Posted on 03/25/2020 10:05:49 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #26 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3827832/posts
How long does the virus live on potato chips? How long did that bag sit in the warehouse before someone bought it at the store?
Answer to UK quiz:
The National Health System has _already_ run out of beds.
They won’t test you unless you are a patient, and the only way you get to be a patient is if somebody dies or is released.
So, the numbers to look for going forward is a death rate per positive cases that is very high, because the UK will be badly under-counting the positives, but the deaths will be counted reasonably well.
Many folks will die without receiving proper medical care, so before this is over you would expect the UK death rate to be very high compared to the US for example.
Worse, on the ground, many other UK folks will die from other conditions because they are not allowed in the hospital at all.
The UK is a very strong candidate for public dying on the street scenes going forward.
Chinatowns the world over are filthy. But, they make the real ones in China look like Beverly Hills. Made my first trip there in the 90s for some investment site evaluations. And guess what? Yeah, I got sick. LOL - sort of.
Anyway, if one is curious about sourcing a good leading indicator, I would suggest watching Italy CV mortality. They are now bouncing around what looks to be a plateau - 5 days off the high. It would take a series of huge daily increases to get their trajectory moving upward again. Rather, I think they are exhibiting a classic top before the line finally begins to trend down:
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.2 3/29/2020 1,508 19.7% 248 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.2 3/30/2020 1,711 13.5% 203 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.2 3/31/2020 1,899 11.0% 188 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.2 4/1/2020 2,131 12.2% 232 34 3/25/2020 7,503 10.0% 683 3.2 4/2/2020 2,345 10.0% 213 Gross differential 3.2 Population differential 5.5 Per capita differential 17.5 Growth rate 25 Days 35.94% 29.73% 34 Days 30.01% 25.64% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Well, Buster, I don’t think you ever lived here.
The social code is not to “bother” one another, or else you’d be overloaded with human contact after 15 minutes on the street. So we keep our social outreach in check.
Let the rules change a little bit and we are all too happy to show that we care. It’s all over the place. It’s a New York thing. Like an “OK to talk” sign went on. Of course we keep it to a minimum, and not just because of viruses. It’s still 1,000 times more than usual.
Well, he IS supposed to perform STUNTS . . .
Unfortunately, this one nearly put him in the same condition as Evel Knievel when he attempted to jump the Grand Canyon.
Good to know that this is happening, now.
When I was there, last year, elevators were packed...with people and dogs. Sometimes looooong lines and waits for them, too.
This is NORMAL for a virgin field epidemic which is airborne transmissible. Those NEVER hit in only one big wave and then vanish. There are always multiple waves of infection in any airborne-transmissible epidemic.
Even then virgin field airborne-transmissible epidemics never reach everyone or anything close to everyone. I'm not aware of even a majority of a given large population, outside the confines of a besieged city, ever coming down with any disease ever.
The Spanish Flu is instructive. 500 million of the 1400 million people in the world caught it (35.7%) over a period of about a year, in three big waves. About a third of all Americans did. IMO the Wuhan Virus seems to be at least as contagious as the Spanish Flu, and perhaps a bit more so. I'd put it at about 35% +/- 5% for the moment.
Reality is like that.
"The single point almost everyone is missing: the Infected rate is going to eventually be 100%. This is a novel virus. Not one person in the world has a natural immunity to this. No body, on earth, has faced this before this pandemic."
No, not everyone is disposable.
Only the elite aren’t. The rest of us are.
Until they figure out that there’s no food or services for them.
No Frito Pie, for them!
MEghan’s going to need mental health help the first time she has to curtsy to Kate.
“It’s all over the place.”
I’m sure it’s all over Facebook.
And I'm sure all those on the receiving end will greatly appreciate it.
Years after I was on Active Duty I went on a Mission trip to prisons in Salvador and Honduras to Baptize MS-13 members who had repented. You should see a Central American prison. Hideous. Someone threw a grenade in a cell for revenge while we were in one of them and all of a sudden “Bomb” and there were a half dozen casualties. The nearest doctor was 20 miles away. I got to play trauma triage for an afternoon.
Facebook is not the most caring medium in the world. I am getting sick of all people spouting off that do not know what we know on Free Republic.
No, I mean on the streets here. In person. Remember in person?
I’m not trying to insult New Yorkers, it’s the same here in Texas and people refer to this as the “friendly state.”
What I have read about Italy in the last few days is that the Lombardy region is improving (actual lower daily cases, lower daily deaths) because of their early lock-down, while the rest of Italy is still on the standard exponential curve.
Well, not going to THAT chain anytime soon if I can't find things in town!
NYC is full of people you’ll never see again.
Ever.
I wore PJ’s a time or two to run an errand.
I didn’t worry about what people thought.
I don’t know them, they don’t know me, and I’ll never see them again.
The desire for social contact is lost in a sea of people that big. From self defense mostly...
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