Posted on 03/11/2020 12:15:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Infectious disease specialists and health experts say that while cases of the new coronavirus will likely continue to grow in the United States, current case fatality rates appear to be an overestimation.
Cases of the virus have jumped over the past few days, now with over 1,000 confirmed across the United States, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University. As of this writing, there have been at least 32 coronavirus-linked deaths.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on March 3, global case fatality rate is “about 3.4 percent.” But a handful of public health experts told The Epoch Times the case fatality rate—”the proportion of persons with a particular condition who die from that condition,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—in the United States is lower than the 2 or 3 percent currently estimated.
Harry Scholtz, vice president of infectious disease and infection prevention at BEAM Telemedicine and Healthcare, told The Epoch Times that the estimated fatality rate is “likely an overestimate.”
“It disproportionately includes elderly patients with medical conditions and not anyone who was untested and recovered fully,” Scholtz, an infectious disease physician, said.
At the same time, the incubation period for coronavirus can be as long as 24 days according to the largest study analyzing patients of the disease so far—another indication the number of actual cases is likely higher than reported. Some patients are also testing positive for the virus while showing no symptoms at all, according to a letter published in The New England Journal of Medicine.
“Young people (under 15) had no severe illness whatsoever,” Scholtz said. “It could be that they already possess antibodies that provide protection against COVID-19, or their immune systems are better able to fight off .”
(Excerpt) Read more at theepochtimes.com ...
When do the “experts” think this thing will burn itself out?
= = = = = = = = =
Best I can see is the radical Rs say what flu?
While
The Libs are saying Nov3 or when PDJT assumes room temp.
I would imagine that if the FED cut off the money, this crap would just ‘die on the vine’ and be claimed another ‘unknown strain’.
FOLLOW THE MONEY....
Saw an interesting ‘cartoon’ that asks the LIBS if the ‘Russians bought ‘collusion/an election’ for 250 mill’ what do we call Bloomberg spending 500 Bill and NOT swaying an election??(other than crazy or stupid)
“When do the ‘experts’ think this thing will burn itself out?”
I’m not an expert, but my WAG is the first Tuesday in November.
Coronavirus: Man, 100 years old, recovers and returns home after fighting off deadly disease.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-man-100-recovers-returns-21672127
Both the Italian and Asian societies cited have a large number of households with elderly people living with younger family members. That has impacted the transmission and death rates.
Here, we stash a lot of our old people in quasi-hospitals where we don’t need to think about them and it will be easier to isolate those at most risk... Grandpa may discover that being the forgotten patriarch of his family has a silver lining.
No it's not good, but the WORST case is around 6%, and even that isn't a culture destroyer.
We'll lose a lot of people who have been through multiple sky is falling scenarios and the remaining people's BS detectors won't be as well tuned, making them more vulnerable to politicians stampeding them...
We'll get through this as a society and likely personally.
Disappointment and unhappiness. I forgot to add denial and diversion.
The death rate here and the u.s. is already below 3%, and a week from now it’ll be well under two probably even under one depending on how aggressive people are with getting new testing.
Your numbers aren’t even accurate for the worldwide death rate.
BUT without fudging the numbers how can the Corona cheerleaders keep it going.
Never thought I would see, right here on Free Republic, people ignoring science.
Calculated how?
If they use the same formula for recovered, do they get 99-99.5%?
If the percentages of survivors and fatalities doesn't add up to 100%, Houston, we have a problem...
If they all arrive at once? No. Nowhere on earth.
If we wash our hands, minimize contact, and avoid spreading it as much as possible, we can slow the spread and smear out the peak over time. That lowers the instantaneous demand spike, while buying precious time to develop treatments that will save the later cases.
As someone over 70, but without a pulmonary or cardio condition, I find the question of whether its "and" or "or" important.
One thing I don’t see people talking about is we have tested around 8000 people with known close vectors to people with the vireos. We have 1000 positives. So about a 122.5 z transmission rate. How does that compare to the normal flu.
The "It's just the flu, Bro" crew has taken to using the entire population of the earth as the denominator.
I was just sarcastically kidding when I suggested it.
I'm sorry!
I'm using the JHU CSSE data. Run the numbers yourself:
Date: 3/11/20 12:13 PDT
Confirmed cases: 124,578
Deaths: 4584
Recovered: 66,702
Calculate death rate and recovery rate using whatever method you choose.
Show your work, and if survival percentage and fatality percentage don't add to to 100% show why.
Figures presented as death rates seem to be ratios of dead to reported cases. More accurate would be deaths to recoveries and will not be known until the WuHanFlu has run its course. Even then it won’t include mild cases which never even get reported and are apparently more numerous than the hospitalizations. Many people get a mild dose and just stay home for a while.
No idea, nor do I know where to look.
Mongo just pawn in game of life...
“Many people get a mild dose and just stay home for a while.”
—
Could be many, could be just a few. The x variable is a problem with things like this. But it is more likely that many did just tough it out - and that many still are, since it might manifest as a slight cold.
Doesn’t matter.
What matters is the death rate here in the United States. I’ve already made my prediction on that many times.
Once the denominator of the formula doubles, triples, and even more within the next week or two the death rate is going to go way down
The textbook formula.
Works very well for historical epidemics, where everyone has already run the full course of the disease.
Deaths/completed cases give a more accurate read on the actual rate for ongoing epidemics.
If we could offset the numbers to account for the differing lengths of the disease process, i.e. if someone either recovers of dies quickly the formula works pretty well. If most people linger for months before dying, or recover quickly, the perceived rate will be front loaded with reported recoveries, with a fund of will-be-dead waiting in the wings to boost the rate at the end.
What are you using for the denominator?
Are you unable to run the existing numbers?
Do you need me to ship you a calculator?
Or are you not an eagle, but too chicken to do the calculations?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.