Posted on 01/26/2020 3:12:08 AM PST by LibWhacker
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the averag… https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 )
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! Doctors warn China coronavirus carriers may show no symptoms of illness CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
vinegar, malt vinegar, and soap is all you need my FRiend.
The only virus killer stronger than plain old white vinegar is bleach. Vinegar kills viruses because it’s acidic. When something with a ph of 6.6 mixes with a ph of 2.1, you get a ph of about 3.4, which destroys the protective ‘shell’ of the virus. Pretty neat, huh? And it’s cheap cheap cheap. Keep the surface wet for 4 min don’t just dab and dash. You can wash clothes and clean shoes with it, you can cider-vinegar-rinse your hair, too (but on surfaces that can etch, use soap and water instead).
Soap and water when combined works to surround viruses on a molecular level (has to do with polarity) and lets those nasties slip off the skin and down the drain without taking too much of your good skin bacteria with them. It doesn’t matter what brand of bar soap it is, as long as it’s not anti-bacterial, not dishwashing detergent and not lye soap which is too caustic for skin. And soap is also super cheap.
Then, with all that money you save on not buying alcohol, you can go buy the real thing. Because a crisis must be met with a proper martini in hand.
I still have some Tom Ridge brand duct tape and plastic in my basement. (not really)
Thx...I keep wondering about all the numbers being thrown around
The problem is even well trained Rn’s and MD’s have problems with these masks.
Since our eyes can be a transfer site, you need a protective eye mask.
One way to protect our selves is to use good surgical gloves when we go out in the public and never rub your eyes, remove/replace your eye glasses or sun glasses with bare hands.
Then, the problem becomes how do you get the gloves off without spreading any viruses. Next, how do you safely dispose of the gloves and get them off properly?
I use the 95 masks when we have the smoke from our forest/brush fires in California, and when we have pollen storms that can make a clean vehicle look like a green/yellow pollen carrier in a hour after having it washed.
Where do I buy them, from Amazon. The hardware stores never carry enough of them.
The problem is even well trained Rn’s and MD’s have problems with these masks.
Since our eyes can be a transfer site, you need a protective eye mask.
One way to protect our selves is to use good surgical gloves when we go out in the public and never rub your eyes, remove/replace your eye glasses or sun glasses with bare hands.
Then, the problem becomes how do you get the gloves off without spreading any viruses. Next, how do you safely dispose of the gloves and get them off properly?
I use the 95 masks when we have the smoke from our forest/brush fires in California, and when we have pollen storms that can make a clean vehicle look like a green/yellow pollen carrier in a hour after having it washed.
Where do I buy them, from Amazon. The hardware stores never carry enough of them.
I think, since they can’t nuke us, that the ChiComs would be happy to start a panic over here that would do a number on our economy, cause Trump supporters to doubt their president, to put the kibosh on Trump rallys for a while...
I’m not saying that there isn’t an outbreak.
I’m saying that someone is trying to stampede the American public. And that the ChiComs are party to it.
By infecting and killing their own population and possibly wrecking their own economy along the way.
That makes tons of sense.
And my grandpappy..........
You know what the ChiComs likely call what they’re doing to their own populace: Good practice.
Here’s an experiment to illustrate the problem. Put on an N-95 mask (assuming you can do it properly and have passed a rigorous fit test) a gown and gloves. Now have someone smear the outside of your gear with chocolate syrup. Your task is to get the mask gown and gloves off and into a biohazard bag without getting any chocolate syrup on your skin or clothes. What do you think your chances are. It takes a lot of training and practice
Time for a Musical Interlude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy4HA3vUv2c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhUkGIsKvn0
They may not care about the people, but they definitely care about their money. Xi Jinping publicly saying “grave situation” and “accelerating” while quarantining major cities and tens of millions of people is not conducive to healthy economic activity.
Here’s an experiment to illustrate the problem. Put on an N-95 mask (assuming you can do it properly and have passed a rigorous fit test) a gown and gloves. Now have someone smear the outside of your gear with chocolate syrup. Your task is to get the mask gown and gloves off and into a biohazard bag without getting any chocolate syrup on your skin or clothes. What do you think your chances are. It takes a lot of training and practice.
Good luck, and if you try this, we hope that you like chocolate.
It has a lot of useful information on treatment, their experience with patients, etc.
You can read it here
Hopefully efforts in China and elsewhere to reduce the spread of the virus will succeed. It looks somewhat difficult to treat.
Finally some reasonable data not internet hype
Wear N95 masks (80 % more effective then nothing), protective eye wear (sealed around eyes) and gloves (doctor examination gloves). When you get back to the car, throw mask, gloves and eye wear into trash. Spray 5 % bleach on hands. Rub hands together thoroughly. Rinse with water and soap. Then get into your car and drive away. Keep your shoes in the garage.
Recent tests show 80 % less likely to be infected with the mask. I think it’s a virus density issue. You can fight off a few of the critters over time, but not a lot of them in a short time. They will overwhelm defenses.
Right. Because the US government is so much more trustworthy then China.
But thermal detection will let you know who has a flu. Right ?
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