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The only valid statistical reference point is actual mortality. It's why Dr Birx - echoing our own wastoute by a full week - brought it up during a recent conference. "Cases", admissions, all the rest, are really just noise for a number of different reasons. One, they might only be measuring increased 'results' not disease incidence; two, because there's no actual legal mandate to maintain accurate records, unlike death certificates. That means the data points can literally be all over the place. It also suggests they can be manipulated & amplified by those with agendas, either media attention or politically motivated.

Italy is approximately 8 days ahead of the USA. Infection to resolution is 10-14 days. So, any true peak in mortality simply indicates the primary wave of infection occurred two weeks previous. So, if you really want to have an excellent bird's eye view that is 98+-% accurate, and is only subject to modeling assumptions going forward, then watch Italy, US and NY.

On that note, look how NY has distorted total US deaths due to their extreme growth curve over the last week. Since NY is a lagging indicator, this is demonstrating - to a very fine level of granularity - how compressed CV is in dense urban regions, not an indicator of potential US trends:

		USA	NY	
Day	Date	Cum Total	Cum Total	NY %
				
1	2/29/2020	1		
2	3/1/2020	2		
3	3/2/2020	6		
4	3/3/2020	9		
5	3/4/2020	12		
6	3/5/2020	14		
7	3/6/2020	18		
8	3/7/2020	19		
9	3/8/2020	22		
10	3/9/2020	26		
11	3/10/2020	31		
12	3/11/2020	38		
13	3/12/2020	42		
14	3/13/2020	49		
15	3/14/2020	56	2	3.6%
16	3/15/2020	62	3	4.8%
17	3/16/2020	75	7	9.3%
18	3/17/2020	96	12	12.5%
19	3/18/2020	122	16	13.1%
20	3/19/2020	174	38	21.8%
21	3/20/2020	229	46	20.1%
22	3/21/2020	296	58	19.6%
23	3/22/2020	405	76	18.8%
24	3/23/2020	516	157	30.4%
25	3/24/2020	670	271	40.4%