiki virus map

Can we expect a peak around Easter ?

[icclearly]

Your numbers are very informative!  Thank you.

BUT, Uh oh! Yesterday did not turn out as I expected. See the chart from yesterday below.  Big jump in new cases yesterday.  That moved our growth rate back up to 1.22.  That's a high number that has not been seen in the last four or five days. .  That's not good.

I did notice a couple of interesting points from looking around at our data and data from a few European countries

1. Our data does seem to spike every four or five days. Yesterday was the 5th day from the previous high.  Let's hope yesterday was a spike.  But, as this is written (12:45 PM CDT) we are sitting at new cases 16,506 on the day.  That does not bode well for the remainder of the day.  Maybe this is not a spike.  It is anybody's guess.

2. Spain, Germany, UK & Italy all reported flat to up days on new cases yesterday.

I am not tracking the death rate, but it appears to be moving up. At the moment it is at about 2.2% in our country.

The doc in his post projected a 15 day top. He also used a range of 15 to 25 in assessing other countries. Today is day 24 by the doc's count.  I'm beginning to not be so hopeful the top will materialize here.

Let's hope today turns out better than it looks at the moment.

IC CLEARLY

click on image to enlarge

Data from Worldometer

[DoughtyOne]

Well, real estate is taking a big hit.

Nobody can show homes, and even if they could folks are
holding their shekels close to the chest right now.

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you, and I appreciate the note of encouragement.

Naturally, when presenting this information, I wish I had
something more positive to point out.

My comments are meant to help folks who are down over this.

I’m generally a positive person regarding things like this.

I try to take appropriate safety precautions, but at the end
of the day I am not worried at all.

When God is ready, I’m ready.

[DoughtyOne]

Yes.

You’re added.

Thank you.