[SeekAndFind]

Severe coronavirus cases seem to be rare, and some cases go unreported

Shoppers at a supermarket following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, on February 10. China Daily via REUTERS

Of the patients in the Chinese CDC report, only 2,087 — 2.3% of all cases — developed symptoms the report defined as "critical": respiratory failure, septic shock, or organ failure. All of the deaths came from that group.

"In severe cases, you basically flood your lungs and you can't breathe," Dr. Matthew Frieman, an associate professor who researchers coronaviruses at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told National Geographic. "That's how people are dying." 

Overall, however, the COVID-19 fatality rate is far lower than that of past coronavirus epidemics. Based on the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases so far, it appears to be about 2%. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), by contrast, killed 9.6% of those infected, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) killed 34.4% of cases.

[Ken H]

Killjoy. Doom and gloom is so much more fun.

[JonPreston]

And here comes an article constructed on #FakeNumbers from communist China.

flu

[null and void]

Translation: The actual number of infected is at least 4x the number of confirmed cases, with the sub-clinical out and about spreading the virus.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[Red Badger]

... some never show no symptoms.

Are there no editors at Business Insider?....................

[iontheball]

A mild case leaves open the question of whether once infected always infected like the herpes and chicken pox viruses because there are documented cases of getting this flu a second time. Mild cases are a good thing but also permits an infected individual a greater means to spread around the virus by being able to carry on daily activities.

[the_Watchman]

I’ve been following the John Hopkins site since the second week of January. Some non-Chinese cases seem to be lingering a really long time. It is easier to follow cases in the States since they give the cases by city. There is an unrecovered case in Phoenix which has lasted 6 weeks.

Many countries have had cases which have been lingering for over 6 weeks.

It occurs to me that countries have an incentive to under report recoveries. Any country which has a record of clearing cases quickly could become a magnet for people escaping highly involved areas or quarantines. It would be better to not report recovered cases in order to keep the influx of prospective patients down.

[Hoffer Rand]

Are they contagious even when asymptomatic? That would be truly frightening.

[WildHighlander57]

If it’s mild, then why the drastic quarantines?

[Jim Noble]

The study also found that infected people could show no symptoms at all — that was the case for 1.2% of the patients

Key language: 1.2% OF THE PATIENTS. Most infected people who are asymptomatic ARE PROBABLY NOT PATIENTS, so asymptomatic infections are probably being undercounted.

[ScottfromNJ]

“About 80% of novel coronavirus cases are mild”

The first wave of the Spanish flu was pretty much the same.

[WildHighlander57]

If it’s mild, then why the drastic quarantines?

[DoughtyOne]

Convid-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

File XLS

Please take not of the drop in reports of new cases. It is Mainland China
related, and is making these questionable numbers from the start, look
even worse.

In the last day or so the leadership of China stated they have done a
a lot of work to end COVID-19, and local Wuhan leaders would be held
responsible for reports of new cases.