The epidemic you (likely) were not made aware of: 80,000 Americans dead; deaths at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks...

peacebyjesus.witnesstoday.org ^ | daniel1212

[daniel1212]

Covid-19 cases as of 3-16-20 compared with 2018 death rates for the Flu.

While Covid-19 has hardly competed its run, nor has the flu, yet for comparison with the flu we have the morality rate for the flu per state in 2017-2018 and total deaths, which I have provided along side the latest Covid counts (3-16-20 ) to the table below. Additional stats on the 2019-2020 Flu season are provided below the the table.

During the 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html

And according to a later report by the CDC, for 2017-2018 season 80,000 people died of the flu in U.S, the highest death toll in 40 years. (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-care-news/articles/2018-09-27/cdc-80-000-people-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us)

Meanwhile, for Covid, the NYT (3-13) sounded this alarm: “Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html)

Below is a list of states per currently reported COVID-19 infections (by CNN, of 3-12-20) in comparison with population size (note that variations in reported cases are partly be due to how comprehensive testing can and has been done). Use an online calculator here, (see second row under “Percentage Calculator in Common Phrases,” and remove commas in population figure) for cases as a percent of population.

In any case, I pray that this crisis, both real and inflated, works to bring souls to realize the need for help from above, for repentance and mercy from God through faith in the risen Lord Jesus.

State	Population	COVID-19 cases	Percent of infections by capita	Deaths from COVID-19 (as of 3-12-20)	Deaths from Flu in 2017-2018 (last available data from CDC) Over 80k total. Deaths were at or above epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks
Washington (19 tied to one nursing home )	7,614,893	904		48	930
New York	19,453,561	967		10	4,749
California	39,512,223	557		7	6,917
Massachusetts	6,949,503	197			1,441
Colorado	5,758,736	160		1	568
Georgia	10,617,423	121		1	1,530
Florida	21,477,737	155		5	3.091
Illinois	12,671,821	105			2,564
New Jersey	8,882,190	178		2	1,465
Texas	28,995,881	85			3,516
Oregon	4,217,737	39			530
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	77			2,887
Iowa	3,155,070	23			697
Louisiana	4,648,794	136		3	824
Maryland	6,045,680	41			973
North Carolina	10,488,084	38			2,064
District of Columbia	705,749	22			N/A
Indiana	6,732,219	25			1,118
Nebraska	1,934,408	18			394
South Carolina	5,148,714	33		1	882
Wisconsin	5,822,434	47			1,075
Arizona	7,278,717	18			1,116
Virginia	8,535,519	49		1	1.283
Kentucky	4,467,673	21			969
South Dakota	884,659	10		1	245
Nevada	3,080,156	45		1	527
Tennessee	6,833,174	52			1,646
Minnesota	5,639,632	54			698
New Hampshire	1,359,711	17			265
Rhode Island	1,059,361	21			192
New Mexico	2,096,829	17			365
Ohio	11,689,100	50			2,395
Connecticut	3,565,287	30			757
Utah	3,205,958	39			353
Hawaii	1,415,872	7			542
Michigan	9,986,857	53			1,869
Oklahoma	3,956,971	10			809
Vermont	623,989	12			87
Arkansas	3,017,825	22			670
Delaware	973,764	8			167
Kansas	2,913,314	11			630
Mississippi	2,976,149	13			910
Missouri	6,137,428	6			1,477
North Dakota	762,062	1			152
Wyoming	578,759	3			128
Alabama	4,903,185	29			1,268
Idaho	1,792,065	5			235
West Virginia	1,787,147	0			539
Maine	1,344,212	17			312
Montana	1,068,778	7			152
Alaska	731,545	1			68
Total (3-16)		4,556		85	Over 80k. Above totals may be less.

• As for the 2019-2020 Flu season:

2019-2020 Season Cumulative Rate per 100,000 Population
Overall	61.6
0-4 years	88.9
5-17 years	22.6
18-49 years	32.8
50-64 years	80.8
65+ years	159.4

• Among 2,867 hospitalized adults with information on underlying medical conditions, 92.3% had at least one reported underlying medical condition, the most commonly reported were cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorder, obesity, and chronic lung disease. Among 472 hospitalized children with information on underlying medical conditions, 48.3% had at least one underlying medical condition; the most commonly reported was asthma. Among 477 hospitalized women of childbearing age (15-44 years) with information on pregnancy status, 27.5% were pregnant. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap)(Retrieved 3-17-20)

• Outpatient Illness: ILINet Visits to health care providers for influenza-like illness (ILI) decreased from 5.5% last week to 5.3% this week. All regions remain above their baselines.

• Hospitalizations: The overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 61.6 per 100,000.

• P&I Mortality: The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 7.1%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%.

• Pediatric Deaths: 8 [more] influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 144. - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm (Retrieved 3-17-20)

[daniel1212]

The question is, was the 2017-2018 flue epidemic under reported, or how do the differences to the Covid virus warrant that the continuing draconian measures?

How is the US comparable with Italy? See post here )

Aside from outliers (i.e. Wash. state deaths in certain nursing homes) is the death rate much higher or as high as for the 2017-18 flu season?

