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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Imperial College London ^ | March 16, 2020 | Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sa

Posted on 03/16/2020 9:01:51 PM PDT by familyop

These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required.

(Excerpt) Read more at imperial.ac.uk ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19; virus; wuhan
Full List of Authors: Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.

On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London

1 posted on 03/16/2020 9:01:51 PM PDT by familyop
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To: familyop

This is the research that our President and his Team’s latest announcement was based on.


2 posted on 03/16/2020 9:03:57 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: Travis McGee; RoosterRedux; familyop

Uncommon ping.

Looks like the NY Times found out what was behind the announcement and new guidelines, but don’t look at the Times. Follow the link above to the research report (PDF), and read that for more accuracy.

White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

The Report from Imperial College London:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


3 posted on 03/16/2020 9:10:04 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: familyop

18 months really?


4 posted on 03/16/2020 9:29:39 PM PDT by cherry
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To: familyop

Related...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3825256/posts


5 posted on 03/16/2020 9:33:28 PM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (MAGA!!!)
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To: familyop
Climate change with a cough.This is not a related post. It's the same fear mongering crap.


PUSH HARDER!! Wham-Bam Wuhan Scam!


6 posted on 03/17/2020 12:20:19 AM PDT by SanchoP (DC is the deep state.)
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To: SanchoP

Thank you for proving the scientists and the President wrong with your brilliant gif posting.


7 posted on 03/17/2020 12:31:19 AM PDT by Dagnabitt
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To: Dagnabitt
---- and George thanks you from the bottom of his black heart.


8 posted on 03/17/2020 12:51:08 AM PDT by SanchoP (DC is the deep state.)
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To: SanchoP
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3825325/posts

Well, there goes the dirty, stinking, rotten "service industry" and the slavery that went with it. I want products made on U.S. soil by American men.

9 posted on 03/17/2020 6:21:20 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: SanchoP

Enjoy your fantasy safe-space snowflake.


10 posted on 03/17/2020 9:10:34 AM PDT by Dagnabitt
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