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To: comebacknewt
To me, the most important news is that those percentages have been decreasing steadily for days.

Not growing exponentially as some have predicted.


Given most viri, the death rate should spike, then come down as the recoveries will lag the deaths. So your first round of deaths occurs before the first round of recoveries have finished recovering. As more cases are infected, each round's deaths come quicker than the recoveries, but after a certain point those deaths don;t spike the death rate, while the recoveries begin to even out and bring the CFR down to close to an accurate number for the virus/bacteria. Of course, this doesn't usually take into account factors like immune/resistant folks, or those who get a mild case and never see the doc. Folks who are diagnosed with something else. Deaths that are attributed to other causes. Etc. In order to get an actual, close to accurate number, you have to do what SKorea did, and test a large subset of the population and show those non-doc visiting cases. Which, per the number above, was just over 1%. Course, this still leaves out factors like environmental, age, ethnicity, etc. But it gives the best general number for a large populace, including the hidden group that pushes the rate down.
57 posted on 03/21/2020 8:30:50 PM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: Svartalfiar

Interesting. I learned something from you today.

Thanks!


59 posted on 03/21/2020 8:48:53 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Trump trumps Hate)
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