You raise fair points, but I think you are being sucked into the CW. There are some fairly glaring weaknesses to your arguments:
1) We don’t know if Covid19 is “starting to spread” or IF IT STARTED SPREADING WEEKS AGO. As I noted in another post, my wife and I, and at least a couple dozen people we know personally or who are teachers from local schools here in Maryland, had the exact same SYMPTOMS as the virus 8 WEEKS AGO (dry cough, shortness of breath, mild and recurring fever). My wife and I, and the other who went to see docs, tested negative for the flu. We were told it “might” be bronchitis. Covid19 wasn’t even on the radar. The ONLY reason the numbers of infected cases are going up is b/c we just started mass testing in the last week.
2) Yes, there were “experts” who were saying that our hospitals would be overrun by today. That’s what all the screaming is about re: masks/PPE. But as you can see by multiple posts from around the country, there are no ERs anywhere that are being overrun.
3) Question: Why do we have to wait another week? Viruses/pathogens don’t wait to all come forward at the same time. I don’t gamble, but if I did, I would gladly bet a large sum with you that nothing will significantly change by next week.
4) Deaths: Another unknown variable is: Were the 400 plus deaths in the US that are currently tagged as “Covid19 deaths” actually caused by Covid19? Understand that hundreds of thousands of people get pneumonia every year in the USA, and a decent chunk die of it. Currently, if someone goes to the ER and has Pneumonia and tests POSITIVE for Covid19, they are listed as having died of Covid19. If they test negative, they died of Pneumonia. Doctor friends of mine think the number of deaths is being exaggerated.
You certainly raise some good points. But I have to comment on a couple of them:
1. Things won’t be worse a week from now. Someone is just dead wrong on that one but in 7 days we will know if that is you or me.
2. This was a pretty bad flu season. My daughter, wife and myself came down with the 28 Day Flu (my name). You cough, your nose runs, you’re tired but no fever. Very unlikely to be the CV in our case. I was lab tested and was told I had the common cold. I guess.
In any case I hope you optimists turn out to be right. It will be a pleasure to swallow my pride if that happens.