Data shows daily coronavirus deaths are decreasing worldwide. Media misleads with cumulative statistics and graphs

Tech Startups ^ | POSTED ON MARCH 8, 2020 | TechStartups Team

[narses]

With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.

The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.

Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”

Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”

[RummyChick]

Hysterical??? I am not getting a margin call. I will be looking for those that DID get a margin call.

There will also be a lot of margin calls for those that sold naked puts.

But that might be far above your head if you are one that claims there will be no margin calls

[narses]

“The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%,” Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. “That’s lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it’s not likely in the range of 2 to 3%”

[lodi90]

The current number of cases in the U.S. is 478. A week ago it was 57.

Those numbers are small. You can look at them and maybe convince yourself that there is nothing to worry about.

But the number of cases went up by a factor of about 8. If that growth continues then we will be approaching 4000 a week from today.

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In the meantime hundreds have died of the flu. Last I read the average age of death in Italy was 81. So, yeah, unless you have preexisting conditions or are elder there is nothing to worry about. Sorry.

[narses]

“There will also be a lot of margin calls for those that sold naked puts.”

Idiots and speculators do that. I should care? Why? That is actually BULLISH.

[little jeremiah]

Dear Everyone,
The reason South Korea has so many cases isn’t that they prevented spread.

It’s that they *detected* the spread.

They tested hundreds of thousands of people, including asymptomatic + mild cases.

That’s HOW you do it.

Their death rate (0.6%) is a better estimate— Jeremy Faust MD MS (@jeremyfaust) March 6, 2020

Why are there more deaths from #coronavirus in Italy than South Korea? Our best guess is because 7.5% of Italians are over 80 years old vs 3.6% in Korea. Chinese data show this is the most vulnerable age group. Big implications for Japan, Greece, Germany, + much of EU #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/TS4OvVR9lV— Charlie Robertson (@RencapMan) March 2, 2020

Thank you @RonLin for including me in this piece!

Why does the fatality rate of coronavirus keep changing?

Because of who is getting tested.

When you only test ICU patients, the numbers are high.

When you test *everyone, you get more realistic data.https://t.co/BgRjIcO0iv— Jeremy Faust MD MS (@jeremyfaust) March 7, 2020

Yes, massive testing will cause a short term scare because we’ll detect mild and even symptom-free cases.

But when people see for themselves that for *most, coronavirus is mild (tho *sometimes devastating for older + vulnerable people), it‘ll eventually have the opposite effect. https://t.co/GqqHpyAwRl— Jeremy Faust MD MS (@jeremyfaust) March 7, 2020

According to this - based on the first 21 deaths in Italy - all were elderly https://t.co/O4s8VemyNa— Charlie Robertson (@RencapMan) March 2, 2020

[RummyChick]

Many brokers don’t allow margins in certain kinds of accounts. That is not relevant.

ONce again, take a look at how far down the indexes are and once AGAIN take a look at how much each tick costs you if you are on the wrong side.

Sheesh, you can’t understand how that is going to generate margin calls?

Give it a rest.You are clueless

[Vermont Lt]

401 k plans are not marginable. Well, you can do covered calls in them.

The decline every day between 2 and 3 is because margin calls go out around 1 PM

This decline wiped out small margin players two weeks ago.

The big guys (investment banks) are going down with the oil collapse.

Who knew that a simple flu could shit-can the entire world economy.

[lepton]

Test or no test, I presume that we would notice if people starting coming down with it on a mass scale.

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Further, without the specific tests the CDC has been putting out, if there were large numbers with symptoms, the disease would have been isolated here through other means. They symptoms have commonalities with the normal flu varieties, but not the same. We’d be picking them up in random chest x-rays and CT scans.

[InterceptPoint]

If you test more you find more cases. That increases the count.

But, as you point out, testing early as in South Korea has helped slow the spread of the virus. But that is because they managed to find new cases early and then isolate these people. They immediately acted to reduce the number of people capable of infecting others.

And that doesn’t reduce the count but it can radically slow the growth rate of new cases. Slow that growth enough and the threat will rapidly fade away.

[DouglasKC]

So you have nothing that backs up your fearmongering? MERS and SARS are coronavirus pandemics that did not kill you, why the fearmongering?

Is the CDC fear mongering?

Several major impacts can be anticipated during a severe outbreak that could affect the operations of healthcare facilities. These include surges in patients seeking care, the potential for workforce absenteeism from personal or family illness, and effects from social distancing measures such as school closures. Healthcare facilities will likely need to adjust the way they triage, assess and care for patients using methods that do not rely on face-to-face care.
Shifting practices to triaging and assessing ill patients (including those affected by COVID-19 and patients with other conditions) remotely using nurse advice lines, provider “visits” by telephone, text monitoring system, video conference, or other telehealth and telemedicine methods can reduce exposure of ill persons with staff and minimize surge on facilities. Many clinics and medical offices already use these methods to triage and manage patients after hours and as part of usual practices. Recent reports suggest that approximately 80% of COVID-19 patients (of all ages) have experienced mild illness[i]. Managing persons at home who are ill with mild disease can reduce the strain on healthcare systems—however, these patients will need careful triage and monitoring.

The CDC footnotes a report in the Journal of American Medicine (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130) that states:

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

The report cited by the CDC goes on to define the terms:

However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24 to 48 hours), and 5% were critical (ie, respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure) (Box).1

Any of the SEVERE symptoms will require some type of hospitalization by today's standards. For example dyspnea means shortness of breath. Someone is not able to breathe normally. You don't get a pat on the back and sent away.

But EVEN if SEVERE means NO hospitalizations the 5% critical means that they are going to die right away without treatment. And IF the virus is ONLY as widespread as a very mild flu season THAT alone will overwhelm the medical system.

Do you understand? I'm trying to inject some reality into your thinking. It's not fear mongering. It's a warning. Are you ready for it? Your government is TELLING you it's going to happen unless there's a miracle.

[teletech]

“The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%,” Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. “That’s lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it’s not likely in the range of 2 to 3%”

So as of 9:03 PM tonight the USA had 547 cases. How soon before that number levels off and what action might be necessary to make that happen?

[narses]

“Many brokers don’t allow margins in certain kinds of accounts. That is not relevant.”

Really? And what percent of the market is margined?

[narses]

You get it. :)

[bankwalker]

crude at $28 per barrel right now ... down 32% ... and still dropping ... after a 10% drop on Friday ...

[RummyChick]

This has the potential to do a Lehman type blow up

Will it? Dont know

Lots of rumors circulating about about Bond Funds being blown up...

[narses]

“Do you understand? I’m trying to inject some reality into your thinking. It’s not fear mongering.”

Well, yes it is. You are misreading the data and nothing you posted supports your claims. Have a nice night.

[lepton]

.put ANY flu virus in the same Washington State old age home and you will unfortunately have the same results

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Severe results. Not the same results.
The Home in particular was investigated in regards a flu outbreak last winter, and after improving their procedures, apparently had another flu outbreak this past fall. Most of these patients who died from the coronavirus appear to have survived these flu outbreaks.

[RummyChick]

How do you think the futures are bought and sold. ONCE AGAIN, look how much ONE contract controls and how much is lost with ONE tick

Give it a rest. Your 401k stuff is peanuts.

[narses]

“Lots of rumors circulating about about Bond Funds being blown up...”

Really, you have links? Or maybe you are a floor trader? (BEWAHAHAhahaha.....)

[Freedom56v2]

Could you please clarify which part is falsehood?