Chinatowns the world over are filthy. But, they make the real ones in China look like Beverly Hills. Made my first trip there in the 90s for some investment site evaluations. And guess what? Yeah, I got sick. LOL - sort of.
Anyway, if one is curious about sourcing a good leading indicator, I would suggest watching Italy CV mortality. They are now bouncing around what looks to be a plateau - 5 days off the high. It would take a series of huge daily increases to get their trajectory moving upward again. Rather, I think they are exhibiting a classic top before the line finally begins to trend down:
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.2 3/29/2020 1,508 19.7% 248 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.2 3/30/2020 1,711 13.5% 203 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.2 3/31/2020 1,899 11.0% 188 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.2 4/1/2020 2,131 12.2% 232 34 3/25/2020 7,503 10.0% 683 3.2 4/2/2020 2,345 10.0% 213 Gross differential 3.2 Population differential 5.5 Per capita differential 17.5 Growth rate 25 Days 35.94% 29.73% 34 Days 30.01% 25.64% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Years after I was on Active Duty I went on a Mission trip to prisons in Salvador and Honduras to Baptize MS-13 members who had repented. You should see a Central American prison. Hideous. Someone threw a grenade in a cell for revenge while we were in one of them and all of a sudden “Bomb” and there were a half dozen casualties. The nearest doctor was 20 miles away. I got to play trauma triage for an afternoon.
What I have read about Italy in the last few days is that the Lombardy region is improving (actual lower daily cases, lower daily deaths) because of their early lock-down, while the rest of Italy is still on the standard exponential curve.