Posted on 04/01/2020 2:41:11 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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for these reports. Thanks.
COVID-19 Update
As of 03/31/2020 22:37 PDT (taken at 23:59)
To the report...
This information addresses solely the United States
A Trend vs A Base Camp
Several days ago I was feeling pretty good about a decrease
in the volume of growth I had observed, and was presenting
to you. It looked like we were seeing a trend toward
stagnation in growth. Sadly, the numbers have begun to grow
rapidly again.
The flatening of the growth of each previous day, appeared
to be developing a plateau. Instead it now looks more like
COVID-19 was simply building a base camp.
Lets go to the numbers.
EOD Day's Size of
Date Cases Grwth Gain
03/22 33,206 8,459
03/23 46,442 11,236
03/24 54,893 8,789
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
For the last two days, the number of new cases grew by
Notice that one week ago on 03/24, we had 54,893 cases.
So COVID-19 has left the base camp and is headed for the
summit.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
Let's take a moment to address where the U. S. stands
in relation to rest of the nations in the world.
Several days ago I touched on the fact that the U. S.
populace is roughly 4.252% of the global populace.
Despite this, we have 22.045% of the declared cases.
If we address just the current active cases of which
99.57% are now outside Mainland China, we have 27.89%
of them. Not real thrilled about these numbers.
Today our daily resolved case number came in at 2,629.
That's the highest we've seen, by 832 cases, and it's
going to go up more in the coming days.
This helps us a little bit to keep our active cases down.
At the end of the day 03/31/2020, we have 178,318 active
cases in the United States.
Fatalities in the United States
Per
Date Fatal Day
03/26/20 1,301
03/27/20 1,704 403
03/28/20 2,229 525
03/29/20 2,484 255
03/30/20 3,170 686
03/31/20 3,889 719
To keep them in perspective, we have 189,524 active cases
While I'm not particularly bothered by the mortality rate,
it's the numbers of cases that is troubling. Even with a
low mortality rate, if you have enough cases, more people
than we want to, are going to secumb to the disease.
It is still good to remember what the general guidelines
are. In general terms, if you are younger and have no
other health problems, you don't have as much to worry
about. Try not to let this get to you. Your chances don't
improve in correlation to the amount of concern you have.
Eat right. Drink lots of fluids. Get adequate sleep.
Don't stress yourself right now. Follow the guidelines.
Just do what you know to be right.
If you're a Christian, remember the core values of your
faith.
I'd also like to mention that older aged people have been
termed high risk, but we don't know all the answers about
this disease. I've been hearing about people over ninety
and even 100 that were just honery enough to pull through.
Nothing says you can't. Don't die daily in your mind, by
giving in to fear.
This addresses the situation outside
Mainland China.
Growth is off the charts, so for right now it's time
to buckle up for the ride.
Let's Look at the Global Numbers
EOD Day's Size of
Date Cases Grwth Growth
03/20/20 194,148 30,824
03/21/20 225,932 31,784
03/22/20 257,820 31,888
03/23/20 297,172 39,352
03/24/20 341,530 41,462
03/25/20 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26/20 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27/20 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28/20 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29/20 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30/20 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31/20 880,000 78,000 5,000
There's no sugar coating it. These numbers are big
Nations With Lots of Cases
One morning after the beginning of March I was talking
about a number of nations that might go over the 1,000
mark. I actually lowered my estimation a bit before
writing about it. (as I recall, hopefully accurate)
I believe I addressed it as a dozen to fiften nations,
in my hypothetical. I remember thinking 15-20, but
reducing my number for my comments here.
Lets look at today's reality.
At the end of the day on 03/31/2020, there are 47
nations with 1,000 cases or more. There are also six
nations that are on the verge of hitting that mark.
There are 13 nations with counts above 10,000, and
again, there's a few poised to join them.
There are 5 nations with counts above 50,000 excluding
Mainland China.
A Look at Resolved Cases
The last few mornings I've been talking to you about the
percentage of resolved cases. If you'll remember, I had
mentioned that the percentage of resolved cases had grown
on Sunday for the first time in 23 days.
Well, on the 31st, that did not continue. We slipped by
a fraction of a percent, still remaining in the top half
of the 25% range. The 31st was the 13th report we had
remained in the area from 25.649% to 25.933%. That doesn't
seem so special, but in a way it is. I pull down 3 or 4
reports a day and document them. Generally a percent doesn't
make it through more than one day. In fact, in the last few
weeks I've noticed a day when a whole percent was skipped as
the percentages of resolved cases dropped. Generally
the 28%, 27%, and 26% came and went in a matter of about
three reports, and I'm address a full percent.
