As far as I know there have been ZERO predictions of overrun hospitals by 23 March. You cannot look at the current case load and learn anything. You have to look at the number of new infections occurring daily. Even more importantly you need to look at the number of deaths in the most recent day.
What you will see is that both numbers are growing exponentially. That may change but it hasn’t yet. For example the number of new infections is about 10 times what it was a week ago. The number of daily deaths YESTERDAY is about 6 times what it was a week ago.
Wait another week. We could easily have 100 times the infections we had a week ago and people dying over 30 time more frequently than they were a week ago. Wait two weeks and either things change or we are going to be counting hospital beds to see if there any that are vacant.
That’s what the data tells us. It’s not really bad yet. But there is a freight train headed our way.
Numbers will continue to rise as more are tested. There are probably millions out there carrying it but are asymptomatic. Death numbers will increase, but as the positive tests continue, the overall death rate will decrease and probably be closer to season flu.
You raise fair points, but I think you are being sucked into the CW. There are some fairly glaring weaknesses to your arguments:
1) We don’t know if Covid19 is “starting to spread” or IF IT STARTED SPREADING WEEKS AGO. As I noted in another post, my wife and I, and at least a couple dozen people we know personally or who are teachers from local schools here in Maryland, had the exact same SYMPTOMS as the virus 8 WEEKS AGO (dry cough, shortness of breath, mild and recurring fever). My wife and I, and the other who went to see docs, tested negative for the flu. We were told it “might” be bronchitis. Covid19 wasn’t even on the radar. The ONLY reason the numbers of infected cases are going up is b/c we just started mass testing in the last week.
2) Yes, there were “experts” who were saying that our hospitals would be overrun by today. That’s what all the screaming is about re: masks/PPE. But as you can see by multiple posts from around the country, there are no ERs anywhere that are being overrun.
3) Question: Why do we have to wait another week? Viruses/pathogens don’t wait to all come forward at the same time. I don’t gamble, but if I did, I would gladly bet a large sum with you that nothing will significantly change by next week.
4) Deaths: Another unknown variable is: Were the 400 plus deaths in the US that are currently tagged as “Covid19 deaths” actually caused by Covid19? Understand that hundreds of thousands of people get pneumonia every year in the USA, and a decent chunk die of it. Currently, if someone goes to the ER and has Pneumonia and tests POSITIVE for Covid19, they are listed as having died of Covid19. If they test negative, they died of Pneumonia. Doctor friends of mine think the number of deaths is being exaggerated.