Coronavirus Live Thread. Live Thread 1

2/23/2020

[Vermont Lt]

Figured we would start numbering the threads.

Some points to keep in mind:

1. This thing is not “just the flu.” 2. 1/10th of the worlds population is in some sort of lockdown. 3. Generally, we don’t buy the Chinese numbers But if anything they are low. 4. Everyone is welcome to post, but don’t bore us with your “you are panicking” posts. They are tedious.

It’s Sunday night and the Walking Dead is back. Let’s talk Coronavirus.

[Pollard]

Wouldn’t this be visible on a good microscope? I’m seeing pictures of the little bugger all over the web. From what I understand, every single bodily excrement has it. What exactly is the test kit?

[freeangel]

Singapore? As far as I know—not much is happening there—or at least not being reported. I did ask my son who lives there.

[LilFarmer]

S.Korea

Camp Humphrey’s: South Korea USFK dependent tests positive for coronavirus, putting military on high alert in South Korea. Visited base twice.

Col. Michael Tremblay, the garrison commander at Camp Humphreys, said that some troops had also been quarantined “out of an abundance of caution” because they had either been to China or been tested for the virus and were awaiting results.

The widow of a retired soldier who recently visited stores on a southeastern base tested positive for the new coronavirus in the first confirmed case for the Army in South Korea, officials said. Col. Michael Tremblay, the garrison commander at Camp Humphreys, said that some troops had also been quarantined “out of an abundance of caution” because they had either been to China or been tested for the virus and were awaiting results.

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/usfk-dependent-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-putting-military-on-high-alert-in-south-korea-1.620023

[blueplum]

Lancet study, Feb 24, 2020

Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study

Xiaobo Yang, MD Yuan Yu, MD Jiqian Xu, MD Prof Huaqing Shu, MD Prof Jia’an Xia, MD Prof Hong Liu, MD et al.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext

Selected quotes, technical data at link (what is lacking is detail on which patients got which antivirals):

The primary outcome was 28-day mortality after ICU admission. Secondary outcomes were incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS and shock were defined according to the guidance of WHO for novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).6 Acute kidney injury was identified on the basis of serum creatinine.11 Cardiac injury was diagnosed if the serum concentration of hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (hsTNI) was above the upper limit of the reference range (>28 pg/mL), measured in the laboratory of Jin Yin-tan Hospital....

We report on 52 critically ill patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, characterised by severe hypoxaemia. 32 (61·5%) of critically ill patients had died at 28 days. Of all included patients, 37 (71%) required mechanical ventilation and 35 (67%) had ARDS....

...The fundamental pathophysiology of severe viral pneumonia is severe ARDS. Men and people of an older age (>65 years) are more likely to develop ARDS than women or those of a younger age.16 Therefore, it is reasonable that the mortality at 28 days of severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is similar to the mortality of severe ARDS, which is near 50%.17...

... fever was not detected at the onset of illness in six (11·5%), and that it was in fact detected 2–8 days later. The delay of fever manifestation hinders early identification of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2—if patients are asymptomatic identification of suspected cases is more difficult.19, 20 The median duration from onset of symptoms to radiological confirmation of pneumonia was 5 (3–7) days, meaning that early or repeated radiological examinations are useful in screening patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.4...

…. we postulate that necrosis or apoptosis of lymphocytes also induces lymphocytopenia in critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. In a previous study, mainly in non-critical patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, 35% of patients had only mild lymphocytopenia,2 suggesting that the severity of lymphocytopenia reflects the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

[Black Agnes]

It might come to that.

South Korea did 90K tests over the weekend. Contact tracing and everything.

We got the ‘doom on you peasants’ press release last night.

[Black Agnes]

More proof it wrecks t cells.

[LilFarmer]

Singapore has 90 cases

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3818863/posts?page=435#435

Their health website is very good and kept up to date.

At this point I would feel safer in Singapore than here, as they are testing and contact tracing.

[bgill]

Italy found positives because, unlike the US, they looked for them.

