Posted on 02/03/2020 4:20:57 PM PST by GulfMan
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health told CNBC on Monday that a quarter of China’s coronavirus cases require intensive treatment.
“About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” said the director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The NIH is part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
> The quick reaction makes me wonder if this was an escape from the lab.
Yep, very strange indeed. However, assuming we survive this China has got to stop this backward ass society of their eating anything and everything and life creatures like bats and snakes right along side the fish on ice with absolutely no quality control or standards what-so-ever. They’re going to kill us all. To be honest their people would be better served with a MacDonald’s on every corner, the world would be a safer place.
It would not surprise me if the consumption was already illegal. That just means ordinary citizens are not allowed to eat it.
I see opportunity in crisis. Should nCov rip through a homeless camp or too, it will spell the end to public tolerance of stupid ACLU ideas regarding locking up homeless mentally ill and junkies.
It’s always been a public health issue, but people have forgotten what happens when you let mentally or morally incompetent people turn the streets into sewers.
We are one epidemic away from the Gods of the Copybook Headings.
Implicit in your analysis is the quantum of coronavirus cases in the States equaling the number of influenza patients. You're also assuming a fatality rate of 7% for those so diagnosed: as of today, per the Johns Hopkins map, there are 20,704 confirmed cases and 427 so deceased, or a 2.1% fatality rate.
There are a lot of factors that go into contracting influenza vs coronavirus. For example, there are almost NO precautions we take in the US when it comes to influenza aside from extra hand washing during the flu season. That's why, in part, so many people get the flu.
If Americans adopt precautionary measures for coronavirus like not going to work, then the likelihood comes way down.
But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.
If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 21MM seeking treatment, you get 12,600 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.1% fatality rate, we get 265 dead people in America.
That'd be bad, but it's not 375k.
Fauci on the samne program: "There are probably a lot more people who were infected in China who have not been really counted ... because they were either asymptomatic or their symptoms were so light that they didn't come to the attention of health authorities," Fauci said. "The number is probably much larger."
If that is true, then, as Fauci said in the interview, there are a lot more unreported cases. That will lower the death rate as more of the current cases raise it.
Bottom line is that if it spreads as easily as flu, then 2% is bad (20 times worse than flu). If it doesn't spread easily then the death rate will climb as the current cases reach their conclusion.
You’re also assuming a fatality rate of 7% for those so diagnosed: as of today, per the Johns Hopkins map, there are 20,704 confirmed cases and 427 so deceased, or a 2.1% fatality rate.
The 2.1% fatality rate you cite is just plain bad math. The most you can say there is that out of the 20,704 cases, only 427 are deceased *already*. That is not a diseases’ fatality rate.
“Which makes you wonder at the choice of inserts(if what I have read is correct and not just speculation)....do you totally get rid of it even if you survive the first round.”
No, this is no ordinary virus. The Chinese are scared crapless about it for a very good reason - we just don’t know precisely what that reason is, but it isn’t something that’s good for us.
Here’s the latest as of just before the time I posted this:
There are currently 23,812 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities.
It isn’t getting better - that’s about 3,800 new cases off of a roughly 20,000 base in one day, a 19% increase.
Since last night at 21:30 PST, there is the breakdown: 02/03/2020 21:30 20,613 cases 02/04/2020 14:30 3,338 new cases still accruing... 02/04/2020 14:30 65 new deaths still accruing... New cases: 15.75% still accruing... New deaths: 15.22% still accruing... Increase percentages for new death for the last seven+ days: 28 35.38% 29 28.50% 30 25.61% 31 16.35% 01 28.08% 02 19.38% 03 18.52% 04 15.75% still accruing for the day...
Increase percentages for NEW CASES for the last seven+ days:
28 35.38%
29 28.50%
30 25.61%
31 16.35%
01 28.08%
02 19.38%
03 18.52%
04 15.75% still accruing for the day...
As the pandemic progresses, High density environments must be avoided: dormitories, public events etc. Hospitals will concentrate the sick and if there’s an outbreak, more will be infected there than are cured. Just look at the relatively higher rate of infection among HCWs. If you’re really sick survival rate is low even with very good care and that will deteriorate as hospitals are overwhelmed.
Home quarantine would be the best solution for the individual and government.
If you’re ordered to go to a quarantine “hospital” camp or prison, you’re going to a death camp. That is a line in the sand and the government should realize that there will be a vigorous reaction to draconian measures if they take the Chinese approach.
Hauling sick people into vans will not going down the same way in US as it is in China. I hope the martial law people in the US police state understand that when there’s nothing to lose, people lose it and there are 300+ million guns in this country.
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