Posted on 03/15/2020 8:20:47 AM PDT by Crucial
I don't believe the Coronavirus will get in America out of hand like it did in China. I also believe the danger will pass in a fee weeks if we can just push through and not panic. There are a few reasons I say this. The most important reason is that we were forewarned. Lets hear it for the the power of free speech. It's something the Chinese people lack and allowing better communication could have saved more of them.
The Chinese people were not warned about the virus. Indeed, the Chicoms did their best not to warn their people. It was only when it got out of control that they had to take measures to fight the virus. So they chose to enforce mandatory social distancing among other more violent measures.
Americans are practicing social distancing in spades. As a people we do so more than any country. We like our space and we've extended that space. Of course, in the long run it's not good for our society.
The other thing I think people are practicing is better hygiene practices. People are washing their hands more often and longer. They are buying up and using sanitizer. This is crucial to stopping any virus.
Lastly, denying access to this country from places where the virus is out of control is vital. This inhibits the "viral input" into our communities. The travel ban will probably have to extend until the Europeans and others get their act together.
I don't see a reason why we can't beat this virus quickly. The measures have been extreme for a free and open country but they were implemented early. I don't see any reason why this virus won't peak soon and the cases start dropping precipitously.
You are correct.
This whole thing is a CCP blunder that has stopped the world.
This will not hurt President Trump.
If it was meant to hurt the President, they failed the timing miserably.
The reality is that the CDC set up a testing protocol that relied on government labs — which is why they had so few test kits available. For example Texas has 10 state labs — when all of them are running full bore, they can process 250 test kits / week total at all 10 sites. Now that the private sector is being engaged, they have developed an automated, high throughput test process that will be able to handle 1,000 test kits / day - at each lab.
In a few months we will look back on this as one huge overreaction
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Probably right but at the same time I hope we don’t dismiss it either. We need to get serious about increasing our national readiness for things like this.
I keep very good track of the spread of the Coronavirus in the U.S. I use the Wikipedia as my source and their numbers are pretty much in sync with the news reports.
At this time the growth rate of the infected population in the U.S. is running at 32% PER DAY.
That is a fast enough rate to infect the total population if it should continue. That won’t happen of course for two reasons:
1. As the size of the non-infected population decreases there is not enough candidates for infection to keep up a rate that high. It must decline and will do so naturally. But to get to that point requires the infection of a large percentage of the population. And a large number of deaths.
2. As the Trump restrictions begin to take effect there will be incremental reductions in that 32%. I watch that number like a hawk. If it starts to really decline starting in a week or so we should see the downward trend in the infection rate. How low will it go? Nobody knows.
Doctor or not, you are minimizing this and encouraging people not to modify behavior short term. China, Korea and Italy would not have virtually shut down their economies to deal with this if there was not a serious risk. Panic, no. Change behavior to what it should have been in the first place, yes. Additionally avoiding situations where mass infection is possible, yes. Forcefully quarantining infected unwilling to self quarantine and having consequences for breaking self quarantine, yes. You of all people should support this but your libertarian streak overwhelms reason.
Get ready for the swamp puppet Joe Biden presidency. I am sure his son will be a billionaire then.
Folks don’t understand that if this goes on for just a few weeks thousands and thousands of small businesses will fold and the 2nd quarter we will be in a recession. Swamp puppet Joe will win in a landslide with the brain dead population.
,,, only in your wet dreams does Joe Biden win.
More emotional tripe from you. In what way have I said the frail and infirm should die. I have merely stated what I know to be true — that the elderly are vulnerable to this and that any virus likely has the potential to harm the young and the old. In this case the young seem not affected. However, please counter my statement, that even assuming the worst, 85% of the vulnerable recover...
As I am attending a critical care unit, I do not think that I am sticking my head in the stand. I actually think I am on the frontline of treating this and many of the things I have said are from the scientific literature, and first hand experience in this pandemic and other pandemics. I am taking care of the sick who have this disease. I am joyfully practicing my mission. I am sorry that my experience is not jiving with your wishes.
Thanks for your insight.
Lets take this one at a time -- more contagious? The data are unclear. As we do not know the true number of cases (you know -- the 85% who are asymptomatic OR mild disease) we have no idea how contagious this is. If we use the South Korean model -- 7000(+)/150,000 Total tests, it appears to be about 5% spread. This is NOT as contagious as other disease processes
More deadly -- again cannot comment as the data are incomplete. What we do know is that using South Korea numbers assuming 5% spread in highly dense population, and THEIR number of 0.7% mortality -- overall mortality 0.035%. About on par with influenza
Longer incubation -- Currently 3 - 14 days with a mean of 5 days, so not exactly a longer incubation.
These are the data from the experts in the field. Please feel free to refute, but I will not tolerate it being said this is my data or I am manipulating it. If you wish to have an honest, data driven conversation, perhaps we can come to some agreement.
“Wait until a few get sick”...
Why, if this thing is so deadly, do we HAVE to wait? It had all the time in the world to, as they say, go viral. Even when people became aware the first thing they did was run to packed stores buying up everything in sight.
The current reaction is what you’d expect with tens of thousands dead and many more sick.
No, FDR was reelected during WWII with the phrase "Don't change horses in the middle of the stream". Some similar phrase will surface to convince people that changing Presidents willy nilly isn't a good idea.
I don’t think Biden will win but you’re certainly right about brain dead people.
Winston Churchill was voted out of office weeks after Germany surrendered. Idiots.
No, I am not MINIMIZING anything, rather, I am answering with data and science your overt panic. I am not a libertarian, I am a livery loving constitutionalist, and believe that the constitution was written to protect me from the government who MAY BE prone to overreach. The bill of rights? Its a list of Thou Shalt Not to the government. So, if you wish to trade your liberty for security, you are a government loving nanny statist.
Secondly, have I in ANY WAY indicated that REASONABLE percautions: hand washing, staying home while ill, not exposing the vulnerable elderly to people who are not feeling well to name a few are NOT reasonable nor prudent?
I suspect simply because I do NOT agree with you, that you wish to demean the argument by name calling. However you expose YOUR statism with this from your post: “Forcefully quarantining infected unwilling to self quarantine...yes”. Only one little step from that to “Forcefully quarantining those who disagree with me politically...yes”
Bottom line — this is EXACLTY the death of liberty that you and yours advocate. Thank you for coming out as someone willing to deny people of due process and individual liberty. You have indeed shown your colors.
US infection rate was rising at about a doubling every four days; last few days are a bit higher but that may well be due to increased testing. ‘Mortality’ (current deaths 62/3120 infections) is running at about 2% of infected, but that’s not quite the numbers needed for correct mortality, which should be deaths vs recovered, with time lag accounted for, but we don’t have recovered data. I agree the next few weeks are key. I am wondering if the best plan is for the high risk population to go into full quarantine and let the rest get it and get over it as fast as possible to build a herd immunity, then slowly re-integrate the higher risk population, with a slow enough infection rate that the medical system can manage reasonably.
I have wondered about this since the news about this facility became known. Our excellent advanced medical care can keep very frail people alive even though they usually cannot survive any kind of pneumonia.
I also think that we should be able to see a chart with aggregate information on age and underlying medical condition, including obesity and smoking status of every person who has died. It is possible that a pattern would be shown whereby people with certain risk factors could be assisted to self-isolate but the shutdown of an entire country would have been prevented.
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