Trump needs to get back home and do something about this. A happy face tweet to India would have been sufficient.

[blueplum]

Feb 24 - Lancet comment (for comments - justifying CCP policy? or applicable to Western societies?)

OVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at New Year

Simiao Chen Juntao Yang Weizhong Yang Chen Wang Till Bärnighausen

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30421-9/fulltext

Social distancing has been effective in past disease epidemics, curbing human-to-human transmission and reducing morbidity and mortality.11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 A single social distancing policy can cut epidemic spread, but usually multiple such policies—including more restrictive measures such as isolation and quarantine—are implemented in combination to boost effectiveness. For example, during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic, the New York City Department of Health enforced several social distancing policies at the same time, including staggered business hours, compulsory isolation, and quarantine, which likely led to New York City suffering the lowest death rate from influenza on the eastern seaboard of the USA.17...

….There are several lessons that can be drawn from China’s extension of the Lunar New Year holiday. First, countries facing potential spread of COVID-19, or a similar outbreak in the future, should consider outbreak-control “holidays” or closure periods—ie, periods of recommended or mandatory closure of non-essential workplaces and public institutions—as a first-line social distancing measure to slow the rate of transmission. Second, governments should tailor the design of such outbreak-control closure periods to the specific epidemic characteristics of the novel disease, such as the incubation period and transmission routes. Third, a central goal of an outbreak-control closure period is to prevent people with asymptomatic infections from spreading the disease.

[Black Agnes]

Singapore has responsible government officials that apparently care whether their citizens live or die.

[Jed Eckert]

From Wikipedia: 2019–20 Coronavirus Outbreak By Country and Territory

Have to wonder why Iran is suddenly spiking so high in deaths relative to thoses infected and Hong Kong is so low.

2019–20 coronavirus outbreak by country and territory^[1]

Country or territory[a]	Confirmed	Deaths	Recoveries[b]
Mainland China[c]	77,150	2,593	24,942
South Korea	833	8	22
International conveyance[d]	691	3	1
Italy	229	7	2
Japan	154	1	23
Singapore	90	0	53
Hong Kong	79	2	19
Iran	64	12	3
United States	35	0	5
Thailand	35	0	21
Taiwan	30	1	5
Australia	22	0	11
Malaysia	22	0	18
Germany	16	0	14
Vietnam	16	0	15
United Arab Emirates	13	0	3
United Kingdom	13	0	8
France	12	1	10
Canada	10	0	3
Macau	10	0	6
Kuwait	3	0	–
Philippines	3	1	2
India	3	0	3
Israel	2	0	–
Oman	2	0	–
Russia	2	0	2
Spain	2	0	2
Afghanistan	1	0	–
Bahrain	1	0	–
Iraq	1	0	–
Lebanon	1	0	–
Sweden	1	0	–
Belgium	1	0	1
Cambodia	1	0	1
Egypt	1	0	1
Finland	1	0	1
Nepal	1	0	1
Sri Lanka	1	0	1
37 territories	79,574	2,629	25,177
As of 24 February 2020

[freeangel]

Thanks for that answer. It makes me feel better.

[blueplum]

my spidey senses say that Trump is in India looking out for our interests in the medical sector - remember that China is pressuring India to commit to selling 100% of their entire 2020 production of their critical need products to China

[Black Agnes]

Because apparently it doesn’t just kill Asians.

[Black Agnes]

I hope you’re correct.

Hopefully he’s there to get them to make the Gilead compound.

[9YearLurker]

He’d better be!

[bgill]

No face masks, no tests and no meds will help. Well, gee, thanks CDC. Might as well hop a plane and camp out on Pelosi’s doorstep until I die.

[bgill]

We can only hope.

[Black Agnes]

Having watched FBI/CIA and State try to take down Trump, do we think any other government agencies wouldn’t try their hand at that?

Trump and the mean republicans cut their budget so they’re not going to do anything to help the rest of us.

[blueplum]

Nothing like good news on a Monday morning, eh? ;)