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The Great China Plague of 2020 (daily thread #23)

Posted on 03/21/2020 9:34:18 AM PDT by Mariner

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826523/posts?page=1


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: 23thread; covid19; cvlivethread
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To: Mariner

N-95s great price but you have to act now

https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/us-municipal-surplus-safe-life-n95-respirator-surgical-masks-25-pack-new?a=2228538


41 posted on 03/21/2020 10:18:06 AM PDT by Badboo (Why it is important)
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To: BusterDog
I like the changing thread title.

I don't, if only because a constantly mutating title makes searching harder. Interested readers should be able to use the site's search function pretty quickly, without having to wade needlessly through the index.

42 posted on 03/21/2020 10:21:40 AM PDT by Lonely Bull
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To: Mariner

I have a question. Lotsa people are ordering takeout or using drive thrus...even taking it to nursing homes for their elders (some in our family) Doesn’t anyone question the safety of that...from packaging, to the food itself, ie salads, bakery, etc.)?


43 posted on 03/21/2020 10:21:46 AM PDT by goodnesswins (Trump is as good a dictator as he is a racist.....)
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To: Mariner

Should have added /s


44 posted on 03/21/2020 10:23:34 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: cgbg

Italy numbers up for today:

Total Cases: 53,578

New Cases: 6,557

Total Deaths: 4,825

New Deaths: 793


Population of Italy: 62.1M

Percent confirmed infections: 0.1%

Needed to reach herd immunity: 60%


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


45 posted on 03/21/2020 10:25:11 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: cgbg
FairGrounds racetrack, NOLA.

It's Louisiana Derby Day.


46 posted on 03/21/2020 10:27:23 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (CNN's Dana B: "Show of hands: Coverage for undocumented immigrants?" ***all Democrat hands raised***)
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Half of All Coronavirus Cases in New York Are People Under 50 Years Old: Cuomo

https://www.thedailybeast.com/half-of-all-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-people-under-50-years-old-gov-cuomo-says


47 posted on 03/21/2020 10:28:51 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
Some analysis and discussion...

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for CLOSED CASES (based on official published numbers) for various locations are listed below:

China - 4.3% (obviously bogus)
Italy - 44.0% (Overwhelmed)
Spain - 64.2% (Overwhelmed??)
United States - 65.7% (Low sample size)
Germany - 26.4% (Low sample size)
Iran - 16.9%
France - 22.1%
S. Korea - 3.8%
Switzerland - 81%
UK - 73.5%

For those who are comparing this to the published mortality rates, understand that the Mortality Rate and the Case Fatality Rate are not the same thing, even though their names might give the impression that they are. The numbers I've posted are calculated as deaths/closed cases, where a closed case is one where the patient either died or recovered. It does not include those who are still sick or who have the disease and remain undiagnosed. Thus, it answers a different question than statistics (like the mortality rate) that include those people. It answers the question If I am diagnosed with this disease, how likely am I to die from it?

CFR is also frequently calculated over a period of time, which is appropriate for diseases such as cancer. For example, it could be calculated to answer the question If I am diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, how likely am I to die within the next year?

So it is perfectly legitimate to calculate the statistic as I have. You just have to know what cases are included in the denominator to begin to understand the question that the number is answering.

Case Fatality Rates are used as one indication among several of the severity of an illness. A disease with a low CFR that is widely prevalent or contagious will not kill many people. On the other hand, a highly contagious disease with a high CFR can end up killing many, many people. And of course, the worst case scenario is a disease that is both highly contagious and has a high CFR. It is arguable, at least (and in my personal opinion, already demonstrated) that this is that case with COVID-19, or Coronavirus.

There are many factors that can influence a CFR. Here's a list of just some of them:

I find it interesting to note that the only places with a CFR in the single digits (as I have calculated it) are in Asia. I don't know what that means. It could be simply bad data reporting. Or it could be a genetic factor.

48 posted on 03/21/2020 10:28:51 AM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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To: Mariner

VP says we are now in to Day 6 of the 15 Days to Slow the Spread.


49 posted on 03/21/2020 10:30:07 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Mariner

Our own little Wuhan...

Coronavirus Update: NYC’s Javits Center On List For COVID-19 Field Hospital

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-update-nycs-javits-center-to-become-massive-field-hospital/


50 posted on 03/21/2020 10:31:42 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: sockhead

Thank you for keeping us supplied with essentials items. I appreciate your work.


51 posted on 03/21/2020 10:32:53 AM PDT by Redcitizen (Nobody needs a 10 round magazine. You need a 30 round magazine.)
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To: Mariner

I’m still having to go to work... Traffic has been glorious... I need to start an under/over pool on how many speeding tickets I’ll receive during the duration of this shutdown/slowdown...


52 posted on 03/21/2020 10:32:57 AM PDT by dakine
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To: Pollard

This FEMA guy is a fellow masshole(I don’t live there anymore)


53 posted on 03/21/2020 10:33:05 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: dakine

If you live in a state with lots of cameras checking your speed, you could be getting many tickets. Take care.


54 posted on 03/21/2020 10:34:12 AM PDT by Freee-dame
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To: BenLurkin

Los Angeles county not testing the public. Says it too late for that.


55 posted on 03/21/2020 10:34:12 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: dakine

They might be giving a bit leniency right now


56 posted on 03/21/2020 10:34:30 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: Freee-dame

I moved away from one of those States


57 posted on 03/21/2020 10:35:08 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: Mariner

I don’t think I want “Great” and “China” to be used in the same phrase.


58 posted on 03/21/2020 10:35:25 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: sockhead
” Many customers admitting that their trip to Walmart is out of boredom. They aren't giving each other space. In fact, they are getting closer than usual, face to face.”

Oh stop. Nobody is getting closer in Walmart than usual.

59 posted on 03/21/2020 10:35:57 AM PDT by stuck_in_new_orleans
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To: goodnesswins

At some point we have to accept a certain amount of risk. I think for the most part the process is sanitary and safe considering disposable packaging is used.


60 posted on 03/21/2020 10:36:48 AM PDT by Redcitizen (Nobody needs a 10 round magazine. You need a 30 round magazine.)
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