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Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus
Yahoo Finance ^ | 4/13/2020 | Adriana Belmonte

Posted on 03/16/2020 7:20:27 AM PDT by Dr. Marten

"Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”


(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: chinavirusus; corona; covid19; johnshopkins; virus
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To: newnhdad

I think my wife had it too

It was like a nasty flu but she tested negative for the flu B

Lasted about 7 days severe and another 2-4 days of malaise


81 posted on 03/16/2020 8:41:46 AM PDT by wardaddy (I applaud Jim Robinson for his comments on the Southern Monuments decision ...thank you)
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To: Dr. Marten

The Establishment is yelling fire in a crowed theater.


82 posted on 03/16/2020 8:42:57 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Dr. Marten

The worst guesses are guesses by “experts” before any data on which to base their guestimate. The ONLT things that are important is what actually happens, not any guesses as to what might happen.


83 posted on 03/16/2020 8:43:55 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Dr. Marten

If that’s a good guess, then we’ll see in a few days and take some time off.


84 posted on 03/16/2020 8:44:07 AM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: gas_dr

My list includes several more and they are all scum.


85 posted on 03/16/2020 8:45:48 AM PDT by tatown
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It does dilute the numbers of asymptomatics but not quite that much as several have been ill and denied testing because they didn’t meet the travel or known exposure criteria. So the silently infected and community spreadees have likely not been accounted for.


86 posted on 03/16/2020 8:55:25 AM PDT by Moonlighter
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To: grey_whiskers

Just what percentage of people who “get this” NEED a stay in the ICU? I’d wager that it is very, very small.


87 posted on 03/16/2020 9:08:04 AM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp???)
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To: Dr. Marten

I saw discussion on another site; wherein this doctor had applied the usual “factor of 10” before applying the factor of 25 above.

And elsewhere on FR, the health official from Ohio who mentioned the “100,000 infected” in Ohio backpedaled.

A lot of this reminds me of the pile-on over the “grab ‘em by the ...kitty” remark scandal with Trump; e.g. Geraldo starting rumors and then backpedaling like hell when Trump threatened him with a lawsuit.

It’s possible to have both a genuine crisis, and people exaggerating the hell out of it for political or monetary reasons (e..g George Sore-Ass mad a lot of his money shorting the British pound).


88 posted on 03/16/2020 9:09:23 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: MustKnowHistory

Actually, I think this is right. This was HERE in Decmeber, maybe mid-December, and few knew it. I know a dozen people who got “the flu” and recovered.

The reality is, this is an extremely NON-lethal flu, the likelihood is that many Americans had it, recovered and are immune.


89 posted on 03/16/2020 9:12:34 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: cuban leaf

Of course but I was using the ‘example’ as

I can do better than you, watch this.

OH YEAH, bet you can’t top this....

IF ALL THESE CLOWNS AREN’T TURNED OUT, WE DEFINITELY WILL BE DOOMED....or at least WISH we were...

Once the snowball starts and ‘they’ can get away with it, no telling what the schiffheads will come up with, JUST to exercise their ‘new powers’.


90 posted on 03/16/2020 9:12:36 AM PDT by xrmusn (6/98"HRC is the Grandmother that lures Hansel & Gretel to the pot")
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To: MustKnowHistory
After praying together at home for the National Day of Prayer, I told my wife the public is not be given the correct information. Based on the reported cases and deaths in a city the total cases can be estimated either as a range or best estimate. Then it should be expressed as 1 per # are infected. Our city’s reported rate is 1 per 200,000. I estimated that the infected are actually 1 pet 300 to 1 per 3000 in our metropolitan area. To me that means reasonable caution.

Why the greater probability? At least 80% of cases aren’t reported. And there’s a 2 to 10 day period where the contagious don’t have symptoms.

91 posted on 03/16/2020 9:14:41 AM PDT by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: hal ogen
Just what percentage of people who “get this” NEED a stay in the ICU? I’d wager that it is very, very small.

The issue isn't the percentage of those who get this; it's the absolute number of those who need advanced medical care, compared to the number of hospital beds available.

One of the issues is the need for airborne containment in the hospital, negative pressure rooms; there are only so many of those to go around.

Once the hospital capacity gets swamped, then one gets into triage of patients by age, co-morbidity, obesity, etc.

South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan, seem to have kept this from running out of control. But I think that was due to aggressive testing / quarantine at the earliest stages.

Italy has hundreds of thousands of Chinese working in the garment industry, who went home for Chinese New Year and brought it back.

The US is between those two responses -- Trump stopped flights from China over a month ago, but only on US-flagged carriers. Apparently we're still getting over 1,000 people/day from China.

And then there's the little matter of Turdeau in Canada allowing all flights from China. We might need to build a SECOND wall besides the one bordering Mexico...

92 posted on 03/16/2020 9:14:43 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Well I guess I need to start!


93 posted on 03/16/2020 9:16:56 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America)
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To: newnhdad

I feel we had it in our household too but in Decemeber.....profound tiredness and a cough that lasted..


94 posted on 03/16/2020 9:18:22 AM PDT by cherry
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To: MustKnowHistory

You just don’t get math.

Assuming 500k have it that means that 4 days ago 250k, 4 days before that 125k, 4 days before that 62.5k...

Where are the 4% of those previously infected that are ALREADY DEAD???

Apart from the nursing home, we have about 20 fatalities at this point in the entire country. TWENTY!!!!

TWO...ZERO!!!

You think there are a bunch of dead people hiding in the bushes? Where are the victims???

If this guy is right the WORST CASE (only 50k currently infected) mortality rate is about 0.3% which is ONE THIRTIETH the SARS death rate of 10%.

Give me a freaking break...


95 posted on 03/16/2020 9:21:05 AM PDT by Go_Raiders (The fact is, we really don't know anything. It's all guesswork and rationalization.)
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To: blam

Her mistake was just being about 20 years too soon. She just had to wait until we all accepted faggotry, and then teaching kids masturbation would seem tame in comparison.


96 posted on 03/16/2020 9:24:27 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: xrmusn

In all seriousness, I’ve felt for a long time that once Trump is out - be it in 2021 or 2025 - we’re done.

It won’t happen that day, but I think it will be pretty swift.


97 posted on 03/16/2020 9:26:12 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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To: Flaming Conservative

And people will die because of this economic shutdown.

For example, what about the inevitable increase in suicides because people can’t earn a living... think of the single young mom supporting herself and her infants...

Will these deaths even matter?

There is NOT a no cost solution to this disease.


98 posted on 03/16/2020 9:29:57 AM PDT by Willgamer (Rex Lex or Lex Rex?)
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To: grey_whiskers

98.5% or greater of the people who get this flu completely recover. Now how scary does that sound?

Turn off the TV and wash your hands and stay out of crowds just like for the regular flu. This is not an epidemic.


99 posted on 03/16/2020 9:38:22 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
(Shakes head.) It's not the flu. And they don't "completely recover". There are reports from China of people getting re-infected and dying: the mechanism is antibody-dependent enhancement, which was already known to exist from dengue fever.

It is also reported that a lot of survivors may be infertile, as the virus attacks binding sites in the testes.

And of those who do require advanced medical care (roughly 10% of those tested positive), many suffer lifelong damage to the lungs.

The issue is not the 90% of people who shrug it off; the issue is the very severe side effects among those who *don't*.

100 posted on 03/16/2020 9:44:16 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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