Posted on 03/24/2020 6:24:05 PM PDT by House Atreides
Epidemiologists deal with dry facts and figures, but the subject matter of those facts and figures can be very dramatic: illness and death, and how best to go about minimizing the former and delaying the latter....
...But during this pandemic epidemiologists have been constantly in the news, and anyone with an “epidemiologist” before or after his or her name is the new authority.... Governments set policy based on their recommendations and those policies are having extreme effects on our lives.
It is definitely true that epidemiologists have expertise... that most of us lack, and that we can learn things from them. They are good at describing something ex post facto, often with estimates derived from statistics that are far from exact. It often takes years to understand what has happened in an epidemic or pandemic. And that’s understandable....
..... One of the huge problems with COVID-19 is that so far it seems to have caused localized outbreaks that burden... hospital ICU resources. That in turn results in some people dying who might otherwise be saved but for the sudden influx.... and many of the strategies being brought to bear in the US are a result of trying to prevent such a calamity. But in order to know how much we need to do and what we can expect in the worst-case scenario, wouldn’t figures for excess deaths in Italy be helpful?
But so far I haven’t found anything written for the public discussing that issue. I realize that, since the disease only began a few months ago, we don’t have figures for total excess deaths. But shouldn’t we have some preliminary figures to compare to average figures per day or per week or per month during a bad flu season and during a good flu season in the localities involved?...”
(Excerpt) Read more at legalinsurrection.com ...
I want to know how many seniors, terrorized by media scare reports, refuse to get medical attention and die at home from some unrelated cause.
An expert on PBS Newshour tonight said the number of death this year from COVID-19 in the US alone will be around 360,000. 360,000! Now, I get how some people will twist statistics, but heaven help us (and Trump) is the number exceeds 100,000, let alone 360,000.
It's as if people who contract the illness are going to suffer the symptoms for their rest of their lives.
At some point, the number of recoveries is going to outnumber the number of active cases. THAT'S when we'll know that we've turned the corner.
360,000 deaths, so what? It’s just a bad flu season! A small price to pay for a month of economic growth. /s
Other PBS “experts” predicted that all snow would be gone from the Sierra Nevada in 10 years. 20 years ago.
I am just going off on what was reported elsewhere.
The healthcare system in most places is working within its limits. When the serious cases exceed the availability of ICU beds and respirators those stats will change.
The US will have the same per capita burden as Italy when we hit about 350-400k cases.
He is a real American. He will bring us out of this way ahead
This is not the death rate.....
This only takes up into account the total tested for the virus. Surely more than 69,927 people in Italy have the virus, they just had minor symptoms thus are not getting counted.
If it doesn’t get between 50 to 100K which is the flu rate of death. I strongly believe it will not will not be more then 20K in the US. The the media has been exaggerating
There is a nice analysis in the comments to that article of the results of the illness on the cruise ship that was affected early. However, treating those patients allowed for full, attentive medical care. The American system allows a LOT of resources to be brought to an individual. It is not designed for vast numbers of patients.
As far as ICU beds, there are about 100,000 ICU beds in the US. Average occupancy is about 66%. That leaves 30,000 open beds to start with, with geographical variences. About a tenth of the cases require hospitalization.
If all of those are ICU patients, we run out of beds when we hit about 330,000 cases, which we will in a week or so.
That's why I'm booking my room now through Expedia BEFORE I get the symptoms and so it will be ready when/if I get them.
Let me just drop this in:
There were 3,700 people on the Diamond Princess. Not only were all those people exposed to the disease, but the population was heavily weighted to retirees.
Ten cases had broken out on the ship and the Japanese authorities forced it into quarantine. By the time quarantine ended, the out-break on the ship lasted approximately one-month.
The ship itself was a perfect petri-dish for this type of infection. And an enclosed, dark, humid environment, crowded with people and, in general, maintained with poor hygienic practices.
The conditions were so favorable for the virus, it took 17 days after the quarantine ended for the surface contaminant virus to die. OTOH, in a normal, non-host environment, it takes anywhere from a few hours to just a few days for the virus to die.
In the end 705 of the 3,700 passengers and crew acquired COVID-19 infections.
Six people died of COVID-19. That was 0.16% of the population and 0.86% of the infected. That falls withing normal range for the passenger ship’s predominant age-cohort (elderly 60+) for Influenza Type A according to the Department of Health and Human Services that studied CFR rates in 2013 through a 150-paper Meta Analysis.
“...If all of those are ICU patients, we run out of beds when we hit about 330,000 cases, which we will in a week or so.”
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Hey, I’ve got an idea...how about treating patients with the so far VERY EFFECTIVE 6-day Hydroxychloroquine - Azithromycin combination drug treatment... BEFORE THEY GET SO SICK THEY REQUIRE MOVEMENT TO THE ICU.
These are the same people with global warming alarmist mentality. We’re all gonna die!
You are correct, the death rate is much, much lower.
I would liken this virus to the FIRES that destroyed Yellowstone years ago. We haven’t had a good epidemic that gradually harvested weak citizens who were old, lived a full life and ready to go. Somehow we have an idea that it is not NATURAL to die. And so when a REAL virus comes, and shakes and challenges our immune systemes, people have been living in a bubble and fall sick. We need to EAT more dirt, pick food up off the floor and eat things that will constanstly make strong our immune system. It’s about ARMING the HERD with antibodies that can take on disease and sickness, not hiding and avoiding the reality. It’s a sick world. Get used to it, go back to fishing, playing ball and work...travel, and you will DIE when the Good Lord says so.
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