So COVID-19 has about the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu
Remember the great worldwide economic collapse after the Spanish flu epidemic? It was called “The Roaring Twenties”.
More than Y2K? So 97.5% were okay then? New math confuses me. :-)
Watch this, if you have the stomach for the details of that epidemic:
PANIC!
AIDs.....panic
Bees dying.....panic
Y2K.......panic
Flu......panic
Global Warming......panic
Seesh
1918 flu, healthy people in the prime of life could wake up feeling well in the morning, and be dead by midnight.
Far as we know, coronavirus is different.
So is medical science.
Or not. The flu has decades of data including a good idea of asymptomatic carriers. Nobody knows about the Spanish flu or this. The sample is too small and the disinformation from China is all false.
Check this out:
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1007/1007.2842.pdf
Posted on another thread: The media are idiots; I have heard such BS over this disease, it’s almost become a joke. Before I was a white haired old geezer on a pension, I was a manager of medical laboratories. Virology is just one of many laboratory sciences in which I was trained. Corona virus is common virus that has been around since the dawn of time. Some years, it becomes more virulent the same as the flu virus does. Next season, Corona virus will be back to causing the sniffles. It’s an RNA virus so it is constantly changing.
“So COVID-19 has about the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu”
I click on the Stanford.edu article and did not find any data related to COVID-19.
Just wondering where did you get the rate for COVID-19. Can you show me some numbers and sources?
George Soros made his fortune by scaring people.
But a higher percentage of the population died during the Bubonic Plague, with estimates ranging from 30% to 60% of the total population died from the Black Death.
CDC statistics: (regular) flu deaths this past year - 56,000. 250,000 hospitalized. (Regular) flu deaths the year before - 61,000. Flu deaths for the CoronaVirus worldwide - 3,000. CV hospitalizations worldwide - 80,000.
Let’s all take a deep breath on this one. Rush is right - WHO is whupping it up? For what reason? Couldn’t possibly be to take down President Trump, now could it? He’s got a roaring economy, but ‘suddenly’ it’s being threatened and he has cut the budget on the CDC.
Stinks to high heaven imho.
Every 50-75 years mankind needs to reduce the excess population. Cull the herd. Flu or tactical nuclear war are two ways. The flu is more effective.
I think what made the Spanish flu worse was the fact it happened when US troops were spreading the disease around war-ravaged Europe at a very high rate.
Among the many things that must be determined with this virus is what the mortality rate in each and every nation where it’s found. I’ve read 2% as the mortality rate. OK,perhaps it is 2% in China,a Third World cesspool that still depends on “barefoot doctors” (remember them from the 60s?).OTOH,it could be 0.2% in an advanced,civilzed nation like Japan,Britain or the US and the majority of those fatalities are in the elderly or those with compromised immune systems.
The death rate in the spanish flu is pretty useless as a comparison. The standard treatment was a minimum of 25 tablets 325mg each of aspirin per day.
The thinking was if you had a fever, they would force feed you aspirin until the fever stopped!
Nobody figured out what that did to clotting and bleeding in your lungs.
Hell, with Nyquil alone the death rate of spanish flu today would be almost nothing. They were -barely- outta the dark ages medically speaking.
The mortality rate of both appears to be the same. Ease of transmission appears to be similar too, in that people are transmitting the virus without showing symptoms. That’s what makes it dangerous. One undetected person can spread a lot of flu if they or authorities don’t know they have it.
Then there is the intentional terrorist wave to worry about. A suicide bomber mentality with only a 2.5% risk factor ups the ante a lot.
The 1918 Flu Pandemic occurred when the total population of the Earth was around 1.8 billion. Estimates of how many died are all over the place because record-keeping in those days was not very good. Most likely the total was between 50 to 100 million. 50 million dead would be 2.7%, 100 million dead would be 5.4%. Not good in any way.
Thank God we’re finally going to see millions of people die and I can say “I told you so!!!”
I have been so disappointed when all my other predictions of mass epidemic deaths failed to materialize.
“So COVID-19 has about the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu”
No, that is documented confirmed cases, from communist china. The truth is that this thing is no worse than any other flu out there. But we are witnessing a Communist dictatorship going full authoritarian, and a hard anti-Trump media trying very hard to tank the economy. That happens by 24/7 scare propaganda.
Coronavirus = Y2k
The Case Fatality Rate (or Case Fatality Ratio or CFR) is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.
The Mortality Rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1,000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total.
Thus, for coronavirus, let's assume there are 77,660 confirmed cases of, and 2,663 deaths due to coronavirus in Mainland China. Let's also assume (and sidestep the debate over accuracy) there are 1.3bn people in Mainland China and 200 million under quarantine. With these numbers, depending upon the context, you can get these figures:
Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 1.3bn or 0.0002% or 0.2 people per 100,000 (the context is all of Mainland China).
Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 200MM or 0.0013% or 1.33 people per 100,000 (conxtex is the Rate is conditional upon the people being under quarantine).
CFR of 2,663 / 77660 or 3.4% at this time in Mainland China, without any correction for recovery/"being cured" or timing mismatch (i.e. Not all people in numerator and denominator have been infected or dead for the same amount of time - that would require a cohort analysis).
In fact, the literature on CFRs usually has a qualifier that a CFR is basically "valid" ONLY when the pandemic is through. Thus, these numbers are in flux and can / may / will change from day to day.
The point of my post is to differentiate between the varying rates and ratios and percentages being quoted. Further, while a CFR today isn't comparable directly to a CFR for some other disease that has run its course, I do believe there is benefit in calculating the CFR and making comparisons across countries and time. After all, we keep track of the runs scored during a baseball game even though it ain't over till its over.
I am not a biostatistician nor do I play one on TV. But this knowledge should serve people well during this saga.