(Vanity) ChiCom Flu Mortality Rates

Self and Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Site ^ | March 21, 2020 | ConservativeInPA

[ConservativeInPA]

I think it is fair to say that ChiCom Flu data have been gathered for a long enough time to do some statistical analysis. However, I cannot vouch for the validity of data, e.g., China's or Iran's data. But I will run the mortality percentages for some nations and you can draw conclusions on what ever you like. Tell me if the sky is still blue and white if you see that in the data. I am not drawing my own conclusions here. This is just something to think about.

1. China: 4.01%
2. Italy: 8.57%
3. Spain: 5.34%
4. Germany: 0.37%
5. Iran: 7.55%
6. USA: 1.38%
7. France: 3.60%
8. South Korea: 1.16%
9. Switzerland: 0.94%
10. UK: 4.43%

[exDemMom]

Until we can test everyone we don’t don’t the infection rate. So all sata is kinda of worthless... Other than people in hospital, deaths, and people out of hospital.

Unless you are assembling actuarial tables to determine likely causes of death for an individual, it is not appropriate to hypothesize about shadowy unconfirmed cases. The only appropriate measure is the number of deaths as a function of the number of known cases. The scientific concept of case fatality rate is based on the resolution of all known cases.

[CodeToad]

Actually, those numbers are bogus because we don’t know how many people were actually infected but didn’t seek medical attention and or were tested.

As with the flu or common cold, not everybody goes to a doctor when sick. Those mortality numbers are actually much lower if those unknown people are factored in.

[CodeToad]

“This saves lives and the economy.”

How about we simply stop shutting crap down??

[ConservativeInPA]

Those mortality numbers are actually much lower if those unknown people are factored in.

I have to agree. At least in the US we can depend on the body count. The infection count has to be much higher than tested.

[riri]

Great detective work by Jennifer Zeng the death toll in China could be VERY high:

"Another major carrier, China Telecommunications, lost 5.6 million users in Feb. I haven't found any figures for China Unicom”

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241025420562178050

[CodeToad]

Let’s use some numbers from the CDC.

March 2020 CDC Report: “...45 million flu illnesses, at least 300,000 hospitalizations, and up to 46,000 deaths from flu...”

That means about 150 times as many people catch the flu as are hospitalized.

Flu deaths are about 0.1% of those infected. If you used hospitalized patients, the death rate is 15%.

Lying with numbers. If the liberal media wants to scare people they would report the flu has a 15% death rate.

[CodeToad]

The flu infected count is in March 2020, by the CDC report, 45 million people. The tested number is only 43 thousand people, basically 1,000 to 1. Why? Because most doctors simply treat the symptoms and send people home, and many people never seek a doctor, they treat using over the counter meds.

I suspect, since this virus presents very much like the flu, the same is happening. I believe, as do many medical professionals, that millions have already been infected but only to levels of sickness seen with the flu.

[exDemMom]

I saw an analysis of the Chinese portion of the outbreak, where the authors of the article had determined a case fatality rate (a historical number which cannot usually be determined during an on-going outbreak). It was about 2.8%, I think.

In any case, I have been keeping track of the case numbers, deaths, and recoveries in a spreadsheet since Mar 12. I’m not breaking anything down by country, but just looking at total case load. What I see today is alarming. In the most recent 28 hour period, there have been 40964 new cases. In the previous 24 hour period, there were 23633 new cases. Thus, the number of new cases nearly doubled since yesterday. This is alarming. In addition, the death rate today is 4.15%, compared to when I first started my spreadsheet and it was 3.67%. The number of active cases and the lag time of 2-6 weeks between becoming ill and dying means that the death rate can still increase.

3/12/2020:
Total cases: 126135 / Active cases: 53289 / Deaths: 4630 / Recoveries: 68216 / Death rate: 3.67% / Recovery rate: 54.1%

The number of new cases from Mar 12-13 was 11,310.

3/21/2020
Total cases: 287,239 / Active cases: 185419 / Deaths: 11,921 / Recoveries: 89,899 / Death rate: 4.15% / Recovery rate: 31.3%

The increase in the number of new cases is very worrisome. It looks like the pandemic may have entered the exponential growth phase (not good).

[Hieronymus]

I’d agree on the data.

I also have been drawing consolation on the way that the SK deaths are low. It looks to me like they have weathered the storm.

Because of that this article is one of the scariest I’ve seen.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3826740/posts

[Black Agnes]

Yes, but it’s just a bad cold. /s

SK didn’t completely shut down their economy BUT they severely restricted the areas with infections and quarantined positives AND their contacts for 2 weeks. We have yet to do the latter to any great degree other than ‘pinky swear you won’t go to the clubs tonight’.

