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This is an excellent article on R0 estimates, especially the pros and cons of early calculations in a health situation. With many people throwing around R0 estimates like they're Gospel Truths, this article should be a helpful resource for people focused on Coronavirus.

ERROR IN R0 ESTIMATES AND PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

After considering these issues, we believe that the estimation of the basic reproductive number, R0, for a particular disease epidemic has limited practical value outside the population from which the disease data originated. For example, epidemiologists have employed R0 in understanding the 1918 influenza pandemic, making myriad estimates by applying various models, resulting in a broad range of published values.28 This variability highlights the difficulties associated with measuring the basic reproductive number of an epidemic, even when working with a considerable body of epidemiological data from a pandemic that occurred well in the past....Overreliance on early estimates of R0 made in one country can lead to policy decisions in another country that may be suboptimal for that country. Moreover, disparate estimations of R0 may drive inadequately informed policies.

1 posted on 03/03/2020 6:54:26 PM PST by DoodleBob
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To: DoodleBob

.


2 posted on 03/03/2020 6:57:29 PM PST by sauropod (David Horowitz: “Inside every progressive is a totalitarian screaming to get out.”)
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To: null and void

3 posted on 03/03/2020 7:15:05 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: DoodleBob

Don’t listen to any of these idiots

it’s all propaganda


4 posted on 03/03/2020 7:29:21 PM PST by Truthoverpower (The guv mint you get is the Trump winning express !)
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To: DoodleBob

For deeper read


6 posted on 03/03/2020 8:11:17 PM PST by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian.)
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