Posted on 03/26/2020 10:14:19 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #27 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828191/posts?page=1
R0 is partly socially determined.
The key points are these:
1) tests are a lagging indicator of where the infection was a week or so ago in the population
2) it's not perfect, because in order to conserve test kids, they are presuming infection at many medical centers for people presenting with related symptoms
3) you might argue "but that OVERSTATES cases!" -- and it does, but ONLY in people already seeking medical attention, not in the great unwashed like those who were at Spring Break.
4) The key is whether enough people who are unknown carriers, took this seriously enough, in the last couple of weeks, for the therefore-lowered transmission, to have pulled down the cases that might be about to happen, enough that the residual infections do not _still_ overflow the ERs.
(no good single verb tense for THAT one!)
IF we knew that those seeking medical care, were (as it were) draining the resevoir of potentially uninfected, I'd agree with your assessment of the parabolic shaped curve.
That is, the size/shape of the parabola will be fixed for each different value of social distancing. A simple parabolic model assumes the % of population distancing is constant over time.
Finally -- China is announcing an upsurge in new cases, they're trying to blame on foreigners. Some have predicted several waves since each wave makes people scatter back to social isolation, lowering immediate morbidity / mortality but preventing herd immunity. And then there's the issue of antibody-dependent enhancement, which the Chicoms sure as hell aren't on any soapbox about.
It’s not just happening in Albany. You need to stick around and see what is happening.
Sorry cgbg posted that link.
EVERY hospital is a disease vector.
The virus is complete aerosol and infects everyone and everything in the same room with it.
MAYBE (pure conjecture, based solely on observation) it also is spread in the HVAC. It’s the rapid spread aboard ships that causes my suspicion on this.
WY
Testing Numbers
3/26/20
Tests completed at Wyoming Public Health Laboratory: 865
Tests completed at CDC lab: 1
Tests reported by commercial labs: 239
(Commercial labs are required to report positive test results to WDH; negative results are not reported consistently.)
Total reported positive cases: 53
For a map of cases and statistics, click here.
For healthcare provider information, click here.
For public health orders and guidance, click here.
Cases by County
Albany: 1
Big Horn
Campbell: 1
Carbon: 3
Converse
Crook
Fremont: 14
Goshen
Hot Springs
Johnson: 1
Laramie: 14
Lincoln
Natrona: 6
Niobrara
Park: 1
Platte
Sheridan: 4
Sublette
Sweetwater: 1
Teton: 7
Uinta
Washakie
Weston
https://health.wyo.gov/publichealth/infectious-disease-epidemiology-unit/disease/novel-coronavirus/
The nation is in the recovery phase as indicated by # new deaths which means we actually entered the recovery phase Monday before last. Ten days ago. Watch. The # new dead should not increase tomorrow. It’s an epidemic. Very predictable.
I’m not sure in New York City, yet. Hopefully, we’re laying waste to it in other places. Die, COVID, die!
Now, if NYC keeps increasing by a flat 5000 per day, we have reduced R0 to 1 (from what was apparently much more than the average of 2.3 to 3), but still needs to be reduced to avoid further stress on the hospitals (average ICU stay as long as 30 days, then you usually die).
I “played with the data”. Single digits are statistical noise.
I think we are at the end of the beginning.
Soon we’ll enter the beginning of the end.
Just ask Geezer, he’ll tell ya.
I agree on the ships—big wigs were obvious flu bros..
Time for some retirements or big time reduction in ranks.
DE
Total Cases 130
Statewide
Last update: a few seconds ago
New Castle County
86
Sussex County
27
Kent County
17
https://coronavirus.delaware.gov/
*****
DOVER, Del. (AP) — A 66-year-old man from southern Delaware is the state’s first coronavirus death, public health officials said Thursday.
Officials said the Sussex County man had underlying health conditions and died while hospitalized out of state.
https://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/Delaware-reports-first-coronavirus-death-15159134.php
“My second biggest concern with this virus is the likelihood we’ll end up with single payer.”
If CV spreads to half the population the government will absolutely take over health care.
When young and middle aged people who haven’t gone to the doctors for decades, and have no insurance start falling off and face hospital bills they will never pay it will be too much.
Hospitals, insurance, state and local, the infected with no/poor insurance.
If you don’t want Socialized Medicine, act responsible and prevent the spread of CV.
