Posted on 03/13/2020 11:14:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Will the COVID-19 outbreak burn out in the summer as happened with the SARS epidemic in 2003?
That is what many hope, including U.S. President Donald Trump. Some scientists are also speculating that the coronavirus will not survive long in warmer environments. But whether this is true is still up in the air.
The number of new confirmed cases has shown signs of slowing over the past several days, and more patients are being released from hospitals every day. But the point when the number of infected people declines is still not in sight.
Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese respiratory expert who became famous for his role in the 2003 SARS epidemic, said on Monday that he expects the number of new cases to peak in late February. But whether that would mark the turning point depends on what effect resumption of work across China would have on the spread of the disease.
Wang Chen, a respiratory expert at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, told state broadcaster CCTV that appropriate quarantine measures combined with warm weather will help curb the spread.
Theoretically, the COVID-19 virus -- part of the coronavirus family that also includes SARS and MERS -- is sensitive to temperature. All viruses are made up of a nucleic acid molecule inside a protein shell called a capsid. Some viruses, such as coronavirus, have an external membrane outside the shell. The membrane is relatively sensitive to heat.
COVID-19 remains stable at 4 degrees Celsius and can survive for several years at 60 degrees below zero, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In higher temperatures, its resistance declines, but the temperature affects only the virus' survival time, not its ability to infect, the center says.
Similar results were found with the SARS coronavirus. SARS remains stable at 4 degrees Celsius, but will lose its activeness in three days at 37 degrees and can survive for only 15 minutes at 70 degrees Celsius below zero, according to research by Bao Zuoyi and Liu Yongjian at China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences.
During the 2003 SARS outbreak, for every rise of 1 degree Celsius in Hong Kong, where the virus killed almost 300 people, the number of confirmed cases declined by 3.6. The SARS outbreak lasted about eight months.
Similar to COVID-19, the first SARS case was recorded late in the year. The number of confirmed cases peaked in April 2003, and no more patients were found in July. Scientists have never discovered a cure for SARS, and it is widely believed the virus dies off during warm weather.
According to the 2007 book "SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped" by Shigeru Omi, regional director of the World Health Organization, the United Nations health agency attributed the defeat of the epidemic to transparent reporting of cases, efforts to control the flow of infected people, and warm weather.
But differences between SARS and COVID-19 make it difficult to predict the resilience of the new virus. Unlike SARS, which can only infect others by patients with a fever, people with COVID-19 can spread the disease without exhibiting any symptoms, making it much harder to control the outbreak.
A recent study showed that COVID-19 is far more contagious than SARS. Published on Feb. 15 by the medical research archive bioRxiv, the study was conducted by a team led by University of Texas researcher Jason McLellan, who for years has been researching different types of coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.
As temperatures rise, coronavirus floats in the air or attaches to surfaces -- both places where it can survive for only a short time. But once in the body, its ability to infect does not decrease, said Ma Ke, a doctor at Wuhan Tongji Hospital.
From what I’ve seen, the weather in most of Florida has been very warm. There are something like 50 cases of COVID-19 in Florida, so......
RE: There are something like 50 cases of COVID-19 in Florida, so......
Not very useful.
Where did these 50 cases get their infection? OUTSIDE Florida or within?
Also, how fast is community transmission within Florida itself?
Warmer than usual weather is forecast across the country for spring. Then comes summer and warmer.
Popular tourist areas are a problem, but tourism is about to end for while.
It will be interesting to see if the slowdown in large crowd activities has an effect, and how much effect.
I’m surprised we haven’t heard about hot spots in homeless areas.
No cases yet in the Bahamas, a tourist spot but very warm.
What’s the weather like in Iran right now? They have a lot of cases.
It all depends if the people in Australia who have it, got it traveling or not. Can you answer that question?
Did they get infected in Brazil or were they travelers who got it somewhere else.
The two people who died from COVID-19 in Florida were travelers and probably got their disease from somewhere else.
Where the remaining cases, travelers?
Did they get infected in Brazil or were they travelers who got it somewhere else.
Good question, I assume at least some of them got it there at home.
RE: What’s the weather like in Iran right now? They have a lot of cases.
It varies from 50 to 65 degrees Fahrenheit at this time.
Warm weather per se will not kill the virus. Consider: it survives very will in a 98.6 degree environment. What kills off the “seasonal” flu is the sunshine. The sun is at a better angle and people tend to go about hatless and bare-armed. Sunshine/vitamin D is the very best medicine and preventative for normal seasonal viruses and possibly for WuHanFlu also. In the summer people can still be afflicted with flu or colds but it tends to be indoor people and night workers who sleep when the sun is up. I will take what recommended precautions I can with this thing but I will also continue my vitamin D3 supplements that have kept me and my family and friends virus free for 13-14 years. We do not take flu shots. So far there is no WHF hereabouts but it is only a matter of time. This is a spring break destination and breakers are already here. We have an airport and there is WHF 50 miles up the road.
Sunshine may knock it back as it does seasonal flu and colds. Warmth will not at least not warmth below 98.6 degrees.
Interesting... I didn't know that. Thanks.
Global warming is awesome...
Too soon to know. First, FL has had several spells of cooler weather in the past month. Nothing like the cold north, but cool by Florida standards.
Otherwise, FL is not a good example due to the extraordinary number of tourists from all over the nation/world bringing the virus into the state. Some FL counties/regions have multiple COVID-19 cases while others are spared. Too many variables at this point. A lot depends on whether Spring Breakers will stay home or spread their joy in the next month.
Tourism is the life blood of Florida. COVID-19 presents a conundrum to stifle tourism and hunker down, while devastating the livelihood of many.
In this study, we showed that high temperature at high relative humidity has a synergistic effect on inactivation of SARS CoV viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of virus on contaminated surfaces. The environmental conditions of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are thus not conducive to the prolonged survival of the virus. In countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong where there is a intensive use of air-conditioning, transmission largely occurred in well-air-conditioned environments such as hospitals or hotels. Further, a separate study has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature in Hong Kong [24] and other regions [15–17].
Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial outbreaks of SARS (Tables 1 and 2(a)–2(c)). It may also explain why Singapore, which is also in tropical area (Table 2(d)), had most of its SARS outbreaks in hospitals (air-conditioned environment). Interestingly, during the outbreak of SARS in Guangzhou, clinicians kept the windows of patient rooms open and well ventilated and these may well have reduced virus survival and this reduced nosocomial transmission. - https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/
With a population of 209.3 million (2017) "several cases" (19) is not very significant.
SARS was first isolated in the early 00’s.
29 out of 21,477,737 (3-12)
They were speaking specifically about COVID-19 which they only knew about since Nov. (or so they claim)
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