Last night's last report, was the thirteenth report where
we remained between that 25.649% and 25.933%. So the
resolved cases are struggling to overcome the rapid
growth of new cases, to start cutting down the number
of active cases. It will take a while, but this is real.
220,713 declared cases have been resolved now. Yesterday
alone, 16,805 cases were resolved. The day before there
were 17,848 cases resolved.
My Outside China section declares that 99.57% of all
active cases are now outside China. The take away on
that is that we have a large body of data from outside
China, and it really doesn't matter what is going on
inside China now, other than them cooking up something
we'll see in another ten years.
Population Saturation
Here are the figures revealing how many people in each
population base represent one case.
Globally : 12,151 Outside China : 12,203 The U. S. A. : 1,853Look at the population saturation in the U. S.
New Feature: States and Counties199
Here is a spreadsheet with the States and 199 Counties listed
alphabetically and by declining case numbers. access
Good morning...
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
...and WorldoMeters: Alternate Data Site
I have been downloading three to five reports per
day since 01/27. I have then worked up numbers that
should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global
numbers including China. You will find a separate
section addressing just the Outside China figures.
Then there is now also a section with just the
United States stats in there. There are also a lot
of special stats broken out for you to browse. The
history of 203 nations and their numbers from day one
of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
Sorry, the XLS version is not available for dibursement at this time.a
p i n g
Fauci, Hilliary's bathwater drinker, seems to be all in in this FLU COUP!
Right, it was Fauci who murdered over 900 Americans yesterday.
I’ve only caught a few soundbites from him.
Seems conflicted.
I think I’m hearing some private sector people calling his
name. (figuratively)
Growth of cases by itself without correlating the growth of testing does not really tell us much about a curve. As testing grows as it has been globally and in the US, necessarily the number of cases will increase. This is a study in a vacuum unless rate of growth can be correlated to the growth of number of tests administered.
Thanks. We’ve been talking about that for weeks.
Numbers still matter.
with regard to the lower right figure of the global numbers table— should that be 5000, or perhaps something closer to 16000? Sorry if not understanding.
Also it would be nice to see some additional way to track NY as a subset of USA, at least while NY appears to account for so much of the USA patients. Just a thought.
Please look down near the bottom of the report, just before I say
“Good Morning”. You see a new feature notice. It’s in red.
There’s a link there (access), and that report addresses
both states and counties.
Click on that link, and you’ll be able to see the top 199
counties in the United States.
That should help you zero in on high number entities. You
can do the rest.
Agreed. It’s difficult to find data related solely to New York and specifically New York City. I found this site helpful https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Please note the disclaimer that due to delays in reporting recent data may be incomplete.
I’ll have to work on that.
There was a sound reason for it being what it is, except for
that 5,000 figure at the bottom.
It was a place-holder and was to be updated. I missed it on
the final draft.
I’ll have it repaired tomorrow.
The mortality rate unfortunately has increased to over 2.1%; it had been below 1.3% at one point, over a week ago.
Of course the numbers of cases are rising...they’re generally the only ones that are being tested based on symptoms.
Aha, OK thanks.
I was just skimming through the tables and doing some checking, just to try to confirm my understanding of what is being presented.
Administering the cocktail that the President mentioned should dampen the hospitalized and untimately the death rates.
When they talk about people with mild cases that never show
up at the hospital, they are now assessing things at a
0.60% mortality rate.
I don’t explain ‘em. I’m just mentioning the last thing
I heard on it.
I think so too.
What was intended there, was to take the growth the day before,
and quantify the plus/minus on the following day.
If the growth yesterday was 10,000, and the growth today was
13,000, 3,000 would be the number addressed.
For five days that 3,000 figure had been dropping, and in fact
went negative for a day.
I’m tired now, so I’m not going to assess it more right now.
As long as you understand the goal, that’s the important
thing to me at this point.
He wanted to shut the President up...but he also told the doctors that used it that they were ignorant, too. That's when the guy lost me.
His goal....a real expensive "cure"...under his guidance.
Yeoman’s work, DoughtyOne, Yeoman’s work! Thanks for putting it together and for posting.
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