US infection rate was rising at about a doubling every four days; last few days are a bit higher but that may well be due to increased testing. ‘Mortality’ (current deaths 62/3120 infections) is running at about 2% of infected, but that’s not quite the numbers needed for correct mortality, which should be deaths vs recovered, with time lag accounted for, but we don’t have recovered data. I agree the next few weeks are key. I am wondering if the best plan is for the high risk population to go into full quarantine and let the rest get it and get over it as fast as possible to build a herd immunity, then slowly re-integrate the higher risk population, with a slow enough infection rate that the medical system can manage reasonably.
I think the young people will do that by accident. They are not going to stay in if they believe the virus doesn’t really affect them. I was young once I would have felt the same way. So I expect them to start running the streets again pretty soon. I agree with your idea of self quarantine for those at risk. My wife is going nowhere and I’m being judicious in where I go.