So the ‘it’s going away in SK’ posters are disingenous at best. There’s a REASON their case load increases decreased...and it isn’t because the weather warmed or the virus just ‘went away’...it’s because they DID something to CONTROL the spread!

[Hieronymus]

Do look over the link in 49. You’ve been very active in this area, and I’d like to know if, after looking over the article, you are still of the opinion that it is going away in SK.

[Black Agnes]

I’ve never been of the opinion that it’s going away in SK.

What they’ve done is flatten the curve. The virus is still there waiting for them to relax restrictions.

it will be thus until we get immunity or enough meds to make this a ‘take a cpl of these and call in sick for a cpl 4 or 5 days’ kind of bug like the flu and other respiratory diseases are now.

What governments are trying to avoid is a situation where they’re using one ventilator for 4 patients while running out of protective gear for medicos. And choosing between 60yr olds and 30yr olds.

[GOPJ]

Yeah, we can stop shutting crap down... but it’s better if we can do it with protection. If it’s the wild wild west the ‘shutdowns’ will come from citizens trying to save themselves rather than from government suggestions. AND I can assure you that will be worse.

Tell me, if YOU worked in a grocery store or wanted to shop in a grocery store - would you rather that people had been turned away at the door who had a temp - or that everyone had been let in?

Restaurants would be the same - temps taken before people are allowed in...

Those rejected by restaurants can used ‘takeout’... we need to strike a balance here. 14 day ‘shelter in place’ followed by sane rules that provide balance.

[GOPJ]

The White House is now checking temps of all people who want to enter. THEY know they can’t function with the their staffs all sitting at home.

They have come up with the solutions for themselves without realizing the rest of us need the same - the exact same -solution.

They do the balance - we need to do the same.

[GOPJ]

We don’t have to lose our companies if we limit the shutdowns to 14 ‘shelter in place’ country wide days... followed by a sane balance.

Lets say you work in a auto plant and you know everyone who enters the plant is ‘temp checked’ and anyone with a temp is NOT allowed to enter AND everyone who works within 6 feet of that person has to be rechecked... Would that be more comfortable than EVERYONE who works in the plant being laid off?

Life is a trade off... we measure risks everyday. If you want to be totally safe you would stay home even during normal times. Yes, our risks will be somewhat higher, but not impossibly higher.

[CodeToad]

Did you say this about the flu or common cold or SARS or any other infection??

No, you did not.

[Svartalfiar]

To me, the most important news is that those percentages have been decreasing steadily for days.

Not growing exponentially as some have predicted.

Given most viri, the death rate should spike, then come down as the recoveries will lag the deaths. So your first round of deaths occurs before the first round of recoveries have finished recovering. As more cases are infected, each round's deaths come quicker than the recoveries, but after a certain point those deaths don;t spike the death rate, while the recoveries begin to even out and bring the CFR down to close to an accurate number for the virus/bacteria. Of course, this doesn't usually take into account factors like immune/resistant folks, or those who get a mild case and never see the doc. Folks who are diagnosed with something else. Deaths that are attributed to other causes. Etc. In order to get an actual, close to accurate number, you have to do what SKorea did, and test a large subset of the population and show those non-doc visiting cases. Which, per the number above, was just over 1%. Course, this still leaves out factors like environmental, age, ethnicity, etc. But it gives the best general number for a large populace, including the hidden group that pushes the rate down.

[Svartalfiar]

The only reliable statistic, and that is subject to review and adjustment, is the number of deaths. You have a body.

Unless, of course, you're China. Then all you have is a pile of ash, from who knows how many bodies. Oh, and a pile over there, but they died from "pneumonia", not the Wuhan virus. Oh, and yea, there's city blocks full of welded-shut doors, but all those people died from starvation, not the virus. Yup.

[comebacknewt]

Interesting. I learned something from you today.

Thanks!

[Svartalfiar]

Last I heard S. Korea mortality rate is 0.6%.

SKorea, per Johns Hopkins, currently has 102 deaths, 1540 recoveries, and 8897 total cases (so 7255 still sick). This gives us a current CFR of 6.2%. Our best case scenario, if all 7255 sick people recover, will end up with a CFR of 1.15%, which is still twice the 0.6% number you have from ...where? Since recoveries lag deaths, the remaining cases should stay under the 6%, meaning that is accurate as a worst-case scenario number. Given that SKorea has done extensive testing of the general populace, we can assume that the hidden positives (immune, high-resistant, and mild cases that don't see a doctor and therefore aren't counted) are close to zero, so the death rate won't come down significantly by a hidden factor.

So assuming no new infections that spike a lot of deaths, or mass infections that all recover, our final range for SKorea is a CFR of around 1.15% to 6.2%.