Posted on 03/11/2020 12:15:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Infectious disease specialists and health experts say that while cases of the new coronavirus will likely continue to grow in the United States, current case fatality rates appear to be an overestimation.
Cases of the virus have jumped over the past few days, now with over 1,000 confirmed across the United States, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University. As of this writing, there have been at least 32 coronavirus-linked deaths.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on March 3, global case fatality rate is “about 3.4 percent.” But a handful of public health experts told The Epoch Times the case fatality rate—”the proportion of persons with a particular condition who die from that condition,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—in the United States is lower than the 2 or 3 percent currently estimated.
Harry Scholtz, vice president of infectious disease and infection prevention at BEAM Telemedicine and Healthcare, told The Epoch Times that the estimated fatality rate is “likely an overestimate.”
“It disproportionately includes elderly patients with medical conditions and not anyone who was untested and recovered fully,” Scholtz, an infectious disease physician, said.
At the same time, the incubation period for coronavirus can be as long as 24 days according to the largest study analyzing patients of the disease so far—another indication the number of actual cases is likely higher than reported. Some patients are also testing positive for the virus while showing no symptoms at all, according to a letter published in The New England Journal of Medicine.
“Young people (under 15) had no severe illness whatsoever,” Scholtz said. “It could be that they already possess antibodies that provide protection against COVID-19, or their immune systems are better able to fight off .”
(Excerpt) Read more at theepochtimes.com ...
Hopefully the US rate will be lower than elsewhere, my speculation is here it’ll be somewhere between 1 to 2 percent.
Unless you’re over 70 years old and/or suffer from an existing pulmonary condition, you’re not under threat from SARS-CoV-2. Italians suffered a high death rate because of demographic factors such as large number of elderly and the way many Italians greet each other.
I’ve said for long time that once widespread testing results begin coming in the death rate is going to fall way way below 1%, with widespread disappointment and unhappiness.
RE: and the way many Italians greet each other.
The Japanese don’t hug each other when they greet. They bow. So do the Koreans. But they also have high infection rates.
My guess is going to be lower than that because we never got the huge spike of initial infections like what happened in Japan and South Korea, thanks to strict bans of people coming in from China at the beginning of February 2020. And definitely not the cultural factors that contributed to its fast spread in Iran and Italy. My guess is 0.3%, mostly anyone over 70 and/or afflicted with a pulmonary disease.
But the Japanese and South Koreans didn’t aggressively stop people coming in from China until well after the US banned them at the beginning of February 2020. Fortunately, the disease is starting to fall in South Korea, since it appears the government has gotten its message out for older people to protect themselves more diligently. The same applies for Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, where aggressive government publicity efforts over social networks commonly used in Asia has kept the spread there under control.
Yes but many japanese and koreans live in densely packed areas and in multi-unit buildings, so there’s additional factors to consider.
But yet, SARS-CoV-2 didn’t overrun Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Maybe highly aggressive government publicity efforts over TV, radio, Internet web pages and social networks helped?
I think that hes definitely, and having people adopt effective simple ways to reduce their getting infected.
This man is not a political hack or a kook:
So, if it’s 1%, and let’s suppose that with better medicine in the US, we could cut that in half, that’s still not very good.
Who will be the first freeper to catch Covid-19? Will we get our live thread updates on symptoms, effects, quarantine, etc....?
Numbers from South Korea seem to indicate somewhere between 0.5 and 1%. Most probably we’ll end up there. That is much higher than the flu and cause for concern. But not these crazy panic numbers.
As we pretty much all suspected.
Now the question is — can the ERs and ICUs handle the coming load of critical patients.
That 1% fatality is 1% of people who actually get infected, not 1% of the entire country population.
Further, like the flu, that 1% is not spread out evenly across everyone who gets infected. Certain demographics are going to be much higher and others much lower.
Third thing is what strain you get. they know of AT LEAST two different ones, and one is mild and one is more severe and has the lung/pneumonia issue that comes up easier.
Much of this can be prevented and risk reduced just by increasing handwashing, santizing phones and surfaces you touch, and not being in large groupings any more than you absolutely need to be. Which is what a lot of people do in the winter, anyway, just because it’s winter.
And if you don’t have kids at home that is a huge disease vector you don’t have to worry about. Otherwise you should be practicing more sanitary processes all the time not just when its flu season or the wintertime.
“My guess is going to be lower than that because we never got the huge spike of initial infections like what happened in Japan and South Korea, thanks to strict bans of people coming in from China at the beginning of February 2020.”
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Could be, I hope you’re right. The problem I see with the reasoning is that we’re dealing with a barn that has hundreds of doors. Shut the China door, but all the other ones have been wide open for a long time. Lots of horses getting out to this day.
Hmmm. When I calculate deaths/completed cases I get 6.4%
Does their formula get percentage of recovered + percentage of fatalities = 100%?
Until yesterday the mortality rate (deaths/completed cases) was falling. It never got below 5.7% and is starting to climb again.
I'm still hoping you are correct and the final rate will be close to 1%.
Anyone hear of any estimates how long this will last? When do the “experts” think this thing will burn itself out?
The caller to Rush, a doctor, between 2:00 and 2:15, made some good points about how the numbers being put out there aren’t realy based on good scientific research protocol.
But ... whatever it takes to harm Trump is what’s going to be reported. And the CDC is fill of hotshots like Rod Rosenstein’s sister, so there’s that.
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