How dangerous is this for the general population?

Should the restrictions mainly be for seniors (like me)?

If the death rate is not high for most, is it actually necessary for a majority of people to be infected in order to preserve health in the long run via acquired immunity? (see article on FR here

How extensive might the long term effects of the economic shutdown and societal quarantines be, and can they actually end up costing most lives, and have detrimental effects to health?

Is it possible to have a rational discussion about these issues? Feel free to discuss and disagree, while having compassion on those who are suffering (I myself have had a mild headache and sniffles for a while, but good energy, thanks be to God.

[eyeamok]

Is it possible to have a rational discussion about these issues?

YES, but since none of your information can be used to attack Donald trump, it will be sequestered.

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

[crz]

Two trains of thought from a lot people I have talked to.

One, its political motivated.

Two, Its a manufactured virus by the Red Chinese which has the high officials spooked.

Those are the two main ones I hear.

[Parmy]

Ping

[crz]

No problem there.

I lean towards-it is political motivated by the DemocRATS. Did not hear anything, or much at all, about this until after the impeachment fail.

[gibsonguy]

It’s both.

[SoCal Pubbie]

FluBro!

[wastoute]

Flu season runs from October thru March 15. Wuhan Flu season is the next few weeks. You are saying cramming an additional flu season into the next two weeks is “nothing”. Since you have two weeks off you and have no fear you should volunteer in your local hospital. To help with the “nothing”.

[pepsionice]

The threat, if you go down all data from western countries (tossing Wuhan out)...then you look at who needs to go into hospitals and who likely dies...then you come to this messy fact that is difficult to grasp.

The people in the 6-percent group who ought to be in the hospitals are senior citizens over 65 in frail health, COPD sufferers, the pack-a-day smokers, asthma folks, anyone with a already weakened immune system (TB, HIV, diabetes, etc).

Kids don’t dies from this, and if you watch these interviews (either from Germany or Italy), Kids just describe like a light-form of flu.

So here is our problem, if the infection rate were to go up to 200,000 people in the US weekly developing this, and that 6-percent group needing real hospital care (nurses included), that means 12,000 folks who really need extra help. Toss in the fact that in seven days...another 12,000 folks will arrive, and seven days after that another 12,000 will arrive. The higher the infection rate, the more untrustworthy the care will be.

Another six-to-eight percent of us will have a rough time (a full 10 days of harsh flu-like symptoms) but if we are under 65 and without secondary health issues....we can do well at the house, with a little help from friends, neighbors, or family members. And the rest will just call it a light-bout of flu.

It’s not the end of the world for the bulk of us, but for a small limited number....the risk is significant.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

Well we have good vaccines for pneumonia, and the flu. We don't have any vaccine for corona.

[Ransomed]

I keep thinking what would have happened and how we would have reacted if corona virus would have went pandemic in 1950. Or whenever we couldn’t tell this from the actual flu virus. Would it have been looked at as simply a really bad late flu season or what.

Freegards

[Eagles6]

Good post!

[lurk]

Meanwhile, bathtubs continue to go on their silent rampage, killing and killing and killing, year after year.

[daniel1212]

Well we have good vaccines for pneumonia, and the flu

Actually flu vaccines have greatly varied in their effectiveness

. In the past 10 years, the most effective vaccine was in 2010-11 when it was 60% effective. The least effective was the vaccine from 2014-15 when it was estimated to be only 19% effective...The CDC says the vaccine can help reduce the severity of the flu once you get it. - https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-how-effective-is-the-flu-vaccine/507-877d77c9-d405-49ac-a6cf-875000114367

And as for the Coronavirus, tests on vaccine are ongoing as we speak, yet i think there are different strains.

[eartick]

Oh the evil hoaxes the media, frantic citizens and the government spin.

[crusty old prospector]

Ha ha. And ladders.

[daniel1212]

Two trains of thought from a lot people I have talked to. One, its political motivated. Two, Its a manufactured virus by the Red Chinese which has the high officials spooked. Those are the two main ones I hear.

I see no substantiation for that conspiracy hypothesis, although it makes sense that China would attack the economy in working to prevent the reelection of PDJT, while strengthening our dependence upon China who can recover more quickly.

[eartick]

Well we have good vaccines for pneumonia, and the flu. We don't have any vaccine for corona.

Comparatively speaking then, what would the death toll be if there was not a "good" vaccine for the flu? Just think how many in the US would have died above these numbers listed.

[daniel1212]

Flu season runs from October thru March 15. Wuhan Flu season is the next few weeks. You are saying cramming an additional flu season into the next two weeks is “nothing”. Since you have two weeks off you and have no fear you should volunteer in your local hospital. To help with the “nothing”.

Actually the 2018-2019 flu season began in November, peaked in mid-February and trailed off in April, while a hospital would not want me working there in my condition with some sniffles and slight headache (maybe fever). But I have often helped neighbors - which is how I got this.

[CodeToad]

The flu and COVID-19 started about the same time and each started in a single place, yet, the flu has spread and killed far more than the dramabug.