Posted on 03/24/2020 11:22:45 AM PDT by rb22982
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated perhaps as much as half the population according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys antibody testing to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now, she said.
The modelling by Oxfords Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
Again, read the article or excerpt. It means the vast majority of people that get it, have no or mild symptoms and aren’t being tested for it.
The South Korean data put the lie to your claims. You are passing around horsehockey utter unfounded dangerous horsehockey.
Actually, the SK data proves it, as does Japan - it’s why there hasn’t been another big outbreak there.
This. We are making decisions with extremely biased facts; this is likely much more contagious than we have been told, but with a much lower mortality rate.
You’re a good liar. You just can’t figure.
Bingo
I don’t think you understand how things spread with an R0 of 2.3-3.0+. It doesn’t just disappear no matter how much you track it, especially with so many assymptomatic carriers, especially if you are letting other people in the country.
Absolutely. Which would be why the Deep State fought Trumo’s promotion of the drug cocktail so vigorously. Notably, however well Trump and Tony may be getting along, Trump has had the FDA approve doctors using this drug for treating patients before the studies Tony said were required have had a chance to be completed.
The town that had the first recorded infection in Italy tested its entire population and found that only 3% were infected. About half of them were asymptomatic. This Oxford study is BS.
That doesn’t mean they haven’t already had it or it was such a mild case it didn’t register enough with assympomatic (same reason lots of people had to have multiple tests done). It’s why you do an anti-body study. It’s how they figured out the swine flu was only .02% death rate rather than the 1-5% originally thought.
Those tests, and all the tests we are seeing results for are RT-PCR, not serological; i.e. they are only detecting those who have active virus in their system, not those who have been exposed and successfully fought it off. The article is dead on, this is what we should be doing right now to figure out the appropriate response. I also suspect the mystery, non-flu illness going around the Northeast since late January was in fact Covid.
There is no evidence that CV satured in SK, that the whole populace got it and only 9,000 were detected positive, etc.
And there is no evidence that that happened anywhere else either.
Either it spread almost instantly and saturated whole populations, or else it is spreading at a finite and measurable rate. You cannot have it both ways.
Again, as the authors of this study said, all you have to do is do an antibody study and you can find out really quickly. See who has already had it/immune. And if it’s not saturated in SK, it will come back with so many people assymptomatic.
little or no sickness? So whats all the hub-bub about?
For this to be true, and we should all hope that it is, the infection rate should be slowing down in the U.K. It has slowed at least for a few days. That’s not enough time for me but it is a good sign.
Worth watching.
would like to FB this
needs paid sub to see whole article
It could be a gen or two off, but yes in the next week or two it should be slowing down. The Imperial College model had us at Gen 10. This one says Gen 19-20.
Yep. Concentrate on Londaon, other places with international traffic and high density.
Supposedly NYC has a 1:1000 infection rate. Not sure where Birx got that estimate, but it's something she tossed out this afternoon. Big difference between 1:1000 and 1:2
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