MI
County Cases Deaths
Allegan 1
Barry 1
Bay 4
Berrien 11
Calhoun 7
Cass 1
Charlevoix 4
Clare 1
Clinton 7
Detroit City 851 15
Eaton 4
Emmet 2
Genesee 63 1
Gladwin 2
Grand Traverse 3
Hillsdale 5
Ingham 22
Ionia 2
Iosco 1
Isabella 3
Jackson 17
Kalamazoo 10
Kalkaska 2
Kent 41 1
Lapeer 3
Leelanau 1
Lenawee 5
Livingston 21 1
Macomb 347 11
Manistee 1
Marquette 1
Mecosta 1 1
Midland 6
Missaukee 1
Monroe 21
Montcalm 3
Muskegon 3
Newaygo 1
Oakland 668 15
Oceana 1
Ogemaw 1
Otsego 7
Ottawa 18
Roscommon 1
Saginaw 10
Sanilac 1
Shiawassee 1
St. Clair 13
Tuscola 2 1
Van Buren 2
Washtenaw 92 3
Wayne 538 11
Wexford 1
Other 13
Out of State 7
Total 2,856 60
City of Detroit and Wayne County are reported separately.
For consistency with previous outbreak reporting methodology, the Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC) has been added as a separate jurisdiction under the “Other” category. This has resulted in the reclassification of some confirmed cases previously indicated among county case counts.
Commercial 713 30 744
Hospital 3296 1866 5261
Public Health 2541 557 3104
Grand Total 6550 2453 9109
Notes:
This is a new reporting system and additional laboratories will be included over time. Counts of specimens tested positive will not equal number of people with COVID-19. People may have more than one test or may have had their test from an out of state lab.
Total samples tested includes test that were negative, positive, and inconclusive.
Commercial labs only includes data from LabCorp.
Public health labs include the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Bureau of Laboratories.
Counts represent the total specimens tested, not total patients tested. A patient can have more than one specimen tested, therefore the number of specimens tested may be more than the number of patients tested.
Male 51%
Female 49%
Male 60%
Female 40%
Age %
0 to 19 years 1%
20 to 29 years 7%
30 to 39 years 12%
40 to 49 years 16%
50 to 59 years 19%
60 to 69 years 21%
70 to 79 years 15%
80+ years 8%
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163-520743—,00.html
I am quite confident that your grasp of pretty much anything exceeds that of your local officials.
**** Breaking ****
Based on best modelling, May 1st cases projected to be 6000-8000 cases per day in Ohio. NY is doubling every three days
IA
Confirmed Cases 179
Counties
Johnson - 49
Polk - 24
Linn - 12
Washington - 8
Allamakee - 7
Dallas - 7
Scott - 7
Dubuque - 6
Muscatine - 6
Black Hawk - 5
Cedar - 4
Poweshiek - 4
Tama - 4
Hancock - 3
Harrison - 3
Pottawattamie - 3
Benton - 2
Cerro Gordo - 2
Jasper - 2
Sioux - 2
Story - 2
Woodbury - 2
Adair - 1
Appanoose - 1
Buchanan - 1
Carroll - 1
Clayton - 1
Des Moines - 1
Fayette - 1
Henry - 1
Kossuth - 1
Mahaska - 1
Monona - 1
Page - 1
Wapello - 1
Warren - 1
Winneshiek - 1
Last update: a few seconds ago
Cases of the sniffles? LOL.
I really dont get people that cant see past the whatever percentage mortality rate
Health care workers are starting to go down
They werent adequately protected
Police are starting to go down.
They have to get protection in place before they can lift this shut down. They have to get the hospitals prepared.
The only reason this isnt far worse is because there has been a sort of a shut down.
We were on an exponential curve. Still are, really but now we are at the top in the recovery phase. # new deaths flat. So as far as “new cases” we entered Recovery phase ten days ago. As a nation.
OH
Columbiana County Reports First Death Related to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
LOCAL NEWS
MAR 26, 2020
Follows is a just-issued press release:
The Columbiana County Health District in coordination with the EastLiverpool City Health Department and Salem City Health District are saddened to report the first death of a Columbiana County Resident with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
*****
Coronavirus death toll climbs to 15 in Ohio, 867 cases confirmed statewide
By Chris Anderson | March 26, 2020 at 1:39 PM EDT - Updated March 26 at 2:08 PM
CLEVELAND, Ohio (WOIO) - The Ohio Department of Health says 15 people have died from COVID-19, as of Thursday afternoon.
https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/03/26/gov-dewine-discusses-newest-coronavirus-deaths-cases-ohio/
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