Unraveling R<sub>0</sub>: Considerations for Public Health Applications

We assessed public health use of R₀, the basic reproduction number, which estimates the speed at which a disease is capable of spreading in a population. These estimates are of great public health interest, as evidenced during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic.

We reviewed methods commonly used to estimate R₀, examined their practical utility, and assessed how estimates of this epidemiological parameter can inform mitigation strategy decisions.

In isolation, R₀ is a suboptimal gauge of infectious disease dynamics across populations; other disease parameters may provide more useful information. Nonetheless, estimation of R₀ for a particular population is useful for understanding transmission in the study population. Considered in the context of other epidemiologically important parameters, the value of R₀ may lie in better understanding an outbreak and in preparing a public health response.

This is an excellent article on R₀ estimates, especially the pros and cons of early calculations in a health situation. With many people throwing around R₀ estimates like they're Gospel Truths, this article should be a helpful resource for people focused on Coronavirus.

ERROR IN R₀ ESTIMATES AND PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

After considering these issues, we believe that the estimation of the basic reproductive number, R₀, for a particular disease epidemic has limited practical value outside the population from which the disease data originated. For example, epidemiologists have employed R₀ in understanding the 1918 influenza pandemic, making myriad estimates by applying various models, resulting in a broad range of published values.28 This variability highlights the difficulties associated with measuring the basic reproductive number of an epidemic, even when working with a considerable body of epidemiological data from a pandemic that occurred well in the past....Overreliance on early estimates of R₀ made in one country can lead to policy decisions in another country that may be suboptimal for that country. Moreover, disparate estimations of R₀ may drive inadequately informed policies.

Arrrrr nought or not arrrrr nought, that is the question...
...it's a knotty problem, not just limited to nautical issues, or even niceical ones.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

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