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Flu rates drop like rocks, vivid rises, any epidimeological connection?

Posted on 03/31/2020 9:20:40 PM PDT by Manly Warrior

So, I perused CDC site devoted to 2019-2020 flu rates, they are dropping like rocks, along with mortality rates. Meanwhile, the same population groups are suffering badly from covid19; is there any connection? I mean, are not the same folks who would suffer worst and possibly die from complications from the flu strains, suffer worst from covid19 as well? Is there an equilibrium if these two hazards after it is all over and done?

22k Americans died from flu this season so far, a bad season. When does the shift from flu to covid19 equate to a comparative total or are we really going to see 200k+ people dead from covid19? Hmmm.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: covid19; flu
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To: BenLurkin

Many were standing on the edge of a cliff and C-19 gave them a shove. Many people live years with medical problems that they eventually die from but C-19 kills them.

I have 2 cousins and several friends who are going through chemo and have a good prognosis but C-19 could easily kill them right now.


41 posted on 03/31/2020 10:58:09 PM PDT by tiki
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To: tiki

I should have been more precise. Was not asking about the Wuhan Flu. Was inquiring regarding the seasonal flu.


42 posted on 03/31/2020 10:59:05 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: PGR88

He explores the possible reasons why Italy has a death rate for COVID-19 that is 10X that of Germany.


Among them should be:
1) Most of Germany’s infected were actually young and athletic skiers.
2) Germany’s next round of infected are only just advancing enough to be dying.
3) Germany had weeks to get geared up to deal with the outbreak. Italy was on Feb 22nd about where Germany was on March 11th.

Note the week where people were pointing out that none of the Nordic countries or Germany had any fatalities...which has since drastically changed. They also at that time had only two recoveries between the several nations.

Germany had fewer than 30k cases on 3/23, but is now crossing 72k.


43 posted on 03/31/2020 11:03:13 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: cherry

H1N1 is an influenza. If the patient presents with classic flu symptoms, tests negative for Influenza A or B, then it is reasonable to toss them into the other novel or unidentified influenza category.


44 posted on 03/31/2020 11:05:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Rush is a national treasure.)
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To: DoodleBob

Well, not as much as you might think considering the age of some of us.


45 posted on 03/31/2020 11:05:51 PM PDT by higgmeister ( In the Shadow of The Big Chicken)
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To: Salamander

Since there is no treatment for mild CoV cases, lots of patients are sent home to self-isolate for 14 days without testing. They are either suspected or presumptive CoV positive. There is a fine distinction between the two. Presumptive gets counted as COVID-19, suspected does not.


46 posted on 03/31/2020 11:12:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Rush is a national treasure.)
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To: cherry

[also anecdotally, I had a patient, a youngish woman, who came in either January or early February....she could not get off of oxygen for the longest time....tested negative for flu...had a harsh cough....I just wonder now if she actually had covid]


Was she just getting supplemental oxygen, or was she hooked up to a ventilator?


47 posted on 03/31/2020 11:13:35 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: BluegrassCardinal
Re: “SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus. Nobody had immunity to it. For that reason it’s able to spread at a time that other respiratory viruses begin to wane.”

I disagree on several points.

There are at least 7 identified coronaviruses that infect humans. Four of them cause the common cold. I think it is premature to claim that no one has immunity to COVID-19.

In Washington state, only one person under age 40 has died from COVID-19. Less than 10% of COVID-19 infections in Washington state have been documented in people under age 40. When our Governor closed schools and universities a couple weeks ago, not even one student had been diagnosed with COVID-19.

COVID-19 emerged in Washington state on 21 January - the first case in the USA. The “Positive Infection Rate” in Washington state has held steady between 6.4% and 7.5% for high risk individuals for almost three weeks. Last week, hospitalization for COVID-19 in Washington state dropped 20%.

I think it is quite possible that COVID-19 has peaked in Washington state, and it will drift down to zero in concert with seasonal influenza at some point in May.

48 posted on 03/31/2020 11:22:09 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: NautiNurse

See the USC health system study published today in my post #13 above. They tested everyone coming to urgent care and ER during day shifts in early March, 2020 for influenza, a respiratory illness and Sars2. Then compared several years stats of influenza cases. They discovered a significant drop in flu cases corresponding to the spread of this novel corona virus. Very short article with fascinating graphs.


49 posted on 03/31/2020 11:31:43 PM PDT by The Westerner (Protect the most vulnerable: get the government out of medicine, education and forests!)
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To: Manly Warrior

Here’s the connection. People are being more careful to avoid infection, and the flu is less contagious than SARS-COV-2. There’s no grand, all-encompassing conspiracy, and the Martians aren’t landing here...yet.


50 posted on 03/31/2020 11:32:20 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: Manly Warrior

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology

United States

Cases 189,445

Deaths 4,075

Recoveries 7,082


51 posted on 03/31/2020 11:34:17 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: zeestephen

The common cold versions are in the alphacoronavirus genus. COVID-19 and SARS-Cov are betacoronaviruses. Someone would have had to have SARS or had a vaccine against that to already be immune to this one.

Almost a third of the cases in Missouri are under age 40.


52 posted on 03/31/2020 11:44:41 PM PDT by Styria
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To: lepton

Germans are germaphobes and might have slowed transmission from that too.


53 posted on 03/31/2020 11:51:26 PM PDT by Styria
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To: Manly Warrior

my medical test sources say flu season is basically over, hardly any positive tests.

and hardly any people with flu have covid and visa-versa.

they are mostly not conflating at this point in covid’s initial spread.


54 posted on 04/01/2020 12:19:36 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: Persevero

According to the pointy-headed intellectuals in Cambridge, Mass, that’s exactly what needs to happen. And will happen, if they have anything to do with it.


55 posted on 04/01/2020 12:20:56 AM PDT by one guy in new jersey
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To: familyop

we don’t know R0 for covid yet.

and according to my sources the flu and covid are not conflating in infected patients.


56 posted on 04/01/2020 12:24:59 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: dadfly

Yes, not conflating. The symptoms are very different. COVID-19 is much more like a deadly super cold than the flu. On contagiousness, the flu is not spreading much now, while SARS-COV-2 is.

There were reasons for the levels of fear expressed by medical workers in countries hit before, but our leaders, early on, were afraid of causing panic by being blunt and open about all of it. Let’s give it our best, and show that we can be as courageous as our leaders and even more enduring. We’ll see more smiling faces sooner that way and get back to work and play.

Let’s make homemade masks the most popular style and smile at our neighbors with our eyes and cheerful tones of voice. Let’s show the world what we’re made of. :)


57 posted on 04/01/2020 12:34:57 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: dadfly

My best guess from watching it over the past couple of months, is that the seemingly slow spread is due to the extra cautions either during major outbreaks or cautions imposed earlier by governments. But whether or not, the spread is very persistent.


58 posted on 04/01/2020 12:39:44 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: familyop

the flu season is basically over, that’s why it’s not a factor now. it was a relatively mild season and i guess the vaccines worked this time.

but don’t kid yourself. common flu is highly contagious. it could very easily be more contagious then covid in the final analysis.


59 posted on 04/01/2020 12:40:06 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: familyop

and what i meant by conflation was that of people with respiratory infectious illness being tested (and there are a ton of different ones), people with covid are generally not testing positive for the flu and visa-versa. they seem to keep their “distance” from each other for some reason. why would be speculation.


60 posted on 04/01/2020 12:44:36 AM PDT by dadfly
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