Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: jdsteel
Last I heard S. Korea mortality rate is 0.6%.

SKorea, per Johns Hopkins, currently has 102 deaths, 1540 recoveries, and 8897 total cases (so 7255 still sick). This gives us a current CFR of 6.2%. Our best case scenario, if all 7255 sick people recover, will end up with a CFR of 1.15%, which is still twice the 0.6% number you have from ...where? Since recoveries lag deaths, the remaining cases should stay under the 6%, meaning that is accurate as a worst-case scenario number. Given that SKorea has done extensive testing of the general populace, we can assume that the hidden positives (immune, high-resistant, and mild cases that don't see a doctor and therefore aren't counted) are close to zero, so the death rate won't come down significantly by a hidden factor.

So assuming no new infections that spike a lot of deaths, or mass infections that all recover, our final range for SKorea is a CFR of around 1.15% to 6.2%.
60 posted on 03/21/2020 8:49:08 PM PDT by Svartalfiar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies ]


To: Svartalfiar

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-pandemic-south-korea-italy-deaths-covid-19/741673b9-ec7e-4c96-93dd-9b76d7e47ca6

Worldwide mortality rate is between 3-6%, and that is so high because of countries like Iran & China who have horrible healthcare systems and don’t much value human life on a regular basis.

South Korea is 0.6% to 0.7%.

Your numbers are off.


65 posted on 03/22/2020 7:47:21 AM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson